2:03AM
DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
The official end of summer and beginning of fall occurs with the Autumnal Equinox tonight at 9:54PM Eastern Daylight Time…
The weather pattern we are in keeps things on the move and changes frequent but not drastic. As a cold front exits the region via the South Coast this morning, we’ll feel comfortable air flowing into the region today and continuing through Sunday, but with the front not that far away, there is going to be a fair amount of high cloudiness across the region at times during the course of the weekend. They won’t produce any rainfall, but they will prevent bright sunshine for the better part of both weekend days. A secondary cold front will move north to south across the region in the early hours of Monday, making it a bit chilly for a brief time, one day only, but the warmth and humidity will begin to make a comeback as a warm front approaches Tuesday, passes by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, and a cold front approaches later Wednesday. This will also result an a return to a wet weather threat during this time. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Highs 66-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-50 except 50-55 immediate shore and urban centers. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Highs 63-69. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Showers arriving. Lows from the lower to middle 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)
Unsettled weather is expected September into early September 28 before drier weather for the remainder of the period. Temperatures start out mild then cool down mid period followed by a quick warm-up as the calendar changes.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)
A little lower confidence on this period but looking for a couple fronts to come through early in the period with showery weather then a drying and cooling trend following this.
Thanks TK!
Am I first?
By a few hours.
Good morning and thank you. I guess I am a thirdly kind of guy.
Thanks TK !
Breezy NW wind up here in NH and it’s a cool breeze.
Thanks, TK. 50’s tonight? Time to break out the jackets.
It is time, yes.
For the benefit if anybody that may have forgotten to read the forecast above, there is only going to be limited sun today, and probably much of tomorrow too. The sunniest was probably the first 90 minutes today and will also be the final couple hours of Sunday’s daylight.
It appears that Monday will be the sunniest day of next week.
My money is on Monday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Matt, in response to this from last nighI:
“I cannot see the images. I see a place holder for them, but not the image.
Reply: Matt
Thanks JP. If others could tell me if they see the photos or not that would help me out.”
If it helps you out, the images on your site are still not visible.
Today is the first day of spring in the Southern Hemisphere.
TK – Will the Bermuda high remain the dominant pattern for October as well?
It’s not the dominant pattern anymore. That ended a couple weeks ago. But the tendency for upper level high pressure to be dominant in the Southeast will be there for a while.
It still spikes up the humidity around here just the same.
Only briefly but that’s pretty normal for late summer / early fall anyway. Like right now, it’s way down, as in dew points drop into the 40s for the next 2 1/2 days, then it spikes back toward 60 by late Tuesday, not hardly oppressive by any stretch. It will feel a bit muggy (without heat) midweek next week. The dog days are long gone.
And thankfully, they took their fleas with them.
HAHA!
I just wish we could have dewpoints in the 40s for the next 2 1/2 “weeks”. Oh well.
Well that’s a rarity around here unless it’s winter or spring.
A short but fun article about a common weather occurrence at the poles:
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/yw4pab/these-electric-blue-clouds-are-made-from-ice-crystals-and-meteor-debris
“NASA’s PMC Turbo mission captured new views of polar mesospheric clouds… As if it isn’t wild enough that these clouds are made of sparkling crystallized ice and alien rock debris, PMCs are also sculpted by a phenomenon called atmospheric gravity waves… formed when a fluid medium, like water or air masses, are disrupted from equilibrium by interaction with landscapes and other external forces.”
Thanks TK
https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/2018/09/22/map-difficulties/
I put a series of images in a blog post, if people are able to, can you let me know what images if any that you can see? Thank you for letting me know of the issue. I am learning this new setup for this blog after using the same thing for over 6 years.
Can see them all. Thanks
Oh by the way, the so called cooler weather for the start of October, looks to be more focused over the northern Plains/Western Great lakes with it occasionally making its way over here into the Northeast.
Yep. Refer to my comments on yesterday’s blog.
Rutgers University Climate Lab, current Northern Hemisphere snow cover.
pretty spotty in Siberia so far. Will monitor.
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=264&ui_set=0
This will be one of 3 big players this season (heading toward winter). The others are ENSO and MJO and a relationship between those 2.
It’s about how rapid the discover becomes in Siberia not solely on the anomalies
If I’m not mistaking
Thanks, TK.
Well tropical Storm, Kirk, is the only one with some possible sea legs out of the group.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
So I have acquired a copy of 4 different almanacs so I think we should have a little fun as we go through the autumn, winter, and maybe beyond, comparing their “forecasts” to each other than to the actual weather.
The 4 are…
*Harris Farmer’s Almanac (inspired by the original Harris in 1692 but NOT that old, probably the most recent, although they go out of their way not to say which year)
*Blum’s Farmer’s & Planter’s Almanac (started in 1828)
*The Old Farmer’s Almanac (the classic from NH since 1792)
*The Farmer’s Almanac (starting in 1818 from Maine).
The forecasts in the Harris version are pretty useless as they are so overly general you can’t really verify them day to day, only over the period of a month. The others have a little more specific day to day or groups of days forecast and it makes it a little easier to compare them against each other and the actual weather.
I get the old farmers almanac every year. I like it for the monthly pages, and all the data like length of day, sun declination, high tides, etc. I hardly read their forecasts.
Outside here in Gilmanton Iron Works, NH.
Concord, NH reporting 57F and calm. I’m guessing it’s even cooler here.
Thank goodness we have a roaring fire going !
SPC giving a 15% chance of severe weather on Wednesday. It is not often they highlight in a severe weather risk in the day 4 and beyond outlook
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
The SREF which ends at 2pm Wed is putting Berkshires VT and NH in the slight tornado risk. I always pay attention when this model highlights an area as it does in my mind a decent job in picking up on the possible rotating storms.
Should have said SPC does not usually highlight our region for severe weather in the day 4 and beyond outlook
New post!