Wednesday Forecast

55 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)
This area will be in a wedge of tropical air today behind the warm front that brought yesterday’s rain and ahead of a cold front that will bring a shower or thunderstorm to some areas tonight. During the day today a few downpours are possible, but favoring the morning hours and areas from RI through eastern MA. Not everybody sees one but if you do, the rain could be torrential for a short time. All of this gets pushed out of here by that cold front, setting up a nicer Thursday, though not 100% sunny. And those clouds increase again Thursday night into Friday as a disturbance slides up along the front just offshore. Still thinking the rain doesn’t quite materialize with this but I’m not 100% confident of that at this point. The front I spoke of on yesterday’s forecast timed for next Sunday actually looks faster and weaker to me and should come through as a virtually unnoticed entity Saturday night, so the weekend at this point looks quite nice. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms favoring southeastern MA and RI this morning, otherwise only isolated showers. Humid. Highs 74-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through evening with a broken to scattered line of showers and possible thunderstorms from west to east. Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid evening, less humid overnight. Lows 58-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming NE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 52-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 62-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH becoming N.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)
Current thoughts are similar to yesterday’s with a warm-up October 1, cold front with shower threat and brief cool down October 2 into October 3 then another warm-up following that, probably with more unsettled weather at the end of the period as another cold front approaches. Timing on all this is low confidence. Fine tuning ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)
This period is likely to feature mainly dry but cooler weather before it turns unsettled at the end.

55 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you.
    1.94 inches yesterday and last night.
    We shall see what comes today and overnight.

  7. The bar on the bar graph with hrs of dewpoints > 70F continues to get taller.

    Looking at the EURO long range, I wouldn’t say with any confidence that 70F dewpoints are finished in southern New England after today.

    A few systems going to the west of New England in the long range combined with the SE ridge, offering more surges of southwest flow at the surface and aloft in New England.

  8. The Earth’s atmosphere must be named Khan, because it just can’t do away with Kirk !

    KHANNNNNNNNNNNNNNN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. It was almost totally sunny for a bit, not partly to mostly cloudy but still with
    some sunshine.

    Wondering if there might not be a better chance for some convection now?

  12. We certainly won’t have any drought conditions this fall. The trees will have no excuse not to be beautiful once they turn color.

  13. Judah:

    Highly anomalous Beaufort Sea block will mean winter is off to the races in Canada with early season #cold and #snow. Is this foreshadowing or a head fake from Mother Nature about this upcoming #winter across North America?

  14. I was very impressed with the intensity of the rain here in CT yesterday. Ended up with 3.7″ in Coventry. We are now up to an incredible 11″+ of rain on the month of September. And all this following 3 straight months of 5 to 7″ rainfall totals in June, July, and August. I cant remember a wetter summer.

    Here were the rain totals yesterday from the NWS:
    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    Lots of flooding reports as well as JJ mentioned. This was I-95 in Norwalk yesterday underwater!
    https://twitter.com/NBCConnecticut/status/1044685386944073728

    2. This would be that warm-up I referenced for Oct 4 (thereabouts) when the FV3-GFS had New England cold with rain/snow showers. 🙂

  16. I’m down here in Sarasota with the SE ridge 89°77° DP. Very impressive seabreeze thunder storms very frequent cloud to ground lightning strike all around huge loud crashes that shook the house. Looks like the ridge in some form will follow me back to RI.next week.

  17. Hopefully no severe weather up there later today ingredients in the atmosphere look quite impressive for this time of year.

  21. I am thinking there will be at least one or two tornado warnings somewhere in Upstate NY VT NH. The SREF does good job sniffing out areas of possible tornadic storms.

    1. It’s nearly 4PM and NO WATCH as of yet. I am beginning to think
      that there won’t be much of any action at all. In other words, routine garden
      variety.

  22. Thank you, TK.

    Hopefully today is summer’s parting shot. I’m really looking forward to some consistent autumnal weather.

  23. The SPC has allowed the mesoscale discussion for NNE to expire WITHOUT
    issuing a watch, which was exactly what it was looking like based on radar returns.

      1. Thank you sir. To be honest, I was wondering all along if
        the SPC was a bit too aggressive with their risk assessment???
        Perhaps it was warranted, but things just didn’t come together
        enough for a watch. Such is life in that business.

  24. TK, is the warm spell next week associated with humidity, or is it more like typical autumnal warmth, like we got last October? There is a difference, as you know. I’m okay with the latter (last October, for example), but not the former (today). It’s the former that’s been a near constant for several months.

  25. If that western Colorado low track continues to be the dominant storm track, We will continue to see the pattern of occasional warmth and humid followed by a cold front. I do not see this changing anytime soon. Parts of the Northern Rockies/Plains and western Great lakes look to continue their very wet pattern. Parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains could have snow at different times next week, of course this is not rare it happens all the time, but just shows you that trough is being over powered by the SE ridge and the trough is more angled from Plains to the west. Next week we could see some more 80s.

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