Friday Forecast

120 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
Changes over the next 5 days but timing of things allows a great weekend ahead. First today it takes some time to get rid of low level moisture with areas of fog and lots of cloudiness gradually dissipating for more sun, then high pressure dominating for a great weather weekend. By later Monday and especially Tuesday the weather will go downhill as a disturbance from the west and the remnants of Florence approach and move in, with a return to some wet weather. Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of fog early. Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny finish. Highs 72-80. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog redevelop. Lows 58-64. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 74-82. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog redevelop. Lows 58-64. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 74-82. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, possible rain at night. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain or showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
Fair weather returns September 19-20 before a front moves through around September 21 with a shower threat, then more fair weather after that. Temperatures near to above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
Mild with fair weather to start, a shower threat, then a shot of cooler air to finish the period in a fairly progressive pattern.

120 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    I heard one of the mets say that we could see either heavy rain from the remnants of Florence or just showers.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks like Wilmington is/was the strike point.

    Re: Lawrence, Andover and N. Andover
    I smell a big bleepin rat the size of an elephant with the facata gas company.
    yes, I don’t have all of the facts, but this simply CANNOT happen!!!!
    I can rant all day on the subject of corporate GREED!!!!

    1. Sure does seem as if Wilmington is the strike point. With all of her shenanigans, Flo may well end up exactly where she was forecast to end up.

      Re the other comment….something huge happened. A friend wisely said that it will be a miracle if the gas company will have trouble surviving this. I was surprised, and think those present were also, that the gas company didn’t have a rep at the briefing.

      That aside, I cannot believe the how smoothly the coordinated response went. There were departments from all over this state, including as far away as here, and from New Hampshire as well. Every individual involved was beyond exceptional.

      1. I heard that the FBI is investigating as well. I hope nothing criminal occurred. Bad enough if it was accidental.

        1. If it’s criminal, it’s criminal neglect.

          My gut says that the company shorted funds for
          required maintenance and/or safety measures in lieu
          of profits. But as I said before, I do not have the facts.
          It just smells that way to me.

      1. As much as I support unions, that would DISGUST me!
        Simply NOT right! It’s one thing to be in a dispute with the company, but quite another to put customers lives at risk.

        I know that National Grid has locked out workers in a contract
        dispute, but I don’t know the situation with Columbia Gas.

      1. Agreed !

        The wind hints that the center is trying to slip just south of Wilmington, with the wind veering from NW to NE.

        If the center were to go north of them, the wind would be backing from the N and NW to more westerly.

  7. You can see Florence almost perfectly paralleling the coast for the past few hours this morning. That’s no accident; in a case where the steering flow is this weak, the frictional convergence associated with the land surface becomes the dominant steering mechanism. It’s crawling southwest right now.

    1. I have read and heard 30 year meteorologists explain this concept with far less clarity. I am stealing what you wrote for future explanations!

  9. From Judah:

    Giddy up! GFS predicting canonical El Nino pattern with positive PNA, deep Aleutian low, ridging in the West and troughing in the East to end September. Now if we can just hold that pattern for the next six months, I would be all smiles.

      1. He said: Now if we can just hold that pattern for the next six months

        so, my guess would be IF that pattern held, then a snowy
        Winter would be possible.

        1. Yes, I agree and have noticed that over the years
          that I have been following him. It’s too bad.

          It’s really nice that we get UNBIASED information here from TK, yourself and WxWatcher and sometimes SAK.
          A does of reality.

          Thanks

    3. He wishes for it, just like we wish for stuff, nothing two g with that. It becomes a problem he says things not true

  10. Per US tide guages

    Havelock, NC (looks to be near Morehead City) had a max storm surge of 5.1 ft a few hours ago.

    Wilmington, NC surge is slowly building, now up to 3.25 ft on the ocean side. This water is starting to flow up the Cape Fear River. 19 miles up river in downtown Wilmington, the river is running 1.6 ft above expected value.

    I think Wilmington’s max surge will be early to late afternoon today when there wind becomes SE and S. It does help that high tide is at 11am, thus going out this afternoon.

  11. I have never heard of Columbia Gas. Are they a relatively new company? My gas is from National Grid. In fact, I just sent off the bill this morning.

    2. Wikipedia says:
      Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, known as Bay State Gas before 2010, is a supplier of retail natural gas to over 300,000 customers in parts of Massachusetts surrounding Springfield, Brockton, and Lawrence. It is a subsidiary of NiSource.

      Maybe they are like a shoddy building contractor – the only way to get rid of the bad reputation is to keep changing the name of the company.

  13. What happened yesterday with the gas is another reason to go away from fossil fuels. Even if this was an accident, even if no one was at fault, just shows how bad these systems are

      1. we actually are already moving away from fossil fuels, we actually have infrastructure that can be altered to clean energy. We just need the dummies to get out of the way. Such as the tax breaks for the dirty fuel industry. If these deniers are also so much against government interference, then why are they the first to help the polluters? 😉

  16. Kind of interesting seeing the remnants of Florence in 96 to 120 hrs and a northern stream disturbance and whether they can phase before passing by New England.

    It doesn’t happen on the GFS and it begins to happen near New England on the EURO.

    Will be interested to watch the trends on this.

  17. Bay State / Columbia gas was a client of the private company I worked for for years. I did not provide them their information. That was a different department from the one I worked in.

  18. Tropical Topics…

    Looks like we are going to get that disturbance from the Caribbean all the way across the Gulf with no real development. Good news.

    Isaac is in a hostile environment and should travel as a depression for quite a while. It may find new life if it should reach the Gulf of Mexico but that remains to be seen.

    Helene and Joyce may merge as they lose tropical characteristics. Yes, we have seen that before. No they don’t join forces and add wind speeds together. 😉

    Florence is doing what Florence was expected to do.

      3. He would not win a presidential election, heck his own party in general hates him especially southernors and plain state republicans. They think he is a liberal while the democrats think of him as a republican. In state politics, you can have the middle guy but if you want to survive in the national level of president, you gotta be on one side or another. You saw that in the last election. Baker would not win.

        1. Ahhhh you missed the lesson from our founders on country over party. It isn’t often I disagree with you but in this case I could not disagree with you more. We can discuss elsewhere though. I won’t contunue here out of respect for TK.

              3. And just to be clear here. I didn’t mean to be snarky at all or start a political brouha. I’ve always disliked (for lack of a stronger word) DJT. Always thought (even back in the 80s and 90s) that he was a selfish bastard. All about himself. Just so happens that he is now the President.

      1. I have also. Funny How a state considered liberal can do best with a republican governor. If the rest of the country were smart, they’d simply follow our lead

  20. With all due respect, I think Judah may have jumped the gun. That trough he was referring to only showed up on a couple runs. All the others have been a much milder look.

    1. the eps also have cooler weather going into October. I don’t think it will be as cool as they are putting it out to be as well, I think this ridge is going to be extremely stubborn.

      1. Now back to the weather which we have barely touched on today

        The rain and the already saturated ground are causing horrible problems in NC. And even though there have been rescues, I’m hearing there are not many. So people listened for the most part

  22. I am a huge supporter of the president.

    I actually wrote TK on my ballot when I voted for president back 2016.

    I am not lazy and I don’t drink kool aid. I make informed decisions and not the trash I hear from the Media

    Trump will win by 20 over anyone who decides to run. The liberal voice of Massachusetts is not the voice of the country. Obviously.

    I sleep well at night.

  23. I love seasons. Perspective is a really curious thing. There are times when 76 in the house seems hot so we tuen on the AC. But then there are times 76 seems cooler and we turn off the AC and ceiling fan and turn on the fireplace.

  24. Arlington just put on a nice fireworks display and none of the shells they fired had anything to do with politics. 🙂

    1. I have a fire going and it has nothing to do with politics. After a difficult day it is what the doctor ordered…because heaven knows he didn’t do anything else well.

      I may be wrong but do I detect a hidden message in your comment. I can be quite astute ya know. Brings me to a question I asked on FB and am ashamed today no one answered. So,..who said

      Boy, I got vision, and the rest of the world wears bifocals.

  25. Whenever Howie Carr mentions Gov. Baker in his (Boston Herald) column, he always refers to the governor as “Tall Deval” whatever that means. 😉

  26. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJ6SRDWJxbNQ8AUwRx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTEzMmllbWVyBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM2BHZ0aWQDTlNSUEMwXzEEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1537001667/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.wunderground.com%2fweather-radar%2funited-states%2fnc%2fmorehead-city%2fmhx%2f/RK=2/RS=wZRTxTeZdedii7tvXF4M088F8tU-

    Band west of Morehead city up through Jacksonville ….. flash flood emergency with water rescues in progress …….

    2nd year in a row a hurricane has made landfall, then crawled along dumping record rainfall amounts.

    1. I’m afraid the flooding is going to get even nastier.

      I saw mrytle beach had some. I haven’t had a chance today to see how far north, south and west it will spread.

      1. Am I correct that the center is over myrtle beach? I’m hearing heavy Bands of rain from Raleigh Durham to morehead city and into Lumberton

  27. The totally embarrassing response to Coastal’s comments tonight have reinforced and reaffirmed my decision I made months ago to mostly leave this blog and no longer post. I use it for occasional weather info and weather info only. The daily fodder I can do without. Good night all

    1. Sorry about the crap storm….and for my part in it. I’ll be bidding you all goodbye also…just too much division out here in the world today for civil discourse (myself included). I won’t let the door hit my ass on the way out 🙂

    2. I uncharacteristically will not apologize. I made it very clear that I support Governor Baker. My view of the Governor is one anyone who knows me is familiar with. My opinion…which I expressed politely….is something I am entitled to and will not apologize for. It was not political. It was shared as support for his decision. I am also heartsick that an 18 year old was killed the other night.

      I have offered multiple times to help with the cost of the blog and also the work involved in maintaining it. I run a business blog so am quite qualified. The one thing I feel very badly about is your health. But you know that I worry.

      I am also sorry that the very many fine people on this blog are grouped with the few who could care less about the blog, the others here or you….and frankly weather in general. It is a shame when some of the fine people here…such as Keith….leave because of those few.

      Leaving is not my choice. I know my strengths and I know my weaknesses. I am stubborn as hell. I know those same few would like me gone. But at the moment they are getting what they hoped for anyway because I guarantee they are loving this. So if I must, I will let the door hit me on the way out. Please do remember, however, that respect goes in two directions.

      1. That original Baker comment was not a problem at all. I agreed with what he did too and even if I hadn’t at least I know I’m able to have a give and take as you are. But there are many who cannot. This is not about grouping everybody together, this is about my health. That is my #1 priority.

        I made the statement about no favorites right now because that just involves more stress that I don’t need. Everybody knows individually where they stand with me.

        And you know what type of a person I am beyond just this place.

        Also, I’m not sure if you saw that I had labeled the original comment as innocent and well within the rules. It pertained to an action related to a disaster. The trigger point was the first comment somewhere under that which was directed specifically at painting him in a negative light because of his political party, and of course you know what happens from there. That is where I stepped back because I won’t partake in those discussions, here or not here. I have in the past, but no longer.

        But I have to do this for MY OWN HEALTH REASONS.

        1. I do know what type of person you are….I thought you knew what type of person I am. You do not have to yell at me about health. I know very well how health can impact a person.

          1. I wasn’t yelling at anyone. I’m not sure why you’re fighting back at me. I didn’t fight with you at all. I strongly stated my reasons for doing what I did.

            That was it.

            I have health issues and a death in the family. That is above anything related to this blog right now.

            I’m actually very surprised you took this stance with me in public like this.

            I never singled you out.

            1. I take full caps as yelling. Most do.

              I am simply trying to explain and thought I had done so respectfully. So time to move on.

              Take care of yourself. I tell you that repeatedly. My best advice would be what I’ve said many times in the past….pin rules to the blog, enlist others to help (I know there are people who would) and charge to offset your costs.

              1. Understood.

                Usually when I use caps it’s for emphasis but I can see why it would be seen that way.

                No ill feelings just taking a break. Got alot going on here.

                1. I know and I apologize if my expressing my opinion added to it. Although, if I didn’t express my opinion, you’d probably worry more.

                  As to other comments. You know darned well you are appreciated. Shut off comments and move away. I for one won’t make any more. But know that you don’t have to do this alone.

  30. Commenting will be disabled for the next 2 blog posts. If anyone has a weather related question, use tk8888@hotmail.com to ask it. I will not be taking any questions about my decision to suspend commenting.

    Comments will be reopened with Monday’s update.. Thank you.

  31. I have to be blunt here and if this upsets anyone I’m going to have to say I’m sorry, but too bad.

    I have run this blog for years now, FREE OF CHARGE TO YOU, but it costing me money and time, my expertise, which I spent years gaining experience to acquire. I’m not looking for sympathy, but I think I deserve respect. I don’t want ANYBODY privately contacting me to play favorites. There are currently no favorites. I have to deal with this MY way, and I will. This is my blog, and you are guests here. Nobody is making you be here.

    I am frankly appalled that an innocent comment regarding support for something a leader did to help residents in a disaster, in which, by the way, A LIFE WAS LOST, degenerated into a petty political squabble. Enough is enough. I have been very sick for 7 weeks and I really don’t need stress preventing me from getting better.

    You can leave if you want. From now on, it’s iron fist time. I’ve had it. I’m extremely disappointed. And everything I said here is FAIR. NO DEBATE! Sorry.

    I am going to run this blog for the benefit of those who are grateful enough to respect my rules. But be aware there will now be a zero tolerance policy regarding these rules. Thank you.

  32. BOTTOM LINE is this…

    I asked people to refrain from political debate here. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. What did we get? Political debate. End of story.

    I made my decision for the sake of my health and my blog. If nobody can respect that, then it really is a shame when it comes down to it.

    Nobody pays for this site except ME. I don’t have to do this. I think I have been more than generous in giving my time and my knowledge FREE OF CHARGE when I could be making $ on it. And it’s not about $ anyway, it’s about respect. Yesterday, I got none from anybody who broke my rules.

  33. To top everything off I woke up in a-fib this morning, first time in over 7 weeks.

    Yeah. After giving and giving and giving and giving and GIVING. I think it’s time to take care of me a little bit.

  34. Oh yes, on top of that, a death in the family. YOUNG, left 2 young children and a widow.

    PRIORITIES, people!

    1. Sorry to hear this!! And yes taking care of yourself is a priority. I sent you a weather related email this AM. Please ignore and take care of YOU.

      1. I’ll get to it soon. I’m still fairly weak but have to take care of some stuff with my mom today. We also just had a plane crash on the other side of the city about 1/4 mile from that spot on Zion I always went to.

    2. I’m very sorry to hear about all of this. I wish I never made the post, which was informational only for anyone on the blog that lives in that area or knows someone who does. From now on I will only post about the weather and of course appreciation to you for this blog. Please take care and feel better hopefully soon!

      1. You did nothing wrong. It could have just as easily been the governor responding to a weather related issue (blizzard, tornado, flood, etc.). Not to speak for TK but I bet he would agree.

      2. It’s not any one person’s fault. This was a group effort, some of it intentional, some not. Those who intended to contribute to it know full well who they are. I’m sure some of them are ready to jump on me for saying this, but whatever. They can bring it on, in EMAIL.

        I’ll be the last one standing, as will WHW.

  35. Take good care of yourself, TK. Your health is priority number one.

    I have appreciated ALL your efforts.

    I also hope that none of my posts added fuel to the fire, so to speak.

  38. …and yet in all of this I think some people view me as the bad guy. Nice. Yeah, I’m so mean and nasty for giving this blog every day since Dec 26 2010. Wow.

    1. Honestly, enough already. You know darn well we appreciate all you do on this blog. Since this is affecting your health I strongly suggest you leave commenting off and concentrate on you.

      I am very sorry for your recent loss and hope you can get some rest to restore your health.

  39. STOP…..No one thinks (at least on my end) that you are a crazy person and mean and nasty. Just stop. Walk away from the blog for a bit…stop people from posting even on this thread. I apologized last night for whatever roll I had in this…please don’t make me regret an apology…it was heartfelt and I’m concerned. That’s all I’ll say and leave it at that.

    1. I accept all apologies made.

      It’s unfortunate there will be some that never make them because they truly believe they are never in error even if that knowingly disrespect rules. Again they know who they are. That’s all I have to say about them.

  40. I apologize for voicing my support for Trump. I didn’t appreciate Dave taking a swipe at him for no reason so I responded.

    1. What it really comes down to is I don’t care so much who supports who. We live in a free country. We can support or loathe to or liking. I don’t expect everybody to get along perfectly here. But I don’t think it’s too much to ask from anyone and everyone to just leave the politics aside.

      Some of us may not agree on where the line is but I think that in itself can be worked out.

      I do appreciate what you said here. Thank you.

      I just want to be able to move forward soon and with hopefully everyone being able to keep from that stuff here but take those conversations to a private place or a forum made for them.

      I just want to do the weather here.

      1. Thanks.

        Take care of your health and of course be thee for your family.

        I look forward to harassing this blog through another winter season. 🙂

  41. K folks I’m doing some yard work then taking myself out for a cheap dinner and fireworks. One more full day then comments will be back. There will be a forecast update tomorrow.

    1. It’s in the process of being corrected. I have no reason to believe it can’t be as it should be starting tomorrow.

      All I need is for everybody to abide by the rules. The rest is easy.

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