Hello September!

41 Comments

3:43AM

High pressure north of New England will provide fair weather with coolest air at the coast the next 2 days, before all areas warm back up Saturday. A frontal system moving very slowly into the region Sunday-Monday will provide focus for higher humidity and some shower activity. With luck, most of the shower activity will hold off until Monday.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny this morning. Mostly sunny this afternoon. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 70-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 70.

41 thoughts on “Hello September!”

  1. TK, thank you. Based on your update, I plan to make an important meteorological decision today — the BBQ day — which looks more like Sunday. BZ gave Sunday a chance of showers though. They seemed to have the front moving faster.

    2. Refresh my memory, so I don’t have to go looking. Your choices were Sat/Sun OR Sun/Mon? I can’t remember. Too many days going around my head. 🙂

  3. Thanks for the update TK ! Wow, meteorological fall……Destructive tornadoes, a 103F day and flooding and lasting power outages from a tropical system, what a summer it was. Have a good day all.

  4. Thanks for the update TK!! I am going with Sunday as well. My parents, brother and sister are all in town so hoping for a decent day!!

  6. Heading to NH for a late-season beach day at Hampton. It’ll be a bit cool there with onshore wind, but spending part of the day inside and the “warmest” hours outside. Checking in via mobile off and on. Have a great day everyone!

    (Don’t forget to vote for the blog on WBZ!) 🙂

  7. Happy Meteorological Fall!!! I hope there will be a great display of fall colors this year.
    Katia still with winds of 75 mph. Hopefully it takes that turn northward before getting close to the U.S. but until it does that I am keeping an eye on it.

  8. 06Z GFS has KATIA BIG MISS!!! YEAH A bigger miss than yesterday.
    A very nice trend indeed. Hopefully, it is out of out life!!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F01%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=192&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  11. JJ,

    Thanks. I am still worried. I want to be able to say that KATIA is no longer a threat.
    Can’t be done just yet.

    Last night, I watched Brain Norcross (Sp?) of TWC. He could not write it off and indicated that there WAS a scenario that “could” capture this things and bring it into
    New England. Equally likely was that it would be pushed OTS. We just won’t know
    which for awhile yet.

    Btw, there are some or at least one model that brings it EVEN farther West and South
    than the GFDL.

    I hate this not knowing.

    What I am fearful of is a hit with a CAT 2 or higher storm up here. I can’t even imagine the damage that would cause after witnessing what a Strong tropical storm caused.

  12. The models are in disagreement for Monday. TK or others what are your thoughts on the rain for Monday? I have tickets to the final round (Monday) of the golf tournament in Norton. Is it going to be a wash out or are they going to get that final round in?

  13. 11AM KATIA info is in.

    Of note, supporting posts above:

    THE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT IN
    4 TO 5 DAYS WITH THE UKMET…NOGAPS…AND GFDL MODELS ON THE SOUTH
    SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS…ECMWF…AND HWRF MODELS ON THE
    NORTH SIDE. THIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTH
    OF A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
    POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

    So, as per usual, we just don’t know yet.

  14. No change with wind speed with Katia still a weak cateogory 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph. No track is set in stone. What I don’t see in the cone of uncertainty is that straight northward turn.

  17. JJ,

    I certainly agree. One thing, that was last night’s run. We’ll see what this morning’s run shows.

    Plus, all of the others will be in soon enough.

    Until I get a consensus that is WILL go out, I will be worried.

    I don’t want to lose my house. I was out yesterday, and in my neighborhood there was a tree down blocking a road, and a few miles away, a house took a direct hit from
    a monster tree and lost 1/2 of the roof. AND that was with a tropical storm.

    YIKES

  18. I saw a question about the Labor Day weekend. To me Saturday is the pick of the three day holiday weekend. The other two days there is a chance of showers and possibly some thunder as well but they don’t look to be all day washouts. Models just like with Katia not in agreement about this.
    Thunderstorm Index just at 1 since if there is thunder it would be garden variety. The bigger threat for severe weather is to the west and southwest of New England for Sunday as highlighted by the storm prediction center.

  21. I think Katia stays off the east coast but not as much as models depict, right now alot r showing a pass to the east by 400-450 miles, I think it passes more like 175-250 miles east. I think Sun and Mon r off an on showers w embedded downpours, no severe weather around here. My favorite time of year is from now till NEw years, hope all is well.

  22. Charlie I would agree with you right now but with these tropical systems they have minds of their own so will see what happens. I think the waves will kick up.
    To me fall is right around the corner. College Football kicks off tonight, the NFL starts next Thursday, and the daylight hours are getting shorter.

  25. HI ALL!
    Couple quick points.
    1) Blog update early this evening (probably do it during the Pats game) covering detailed forecast for Labor Day Weekend.
    2) Way too early to really get too worried about Katia. I think the cluster track on the spaghetti plots has a fine idea of where she will go during the next 5 days per a fairly predictable upper pattern. Slight weakening trend should be coming to an end and she should re-organize along this path, reaching Category 3 by Monday.
    3) I think NWS’s forecast of showers as early as Saturday night, Sunday, and even Sunday night for the Boston area is out to lunch, and I will hold onto the idea of some increase in clouds by Sunday but no shower activity reaching Boston until Labor Day itself.

    Look for the update in a while!

    Great day at Hampton today. Slightly cool with the seabreeze, but the water temp came up in response to the onshore wind, and the place was practically deserted since most kids are already back in school.

  26. Happy Meteorological Fall everyone! 🙂

    Keeping my fingers crossed I can have my BBQ Sunday or Monday…prefer Monday, but I may have to settle for two out of three (Memorial Day, July 4th). We will see what the stupid front does. Why do cold fronts always stall at the worst time? 🙁

    As for Katia, we need a few more days to know for sure…hopefully after the weekend.

    1. If too much of “Lee’s” moisture gets drawn north, more flooding is very likely, especially in VT…YIKES!

      Texas could really use that moisture…and then some.

  29. I think that cold front coming through Labor Day weekend could be the thing to keep Katia away from the east coast.

  31. New tropical depression has formed and forecasted to become a tropical storm. Heavy rain looks to be the big threat. If it gets a name it would be called Lee.

  32. That state so badly needs rain and the current forecast track misses Texas. Right now I would say if this becomes Lee its going to be remembered for its heavy flooding rains.

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