Tuesday Forecast

37 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)
Warm front approaches today sending a batch of rain into the region, which may end as showers and thunderstorms as the warm air arrives. Low pressure to the south will send a finger of tropical moisture northward and may result in a batch of showers/storms Wednesday morning favoring southeastern areas before we break out some in the warm sector ahead of a cold front, which arrives too late here to bring really strong storms to the region but will nevertheless produce showers and a few possible thunderstorms west to east Wednesday evening. High pressure brings drier and slightly cooler air by Thursday. A wave of low pressure passing southeast of the region Friday will probably toss some cloudiness into the region for a time but at this point I am going to back off on the rain forecast and keep it rain free, with the expectation that the main area of moisture will remain offshore. High pressure regains complete control for a spectacular Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the morning and continuing through the afternoon. Increasingly humid. Highs 62-68 occurring late in the day. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely including a chance of thunderstorms early, then isolated showers overnight. Humid. Temperatures steady 62-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring southeastern MA and RI early to mid morning, otherwise only isolated showers. Humid. Highs 74-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy through evening with a broken to scattered line of showers and possible thunderstorms from west to east. Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid evening, less humid overnight. Lows 58-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Less humid. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows from the middle to upper 50s. Highs from the middle to upper 60s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)
An weakening frontal boundary may bring clouds and perhaps a few showers September 30 but overall still looks like a mainly dry day. A
warm front expected to pass by October 1 with showers followed by a warm-up. Cold front is expected to bring a shower risk October 2, followed by a cool-down. High pressure moves in with fair and cool weather October 3 then moves offshore with a warm-up October 4.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)
Front moves through early period with wet weather followed by drier and cooler weather mid period then a late period warm-up.

37 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK
    I would not be surprised to see a tornado warning tomorrow in Upstate NY or northern New England. Usually when the SREF highlights an area there is either a tornado warning somewhere in the area or a tornado. Slight risk but non zero risk interior parts of CT and MA tomorrow.

  4. The SPC will update this around 1:30pm today. Slight risk in my opinion needs to be pushed back west and should include Upstate NY northwest CT Berkshires VT and NH.

    1. The regular op GFS is ok most of the time. It’s not great on the large scale pattern beyond several days but it is far outperforming the “new & not improved”. But to be fair, the ECMWF has made some major flip flops the last few days as well.

    1. Could this be reflective of a few early morning thunderstorms tomorrow morning, not associated with the cold front, that I have been seeing on some radar simulations and reading about?

  9. Love how the GFS handles the eastern Pacific tropical system.

    While it wouldn’t surprise me to see moisture affect the SW US, the GFS brings what looks like a tropical storm into central Arizona.

  10. Latest HRRR really bullish on additional rainfall totals in western parts of CT.
    Red Sox game postponed tonight
    Tweet from Eric Fisher tomorrow.
    Pretty nasty looking line of storms along the cold front tomorrow in NYS and western New England. Supportive of damaging winds and even an isolated tornado.

  11. Latest SREF run continues to be bullish Upstate NY Northern New England for tornadic potential tomorrow. Low but non zero western CT and interior parts of MA.

  15. Tk what are your thoughts on the EPS weeklies, I think its a little to strong with the chill but the GFS weeklies are to warm but thats just me thoughts?

    1. Actually favor the CFS weeklies as of the 12z data today. I’m having a hard time thinking October ends up normal or cooler than… But I think we’re just about done with the anomalous warmth save for a few days here and there.

      I also am starting to think ENSO’s flip to El Nino may be delayed by 1 to 2 months.

    2. Not sure if you looked at CFS’s precip forecast at all. The recent runs have been trending the winter (and beyond through spring) drier and drier. It develops what looks like some of the patterns we had in the end of 1970s and early 1980s (particularly 1979-1981), where those winters were rather dry and storms went south of New England, but we were missing Lakes Cutters that brought higher precip to the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast.

      1. I been watching, but I am not sure about it, especially with the way I think some of the telloconnections may go but will have to wait for that, I do believe we will have a more normal and leaning cooler November/December, then again that might just be hoping as I got new skis and I want to get on them 😛

        2. That remains to be seen. Under the scenario painted by the model referenced above we’d have very little anything. But that doesn’t take into account one very important unknown among several other fairly important ones still TBD.

  18. Big time flooding in parts of CT today.
    Couple tweets from Eric Fisher
    Emergency Management in Easton, CT reports 50 water rescues during flooding this eve. 15 water rescues in Bridgeport.

    Lebanon, CT up to 6.41″ of rain today. Lots of flooded basements and impassable roads in New London County

  19. 1978-79 = 27.5”
    1979-80 = 12.7”
    1980-81 = 22.3”

    Is that what you’re leaning towards this upcoming winter, TK?

    1. Didn’t say that was my leaning. It was just an example of the type of winter that the CFS model was hinting at (colder, drier).

    1. That band was pretty intense. Most of that passed south of where I am. Just got into the northern tip of it.

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