Tuesday Forecast

73 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
The remains of Florence move through today with some heavy showers. Some of the heaviest will fall in a short period of time especially late morning and midday to the north and west, a little later to the south and east, resulting in quick ponding of water and some flash flooding. It all pulls away to the southeast tonight but clearing will be slow to arrive on Wednesday. Finally a stronger push of cooler and drier air makes you think of autumn on Thursday before we get right back into warm and more humid air ahead of a cold front Friday. That front will return a drier air mass to the region by the start of the weekend. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy though there will be some sun early southeast and possibly some sun late northwest. Numerous showers and downpours focused north and west of Boston at first then shifting southeastward with time. Chance of a few thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers ending. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 58-64. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Gradual clearing. Drying out. Highs 67-74. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 49-56. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 63-69. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Risk of showers at night. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to around 80.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Fair and pleasant weather September 23 for the first full day of autumn. A boundary will be nearby September 24 with lots of clouds, then should push northward to allow warmer than average weather and mostly rain-free conditions for the balance of this period, though the boundary may begin to head back to the south at the very end of the period with a shower risk returning.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
Boundary nearby should make the final days of September unsettled before a push of cooler/drier air follows to start October.

73 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks! Still thinking 2-3” in Woburn? Bought temp damns for outside my garage but water is still getting in. Makes no sense at all.

    1. Yes but closer to 2 or maybe even a little less. Depends on how dense the heavy rain area gets that comes through later morning to early afternoon, which is a little quicker timing than I was thinking yesterday.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So far not much happening in the Boston Area. I see a rather large blob of heavy rain
    to the N&W. How much of this will translate southward, I do not know.

    I picked up a paltry 0.19 inch at my house over night and early this morning.
    Experienced some moderate drizzle on the way into the office.

    Here is latest radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=20&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25621225&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    NYC radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=20&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25621226&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  4. Thanks, TK.

    So far in Lunenburg we have 1.75″. What do you think we will end up with by the end of the day?

  7. Judah,
    I am always a little wary when a forecast seems to get stuck in the 11-15 day time-frame but GFS continues to advertise a fairly vigorous trough and seasonably appropriate chillier weather for the Eastern US as the month’s transition.

  10. Pouring here in Burlington. Even though my always accurate phone app says it’s only cloudy in Woburn the radar spins another tale…

    Sarcasm…

  11. 1. holy crap its dark, gusty, and extremely heavy rain. I know because my pool is up to the rim with water and it was lowered yesterday.
    2. In terms of what Judah said I would put what the teloconnections are and what I think which I posted last night.
    neutral ENSO
    positive PDO
    negative AO
    negative EPO
    negative PNA
    would say could lead to some cool shots but nothing long lived. SE ridge will likely still be around but not as strong as it has been.
    But also will say that most long range models show below normal temperatures 10 to 15 days out and been showing it for a while. I will also say that the GFS also shows 80s next week from Tuesday through Thursday as the euro has 60s. Euro has cool flow over us while keeping the warm air south, gfs pushes the warm air further north. TK what do you think will win?

  16. Tornado warning for Salem & Essex County.

    Here in Holden, had a single bolt of lightning strike near or on a house, which has caused, in no particular order, isolated power outages, a burning fence, malfunctioning traffic signal leading to a car crash, and (saving the best for last) a water main break.

    Oh, and throw in some torrential rainfall too.

  17. No confirmed tornado according to the statement that went with the tornado warning as it will expire 11:15 am with the storm moving into the water.

  19. Had an early meeting so I took it from home this morning and then left from Andover to drive to Westborough around 10:30. Wow! That was right when then heaviest red band was moving through, some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen. Roads immediately turned into raging rivers, now I have a better understanding of flash flooding! Luckily by the time I got down 495 a bit, it was back to just normal rain…

    As an aside, TK – Thank you so much for this blog… I was one of the first bloggers here, coming over early from the infamous TV weather blog, and I continue to look in every single day multiple times to check the forecast and the comments. I’m what I consider to be an “observational” poster… I can tell you whats going on outside the window right now, but typically I’m not analyzing the models or weighing in otherwise, although I do enjoy the many weather related posts from all the great contributors. Maybe a few more of us “watchers” will jump in a bit more in the future…

    Anyway, to you and all the weather posters, thanks and keep up the great work!

    TJA

    1. Thanks to you and all! I have gotten a lot of support the last few days and I appreciate it very much.

  20. Was just out for lunch. Plenty of rumbles of thunder, but nothing unusual at all. My comment. blah blah blah…
    Sure it’s worse elsewhere and I understand that, but here in the city, blah blah blah…

    0.94 inch at my house so far since last night. Big woof. Break out the ARK!
    Yes there is some more coming, but unless something bubbles up from the south
    and moves this way, I can’t see more than another 1/2 inch at the most.

    And yes, it comes within Eric’s range of 1-3 inches. 😀

  23. I’m not seeing what Judah is seeing regarding the GFS. I’m seeing that model predict a very mild pattern for the entire period with only brief cooler shots for a day here and there.

    I wonder if he mistook something, looked at the wrong model, archived data? Either that or I have no idea what I’M looking at. 😉

  24. Pouring again, in that yellow blob of echoes behind the thunderstorms. I think we received more rain than Boston, as there are some deep, deep puddles and parts of our HS fields had large lakes on them.

    1. End of event. You may see a little sun. I’m viewing blue sky to my west albeit a narrow strip of it.

  27. 2 more days until CPC updates its seasonal outlooks. I am wondering if they may chill December down in their outlook depending on the magnitude of El Nino and how much “Modoki” there is to it and when. I know the current El Nino forecast is for weak magnitude, onset 50% chance October / November and 75% chance by December.

  28. I love this blog! I read it every day and use it as my primary source for weather forecasts. I don’t post very often, but I just want to say thank you. It’s very nice out right now, cooling off and drying out a bit.

    1. Thank you. I’ve always enjoyed doing it. Moderating on my own is difficult. I had help for a while, but he got a job…

      But hey, blog moderation, taking care of mom, dealing with personal health issues, and working 5 days a week, no big deal. I got this. I’m a tough kid. 😉

      1. I’m not actually sure. I was going to make a comment about the Red Sox initially then decided not to, and for whatever reason I hit send instead of cancel. 🙂

        Long day.

          1. I hear you. Personally it’s been a rough stretch. I haven’t been able to do half of what I love to do on a daily basis, have been in great discomfort, am anemic, and lost far more weight than I wanted to. Cousin and neighbor passed away in same week each leaving a spouse and children behind. I normally deal with things very well but sometimes they can just really get on you and crush down. Health has been climbing back but today has been a bit of a set-back. I’m sure just temporary.

            1. Sorry to hear all that man. That’s a lot! You know I am close by if you need anything. Just shoot me an email.

  30. Seeing the upcoming weather …. perhaps these remnants of Florence bring about the end of either consistently warm summer temps or humid weather.

    If so, June 29th through September 18th was a pretty good run this year.

        1. Actually not so much GFS over Euro, but something I learned from the experts in my early years. I’m going with “persistence”. I don’t see enough to change my mind that the pattern is about to flip. I think we’ll get hints, but only hints, as we move into the early days of next month. But we are still in trough West, ridge East, for a while yet.

      2. Ok, we’ll take it. If our late afternoon’s are free, I like to go to the beach a bit after school.

        Sorry to read above about your bit of a health set back today. Hang in there and hopefully the upward trend resumes tomorrow.

        1. I’m going to be ok. Just a lot on me today so I’m feeling it. I am going to find a way back to the beach one way or another before the end of this month, if for nothing else just a walk and one more dip of the feet in the water.

          I have also decided to visit my favorite place, Hampton Beach, at least once per month during the next year so I can take a photo of the same exact spot and then put 12 of them together to show a Hampton year. 🙂

  31. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
    524 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2018

    …NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY CONCLUDED THAT DAMAGE IN SAUGUS,
    MASSACHUSETTS LATE THIS MORNING WAS FROM STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS…

    A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM LOOKED FIRST-HAND AT DAMAGE
    THAT OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING IN SAUGUS, MASSACHUSETTS. THEY
    DETERMINED THAT A MICROBURST, OR STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, WAS THE CAUSE
    OF DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS, A FEW OF WHICH FELL ONTO HOMES.
    THE DAMAGE WAS NOT THE RESULT OF A TORNADO.

    THE ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED AFTER REVIEWING
    ADDITIONAL PHOTOS AND WE WILL MAKE THAT KNOWN AS SOON AS IT IS
    DETERMINED.

    THE SURVEY TEAM WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND
    SKYWARN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS FOR THEIR HELP.

    $$
    FIELD

  32. A caution for model watchers: The trough at the end of the period on today’s 18z GFS is probably overdone as a result of a tropical cyclone depicted in the western Atlantic that probably won’t actually be there.

  33. TK, thanks for everything you do for this blog! I appreciate all of the forecasts and information that you and others provide on this site.

    I hope you feel better soon and today is just a setback. You have had a rough time. I also am sorry for you losses. A lot to handle at once with the way you have been feeling.

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