Friday Forecast

41 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
This would have been that snowstorm with short notice in the winter. A few days ago I worried about a wave of low pressure bringing wet weather for part of Friday, then backed off on the rain risk and held on to the clouds, only to realize the low pressure wave was going to produce at least some rain, prompting me to re-introduce it to the forecast, and now today, if only briefly, some areas will see heavy rain as this wave passes by, but it’s gone tonight, and we have a spectacular weekend ahead, mildest day Saturday and a little cooler Sunday, as a weak boundary will have passed by virtually unnoticed Saturday night. When we get to the start of next week, and the start of a new month, high pressure will settled to the south, a warm front passes Monday with no more than some cloudiness, and a mild push of air will be with us into much of Tuesday before a cold front brings a shower risk by the end of the day. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain likely this morning, heaviest southeastern MA and RI. Rain tapering off southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Highs 54-60 Boston-Providence northwestward, 61-68 to the southeast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH Boston-Providence areas northwestward, SE-S 5-15 MPH in areas to the southeast.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog evening. Gradual clearing but still patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind light N to NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-52, mildest immediate coast and urban areas Wind light W shifting to N.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Late-day and nighttime showers possible. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)
Fair, slightly cooler October 3. Fair, warm October 4 but nighttime showers. Fair and a cooling trend October 5-7.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)
Fair weather starts the period, then unsettled weather followed by a warm-up as weather systems continue to progress.

41 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Its noticeable to look at the medium and long range and see that some early season cold is going to be pushed down into Canada and the north Atlantic, because a heat wave (relatively speaking), will be occurring in a majority of the Arctic.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    0.27 inch here so far and frankly, I think we are just about done here. We shall see.

    1. Most action confined to SE sections. Light rain N&W before ending.
      Hey, didn’t I see that somewhere above? 😀

  4. Thanks TK. And you’re right, a couple months from now today’s forecast would’ve been a nightmare.

    Looks like today will be the end of this wet pattern though, a good thing because our rainfall surplus is becoming rather significant. It’s a good thing there’s no tropical systems or other big rain producers on the way, because I’d say we’re probably just one big rain event away from some serious flooding issues. The rivers are way up compared to normal. Now it looks like the first half of October is going to be brought to us by a familiar friend, the Southeast Ridge. That should mean temperatures averaging above normal (though with some daily variations) and rainfall dropping back below normal for at least the next couple weeks. I think we have several additional 80+ degree days to come.

    One thing’s for sure, as the Southeast Ridge sets up: this is hardly an El Nino pattern. Not making the winter forecast any easier.

      1. middle of the month 😉 Also the humidity won’t be that bad with the warm ups, it won’t have enough time to build. We will also be on the northern edge.
        I also think it comes back for a short time in November.

        1. From my perspective, ANY humidity is bad. At least any cool spells will truly be “cool” and take the edge off the warm airmass as it arrives, if that makes any sense.

  5. If this was winter this “snowstorm” would have been a miss to begin with. 😉

    Having said that, the heaviest rain is just missing Boston with SE getting the brunt.

    2. If this was a winter snowstorm it would not have been a miss. Doesn’t work that way. The thought that more snow misses and less rain misses is a total misconception. Winter snow makes up only a small percentage of the precipitation events. There is about an equal number, percentage-wise, of hits and misses of both types.

  6. Saturday / Saturday has been changed to Saturday / Sunday.

    I was rushing through that this morning…

    1. Actually the way it was before you fixed it is a great way to nail every forecast ha.

      I remember one snow storm last year that was hard to call and one TV met had 4-10″+ on their map. I know the “+” at the end drove him to same conclusion…like you can always say you were right.

      1. I’m not a fan of the + all the time, but I do often mention “locally heavier” to cover snow bands. When it comes down to it I think snowfall forecasts are scrutinized too much down to the nearest inch. Forecasting to the nearest 1 inch is like forecasting rainfall to the nearest 0.10 or even 0.05. I think a lot of people forget that.

        1. I remember a Met from years ago who would
          simply say Snow tomorrow, several inches likely.
          I forget who it was. Norm MacDonald? Bob Copeland?
          Someone back in that era.

          Channel 4 once had this guy doing the weather who
          may actually have been a chemist. I want to say
          last name Boyer? But my memory is foggy. That guy
          was something. One time he said clouding over
          tonight, blizzard tomorrow. No snow totals. Just matter of factly stating that there would be a blizzard. (byw, it Did NOT happen!) 😀 😀 😀

          1. I wonder if it was Bill Hovey. His style was kind of like mine turned out, though on-air he was a little bland. 😉 Still a great guy and excellent forecaster.

            I honestly think society, thanks to media, is obsessed with exact #’s. Yes they are important for record keeping, but when it comes down to it, there is not a grand difference between 11 and 12 inches of snow. You wouldn’t know that listening to media. 😉

            1. Perhaps. I certainly remember him.
              Seemed like a very nice person. I actually didn’t mind his on air presentation and style. I can’t say for sure if it was he or not.

              There are 2 local on air mets for whom I cannot stand their presentation. I won’t name names, but I bet some here might know who I mean. For most local Mets, their presentations are fine (not talking about content and accuracy), but these 2 stand out to me.

              Sorry did I go off track?

              1. You’re allowed to have your opinion. 🙂 I have my on-airs that I’m not a big fan of, for various reasons. It’s like music, or a movie, or a TV show… we all have preferences, likes, dislikes.

    1. I’m not a fan of those phrases for snowfall maps in general, especially “severe”. What amount of snow has to fall for it to be “severe”? That’s not even defined anywhere, at least light/moderate/heavy have rough “definitions” or “understandings”.

      To me that’s like labeling a thunderstorm severe because it has frequent lightning. Maybe that could be considered but it’s not part of the definition.

      Weather doesn’t fit so neatly into these frames we build for it. 😉

      1. I hear you, but even the light. moderate and heavy are open
        to interpretation.

        Some might consider moderate as 3 or 4 inches, while I wouldn’t
        say moderate until 6 inches was reached. Taking into account
        water content, I “might” go moderate with 4 or 5 inches of
        Cement, but for powder it better be at least 6 inches or it
        is a light event in my book.

        To me Heavy starts at a foot, although I would give consideration to lesser amounts if it is the heavy wet stuff. Then 8 or 9 inches may very well constitute heavy.

        In short, impossible to please us all. Isn’t going to happen.

        I’m just killing time till I can get out of here.

        1. You’re absolutely right. When I was a kid I made up a scale: Micro was trace-1, minor was 1-3, moderate was 3-6, major was 6-12, mega was over 12. But I guess as a kid snowfalls seemed bigger. 😉

      2. This is what I though for the different categories and its something I use. I also use to use to when I was younger
        revenge clobbering brother’s snow level 1,2,3 or fluff. you can guess what the different levels mean in terms of how wet the snow was 😛
        level 1 minor 0-1
        level 2 light 1-4
        level 3 moderate 4-10
        level 4 heavy 10-20
        level 5 severe 20+

  9. Did anyone notice that the 12Z GFS has a couple of Trpical Pacific systems
    barrel into Arizona as big rain makers. Oct. 2 and again on Oct 9-10. Interesting.
    It certainly has happened in the past, but not sure I have seen it twice in such a short
    period.

    The 2nd of the 2 is stronger and it shows the system crossing into Arizona from
    Mexico as a 975mb low. Pretty impressive to me.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018092812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_43.png

        1. For Oct 2, freezing level forecast to be around 3600 m
          or “about” 11,800 feet. Will be interesting to monitor.

  11. Understanding that, in autumn, what’s happening at 850 mb compared to the surface can be extremely different, the EURO has been trending towards some periods of summer-like weather for Columbus Day weekend. There is a back door cool front in there for perhaps average temps, possibly sandwiched by some double digit above average days.

    1. Be very careful of model analysis. I’ll be getting more into this soon, but ALL medium range models, including ECMWF, are likely to have some hard difficulties in the next several days, and there is a very valid reason which I will be talking about.

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