Monday Forecast

37 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
Several changes will take place during the course of this week, which starts out rather chilly as high pressure to the north pushes a northeasterly air flow across the region today. As warm and humid air begins a push into the region from the southwest, it will lead to a rather wet day on Tuesday, pretty much a rainy day from mid morning on, and add in a chance of downpours and maybe even some thunder by evening as more unstable air arrives. Then we get into a warm sector between a warm front and cold front later Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday, with the level of warmth Wednesday determined by how much sun breaks out. One thing that is certain, fairly high humidity, and when the cold front from the west moves into this, it will trigger showers and thunderstorms, some of which could end up on the strong side. The timing of the front may be slow enough so that the threat for stronger storms is generally well west and northwest of Boston and whatever does develop would be in a weaker form once it reaches areas to the south and east – something to keep an eye on. Regardless, high pressure builds in Thursday, a less humid but still mild day. A wave of low pressure may bring a bit of wet weather for part of Friday before drier air returns again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with some low clouds off the ocean through midday, then any sunshine starting to fade behind increasing high cloudiness later in the day. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the morning and continuing through the afternoon. Increasingly humid. Highs 62-68 occurring late in the day. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely including a chance of thunderstorms early, then isolated showers overnight. Humid. Temperatures steady 62-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly west and north of Boston by late day. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms evening. Humid. Highs 74-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a period of rain possible, then partly cloudy. Lows from the middle to upper 50s. Highs from the middle to upper 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
High pressure is expected to bring generally fair weather during the September 29-30 weekend but a frontal boundary dropping down from the north between 2 centers of high pressure may bring some clouds and a shower risk sometime September 30 if enough moisture is available. Warm front expected to pass by October 1 with showers followed by a warm-up. Cold front is expected to bring a shower risk October 2, followed by a cool-down. A bubble of high pressure should bring fair weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)
Wet weather threat early in the period then mainly fair and cooler weather for the balance of the period as Canadian high pressure moves in.

37 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. I find it interesting that the cold fronts move through at a snail’s pace but warm fronts plow through like a freight train on steroids.

    1. Actually it’s usually the opposite. Warm fronts tend to slog, cold fronts tend to charge.

      Think about the processes. Warm air erodes cold air from above, slowly.

      Cold air is dense, and wedges under the warm air.

      1. I think I understand, but I have noticed that in many cases when a cold front passes the airmass seems to take forever to become firmly established while the warm frontal airmass slaps you in the face as soon as it passes.

  4. Thanks TK. 26F in Caribou this morning, a record daily low. Brrrrrr.

    No sustained fall chill in the forecast though. Seasons are changing, but very gradually this year.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Very chilly and rather brisk NE wind as I walk in from the parking lot.
    Feels nice though. I LIKE.

    We begin yet another week. Where does the time go?

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Chilly and raw out this morning. Definite feel of fall. Just need the colorful foliage to kick in to look like fall! 🙂

  7. Phillip, in response to your comment last night about Gronk, I bet, but I also feel like if that happened the patriots would be in a bigger mess than they are now. Brady would have quit, and Bill would have no team.

      2. Yeah, by the time it gets here it is after midnight and basically just a broken line of showers! That said, perhaps with some breaks of sun Wed PM, there could be some instability that sparks something ahead of the main line.

  11. If Gronk has accepted the trade, I bet that he would have had the best game of his career last night to date. No way the Pats defense would have stopped him.

  13. I believe the SPC will push the slight risk back toward far western parts of SNE tomorrow. Upstate NY looks to be the area with the biggest severe weather threat on Wed.

  15. Latest SREF shows slight tornado risk northwest CT and interior parts of MA for Wed. Bigger probabilities in Upstate NY.

  16. There were a couple tornado warnings last Fri in western parts of Upstate NY where the SREF was highlighting for possible tornadic development. None were reported but a lot of wind damage reports occurred in that area.

  17. Yeah, after observing this thing for a while, I think it’s time to cancel the “new GFS”. It’s just really bad. They keep trying, and failing, to replicate the ECMWF. Back to the drawing board.

  18. Quick commentary on the forecast. No big changes really, just noting that there could be some sneaky t-storms on the back side of the rain area Tuesday evening with the warm front passage. Watch for those. Not severe, just may be some downpours & lightning (probably not widespread but in isolated to scattered locations).

    I think it’s NY and possibly far northwestern and western New England that may see the strong storms late in the day Wednesday. As noted above and by some here in the comments, the timing is not great for eastern areas. Also, the calendar. It’s almost October. Yes we can and have gotten some big boomers in the autumn but our chances are diminishing rather rapidly, so climatology is not quite in favor of the biggies. This is not the same set-up as the Windsor Locks tornado (1979) that SAK referenced in his blog. Not that SAK was saying this set-up was similar, he was just noting that severe weather can occur now and we had to watch for some possible strong storms. Just don’t think it’s going to take place in the WHW forecast area.

    Thursday should turn out to be an absolutely splendid autumn day.

    I’m still trying to figure out if that sneaky wave comes up and makes part of Friday wet (probably early). Keep an eye on that. So far weekend looks decent but we may not escape it completely clean. Boundary in the area Sunday can at least bring cloudiness and possibly some showers. Not looking for a yucky day though, just may be that Saturday’s the pick for fair weather if you really want to do something outside with no concerns and maximum sunshine chances.

  19. Thanks TK. I agree with just about all your thoughts above. Some of the rainfall amounts in the next couple days could be pretty decent (locally 2″+) but probably not enough for any more than nuisance flood issues. Not thinking SNE sees any severe weather Wednesday evening-night. Timing of day combined with time of year will prevent it.

  20. TK mentioned one issue relating to this the other day, but it goes beyond that: the NHC has been very hard to follow lately in terms of when they are deciding to initiate and terminate advisories on a tropical cyclone. A lot of these storms have been swept under the rug because of Florence, but the path we’ve taken to get all the way to the “L” storm has been an interesting one to say the least. I definitely have some questions about some of the decision making. It’s not an impacts issue, but just bookkeeping stuff. I can understand them being tired after Florence but some of the work lately looks borderline careless. Hopefully there will be some adjustments made in postseason reanalysis, which there often are.

    1. I agree completely. I have been following NHC for decades now, and the current incarnation if a far cry from what was once there.

  21. The national hurricane center predicted Florence extremely accurately, not sure what people want from them, their forecasts have been getting better every year. Look at how close they were 5 to 7 days from Florence making land fall just saying. They have flaws sure, but they are so much better than they were.

    1. which by the way the Carolina’s are still feeling the aftermath of that storm with flooding, contaminated water, with many still without power, this is not getting enough coverage. Its not hype when its actually a big deal. These storms are getting slower, and loaded with more rain. Might not be stronger but they sure are more destructive, watch next year have another storm that just sits and spins with record rainfall.

    2. What WxW and I were referring to was not their predicting skills. They are excellent at that. It had to do with the naming of non tropical lows.

      Let’s also be fair and qualify the statement that they are better now than before at forecasting. When is “before”? Probably before all the tools they have now were available. Those guys also did an excellent job with what they had available to them.

  22. NWS mentioning a PRE

    One wildcard here Wed night is that NAM suggest moisture from
    tropical depression (currently 300 miles south of Cape Hatteras)
    advects northward into southern New England and interacts with
    baroclinic frontal boundary/trough moving across our area to yield a
    Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE), with intense rainfall rates. Still
    48+ hrs out in time and NAM model only guidance source suggesting a
    PRE. Nonetheless it`s something we`ll have to watch.

      1. Love how a lot of media sources for drama refer to that as the remains of Florence, when it isn’t. 🙂

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