Monday Forecast

74 Comments

7:22AM

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COMMENTARY
Florence was a serious storm, make no mistake about it. However, if you look at the parameters of the system, it generally under-performed in all areas if you take an average message that the bulk of media was sending in the days leading up to it. While I agree that it is always better to prepare for the worst, it was also clear from a meteorological perspective that some of the things being talked about were simply not going to take place. Are we going to treat every hurricane now like it’s coming in as the “worst ever”? This is not going to work. It will add to complacency. While there were (and still are in some cases) areas that received very serious flooding due to rainfall, many other areas pretty much guaranteed to did not, and this will result in ignorance come the next storm, which will lead to trouble should things be serious in those very areas where the forecast is not taken seriously. But once again, we saw a whole lot of dramatics and a lot of lost realism. There were some good forecasts made out there, such as the storm weakening to a low end category 2 or high end category 1 before landfall, but also reminding the receivers of the forecast to not focus on just the category, or the top winds, because there were other aspects of the storm that were quite serious. Again, the quest for ratings has resulted in a failure to educate. One of most disturbing examples that I witnessed during this event was a well-known reporter for a well-known cable network basically faking or over-dramatizing the impact of the wind during a live report, standing as if it was difficult to keep their balance in the tremendous onslaught coming into their face. Only problem is, the wind was at their back, and the footing maneuvers will never be nominated for an Oscar. And I didn’t even have to mention the 2 people casually strolling by just feet behind the reporter, without much difficulty whatsoever. Oops. Again, make no mistake that Florence was a serious storm, but in the big picture, Florence was no Hugo, was no Andrew, was no Hazel, was no Katrina, was no Harvey, etc. Let’s label things as they are. Florence, was simply Florence. My best wishes for all impacted for as quick and complete a recovery as is possible.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
One more nice day to start the new week, and then we’ll be dealing with the remains of Florence in the form of heavy rain on Tuesday as they track right across southern New England, loaded with tropical moisture. Flooding may be an issue as this system passes, but there will not be any significant wind issues. Behind it will come a shot of drier and somewhat cooler air during the middle of the week before a quick warm-up follows just ahead of a cold front at the end of the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Patchy fog early otherwise clouds break for sun. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light SW with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Showers arriving after midnight. Humid. Lows 63-69. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Overcast with widespread showers, becoming heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms especially from early afternoon to evening. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers diminishing. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 58-64. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Gradual clearing. Drying out. Highs 67-74. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers at night. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
High pressure builds in with mainly fair weather over the weekend of September 22-23, but it may start and end with lots of clouds. A disturbance in the area brings clouds and a possible shower September 24 then mostly fair weather for the end of this period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)
Some wet weather early in the period followed by a shot of somewhat cooler air toward the final days of the month or the very start of October. Low confidence forecast at this point.

74 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Early idea is that the axis may orient itself straight down the middle of MA starting out a little north of the Pike then drifting to the south, favoring afternoon to very early evening. Will watch the short range guidance for some computerized opinions.

  3. Came back at a good time I guess.

    Anyway…TK how much rain do you think we get in Woburn? Is there a peak window or pretty random?

      1. Ok thanks. The flooding garage curse followed me to my new house even though the driveway doesn’t grade in the direction. Have to watch a storm like this. Plus my new lawn isn’t fully taken yet.

  4. Long range on the EURO, days 8 – 10, looks more like early fall.

    Strong low pressure in the northern plains/midwest and a large, cool Canadian high just north of New England.

    1. That mountain snow has shown up on several runs. Shot of chilly air may be enough to do that (mountain flurries).

  7. I’m headed down to Sarasota Friday hopefully no home grown mischief. Was at the beach yesterday water temp was 71 down here at theRI.south coast, still very comfortable to go in the water.

      1. You staying local or are you traveling? If around here…are you seeing warmth around then or just go regardless of the temp?

  8. those Colorado lows seem to be the dominant feature for the near future, periods of cool dry weather followed by warming/unsettled weather as lows pass west and north of the area.

  12. I mean this post as a measure of appreciation ….

    I hope we will hear from our friends JpDave, Vicki, JJ, Philip and other regular bloggers, who I enjoy talking weather with. You’ve become important members of the WHW family.

    If I have forgotten someone, please forgive me.

    1. Everyone is encouraged to participate.

      My across the board decision was necessary for health and other personal reasons as well as getting things here under control.

      I am confident that it worked.

      The contributions are always very appreciated but I also run this site for hundreds of readers that do not comment on the posts, renting from media figures to family members to people I’ll never know.

      1. I support what you did 1,000% TK and understand the important last paragraph.

        I just wanted to say something positive to those I mentioned above. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. Any stats on hurricanes and how often our area gets the remnants (like tomorrow)? Curious if it’s a majority of the time. Seems once they hit the coast they jet on up to us. Wondering if my assumption is correct.

    1. I don’t have hard numbers but I’d say over half the systems that land fall on the Southeast or Gulf Coast exit via New England as remnants simply because of our geographical location and the average position of the jet stream.

      1. Figured it was the jet stream. Like look how long Florence took once it hit the coast to make it’s way inland (many days)…and once it got far enough NW, it’s zooming on up. Thanks.

  17. Its getting warm and humid (I suppose it was yesterday too, but I was swimming in 70F ocean water and not in a classroom 🙂 )

    Not looking forward to the oppressive dewpoints tomorrow.

  18. EURO at 24 hrs (8 am tomorrow) shows a decent 30 kt (850 mb) jet punching up into southern areas.

    At 48 hrs, showing front or boundary not getting to far south and east of the area. Wonder if Wednesday might have some showers holding on in southeastern areas ?

      1. When do you think the bulk of the rain will be over tomorrow? Channel 7 had by the commute home but that seemed earlier than what I have heard…of course I would prefer earlier.

        1. I think those “forecasts” are really reflections of what models they are looping in their futurecast animations. They are vastly different. The NAM holds the rain in the Boston area through 7PM. The HRRR has it gone hours earlier. Honestly I’m leaning toward later, similar to the NAM’s timing.

  19. Josh Gordon to the Patriots trade is apparently happening, this from NFL network. I guess Bill saw the need for an explosive receiver on the outside. If anyone can make a receiver behave its the Patriots and Gordon has talent, now if its going to be a Cooks or not I am not sure, Cooks was an amazing receiver and we unfortunately only got him for a year but yesterday showed how much we need another receiver that needs more than 1 person covering them or they will double/tripple cover gronk.

    1. It never takes this team long to start making adjustments…
      I think a lot of people will question this move, but we’ll see.

      1. I agree, but I hope its like a Rodney Harrison type of deal in which everyone thought he was done and then turns it around here in New England.

  20. TK I hope your feeling better. I am glad to be able to comment once again.
    Radar lighting up in Richmond, VA area with multiple tornado warnings.

    1. In the last 3 days I have started heading rapidly in the right direction. I’m about half way back to remission now.

  22. …FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
    LATE TUESDAY NIGHT…

    The Flash Flood Watch continues for

    * Portions of northern Connecticut, Massachusetts, and northern
    Rhode Island, including the following areas, in northern
    Connecticut, Hartford, Tolland, and Windham. In Massachusetts,
    Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk,
    Northern Bristol, Northern Plymouth, Suffolk, and Worcester.
    In northern Rhode Island, Kent and Providence.

    * From late tonight through late Tuesday night

    * Bands of torrential rain showers are expected to develop very
    late tonight and continue through Tuesday afternoon.
    Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are anticipated…
    but a narrow swath of 4 to 6 inches of rain is possible which
    may fall in a very short period of time.

    * The location of the heaviest rain remains uncertain. However…
    the potential for 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates exists.
    Depending on where the heaviest rain occurs…the potential
    exists for both small stream and urban flash flooding.

  23. TK,

    It is good to hear that your health is improving.

    I am an occasional poster to the blog. But, I want you to know that my wife and I are regular readers and appreciate all that you do. I am sure that there are many other people like us who benefit from your knowledge and generosity. Your straight-forward approach is refreshing!

    1. Thank you 🙂

      It’s hard to see something you work hard on degenerate and I melted down a little, which is rare. I’ve been under a lot of health stress lately, had a death in the family and just yesterday found out a neighbor across the street passed away. In all of this I haven’t missed one day of work and take care of my mom so it just can be a bit overwhelming. I’m fine though. 🙂

      1. To second that…today is the first I have posted since winter but I lurk on here a lot. Big brother is always watching ha. Sorry for all your troubles!

  26. Just came back last night from a weekend in the White Mtns and got caught up on the blog….yikes.

    TK, I am happy to hear that your health situation is getting back on the right track. My condolences on the loss in your family as well as your neighbor. And very much appreciate and admire your dedication to this blog even in stressful times like these. I am constantly reading even when I am not posting.

  27. Thought I would post a few pictures from Saturday. We hiked the Franconia Ridge and the weather was spectacular. Sunny and upper 70’s in the Notch, 60’s on the ridgeline at 5,000 feet with barely any wind and 70 mi. visibility. We lucked out big time!

    Looking south from Mt Lincoln along the ridgeline towards Little Haystack, Flume and Liberty:
    https://i.postimg.cc/mgJr1Tj6/IMG_8606.jpg

    Looking north from Lincoln towards Mt Lafayette:
    https://i.postimg.cc/5y2JkrpC/IMG_8625.jpg

    Looking back towards Lincoln from the summit of Lafayette:
    https://i.postimg.cc/dtzM8DMd/IMG_8629.jpg

    1. very high dewpoints and with what happened today in Virginia ….. hopefully we avoid seeing spin-up(s) tomorrow.

  31. No severe or tornado warnings in that tornado watch box down in D.C. Richmond area. Hopefully this will be it for tornado warnings as there were multiple ones just a few hours ago.

  33. neutral ENSO
    positive PDO
    negative AO
    negative EPO
    negative PNA
    would say could lead to some cool shots but nothing long lived. SE ridge will likely still be around.

    1. Perhaps a bit further north ….. some breaks in the clouds down here. I hope
      southern areas don’t see much sunshine.

  35. The northwest focus first was expected. Things shift southeast later. This won’t be an all out solid rain all day. It’s going to be in clusters and a main band that drifts to the southeast with time.

    Updating now…

  36. TK,

    Thanks for all that you do!

    Too much non sense around everywhere. Focus on what’s important in life. If someone posts a comment you don’t like just skip it and ignore the person. It’s pretty simple not every comment needs a reply.

    Have a Great Day!
    Tj

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