Monday Forecast

65 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)
October is here, and after a great weather weekend to end September we have changeable weather in store for the next several days, including some wet weather but also a couple of very nice days as well. A back-door cold front drops down from the northeast today then sits across far southern New England nearly stationary by tonight through Tuesday, with episodes of wet weather from this afternoon through Tuesday. I originally thought this front may push back to the north getting the region fully into the warm sector, but this won’t be the case as high pressure in eastern Canada is a little too strong to allow it. But high pressure will be also what causes all this to move out of here for a nice day Wednesday, then moves offshore resulting in a warm-up for Thursday before a cold front brings in slightly cooler but fair weather for the end of the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partial sun far eastern and southern areas early otherwise cloudy. Showers likely by mid afternoon on. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northern MA, 65-72 southern MA through RI and eastern CT. Wind light variable becoming NE up to 10 MPH from northeast to southwest, but may never shift to NE in far southern areas.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Occasional showers. Lows 52-57. Wind light NE except variable far southern areas.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Periods of rain, especially in the afternoon. Highs 58-65 except 65-72 far southern areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH except variable far southern areas.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers at night. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)
Looks like high pressure will be dominant surface and aloft with dry weather from the October 6-7 weekend with a warm-up, and continuing with above normal temperatures into the early part of next week before unsettled weather arrives by later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)
A more changeable period of weather is expected as a flatter flow brings a series of low pressure waves across the region west to east. But high pressure will still be off the Atlantic Coast and the tropics may be active again so that may be another thing to keep an eye on toward the end of the period.

65 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yes, tis October already. Seriously, I just don’t know where the time goes.
    Incredible!!

    The water temperature at Boston Buoy on this first day of October stands at
    64 F. I just don’t know what average is, but my gut says that 64 is some 4-8 degrees
    above average. I believe average is somewhere around 56-60 or thereabout.

    Does anyone know for sure???

    1. I can remember when 64 was the maximum water temp for an entire summer. I believe it was as high as 74F back in August so at least it did cool down considerably. This global warming is definitely for real.

      1. Actually, I think the high was 76 one day due to bright sunshine
        and Easterly wind. But even so, it was warmer than average this year for certain!

        I’m just wondering how much it can cool for the Winter
        season??? The way it’s going right now, it will be 50 Degrees or higher come the beginning of December. I do remember for that
        October Snow of 2011, the Boston Buoy temp was 52 (I think) and what was that 10/30 or so? It is NOT going to drop 12 degrees in 30 days. (I don’t think so, anyway) We shall see.

        My gauge on this is the year we had a 6 inch snowfall on thanksgiving (mid 80s?) when the buoy temp was already 46.

        So, I want to see the buoy temp sub 50 by the end of November, if not sooner. Will we see it this year? I don’t know. I am guessing not.

        I, for one, will certainly be monitoring that.

          1. I don’t believe so as the vehicle I removed snow from on this Thanksgiving was not the vehicle I had in 1990.

              1. I’m trying to recall as something about another Thanksgiving day snowstorm is floating around in my memory.

    1. Yayyy! You’re back!!! Sorry if I’m late to the welcome back party – So good to see you Vicki – you were missed!

      1. You are very kind. I add nothing but fluff to the blog but I have friends here that I have no other way to keep in touch with and you all mean a lot to me.

        1. Not to mention that even when I dont post it remains the only place I go for weather and explanation.

    1. Viewing data at this site, here is something interesting.

      on Oct 30, 2011 (year of big Oct snow storm), Water temp was
      54 Degrees. Same year Oct 1 water temp was: 62.78 Degrees and today
      it is 64 degrees.

      For comparison, on Oct 1, 1984 water temp at Boston Buoy was 56.5 degrees.

      Also, the year of our big snows, Winter 2014-2015, water temp on Oct 1
      was 57 Degrees, a full 7 degrees lower than today.

      The site has ALL of the daily-hourly Sea Surface temps for every day
      from 1/1/1984 through 12/31/2006.

      IF I have the time, I am going to download every year and create a
      spreadsheet and create some graphs of water temps, say for a reasonable
      time of day like 2 or 3PM. Want to use the same time for each day.
      I could computer average temp for each day along with the standard deviation.
      (measure of variability. ie average could be 60 for a day, but depending on year could vary from 55 to 65 etc.)

      I hope I am not blowing smoke and actually do this. I always wanted that data and I finally looked and found it.

      For those interested the data can be found at the following url:

      https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=44013

      for sea surface temps look at:

      Historical data (data descriptions)
      Standard meteorological data: 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

      https://imgur.com/a/kRTq3aO

  9. I don’t recall a summer max of 64 at all. The anomalous warmth was AMO / circulation related. The southern waters were cooler than average, hence a lower occurrence of tropical development during the Cape Verde season overall outside of an active 10 day stretch of development.

    1. I do remember a really cool Summer where Boston buoy was 54 degrees
      on July 4th, but I do not recall how high the recovery temp was. (late 60s I believe. It was the Summer the Thomas Crown Affair was filmed in the Boston area)

    2. I was referring to back in the day, before global warming. 1970s and back.

      I used to listen to NOAA wx radio and the water temps to my knowledge never got above mid-60s max during summers.

      1. Routinely upper 60s. I think the average high for Boston Buoy
        is something like 68, which would necessarily mean some
        years higher and some lower (how much would depend on the standard deviation) which very well could be consistent with your mid 60s.

      2. There were very few that cool in mid summer and it was more related to the ocean circulation than anything else.

  10. It will be interesting as to what date the first frost occurs within this state. I believe a few locations in NNE had theirs last month.

    Also it will be interesting as to how far north one has to travel on Columbus Day weekend to view good color. I can remember not all that long ago, a mere 20 miles or so would suffice on that traditional weekend. This year I bet a good 50+ miles.

    Global Warming…YUCK!!!

    1. You can’t attribute the current pattern to GW only. There are other factors at work too.

    1. You mean as in 15-20 C????

      If sun and wind is right, looking at 80s perhaps pushing 90 if conditions
      are just right.

      We shall see.

        1. I understand. Just saying IF those 850 temps were correct and the wind and sun set up perfectly. What you are
          really saying is that those 850MB temps will NOT happen.
          😀 😀
          I have personally witnessed at least one 90 degree day
          in October.

          1. We could absolutely get that hot. I am just of the opinion, meteorologically speaking, that the model forecasts are overdone on that again. We’ve seen it happening all season and I haven’t see any reason to bite on this one either.

              1. I think the surface will be dictating this pattern much moreso than the upper levels. If it was spring, you’d be hating the post cold-front days. 😉

  12. NOTE: When looking at the medium range, a couple things to remember.

    1) As previously mentioned, these pieces of guidance will struggle due to tropical activity.
    2) Pay attention to the surface forecast, not just the upper levels. Much of the time that we’re under the highest heights, we have northeast or east wind at the surface. That’s not a very anomalously warm pattern actually.

    1. Nice find…

      This sticks out to me.

      Comparison of monthly mean near surface water
      temperatures at Woods Hole, Massachusetts, for 1890–1899 and
      1990–1999. The mean water temperature of all of the months
      of the 1990–1999 decade were significantly higher at the 99%
      confidence level, except August and November, which were significantly
      higher at the 95% confidence level, and January and
      September, which were significantly higher at the 90% level.
      Smooth curves through the monthly means were fit with a cubic
      spline.

  14. Paste drizzle. I love how that feels out there. 🙂

    When I think about my original forecast for tomorrow, it’s rather amusing how wrong it will end up having been. 😉

  15. TK, above you responded with
    I think the surface will be dictating this pattern much moreso than the upper levels. If it was spring, you’d be hating the post cold-front days.

    I am wondering if this persists, would not that allow New England to continually
    tap into colder Eastern Canada air, eventually leading to some decent cold here?
    Perhaps offsetting any El Nino (any form) effects? Just wondering if this
    complicates the Winter forecast even more? OR IF this is exactly what you meant
    by us not being too far away from cold air???

    Many thanks

    1. It’s what I mean, and I think it’s going to have an impact on the pattern later in October, part of November, and especially December, especially if/when El Nino gets cranking. There will be a lot of folks hearing El Nino and thinking “warm”, but I caution that should not be so automatic this time. I say that with the caveat that there remain many puzzle pieces not yet in place, and that it will take about 6 or 7 weeks to satisfactorily fit them all together. But what I am getting at above is that El Nino, instead of helping it be milder, may actually help it be colder, for winter 2018-2019.

        1. Based on past instances of M.E., not necessarily. A lot of them were dry with low snowfall.

    1. Climate change, regardless of cause, would influence them some, but not necessarily be the cause, so you are mostly correct. The degree of contribution in many cases is not yet known. This is what I mean by not just attributing something strictly to climate change. There are too many other things in addition to that to consider.

      In a way it’s an analogy to me trying to make a winter forecast now based on the fact I think we have Modoki El Nino upcoming this winter. I didn’t consider MJO, PDO, QBO, etc etc.

  17. With this rather brisk NE wind all day, the Boston Buoy water temperature has come down a whopping 0.1 degree:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 63.9 °F

    1. There is usually very little impact from wind over a day. In fact, a NE or E wind tends to hold warmer water in for that area.

  18. Vicki –

    I’ve been offline all day but in response to your earlier comment I would disagree – I think you are a great liaison between those here with incredible technical knowledge and those of us – like me – with no real knowledge but interest mixed with confusion. Your clear comments and direct questions and their responses often help me to better understand new concepts or foreign terminology or better follow the thoughts of the weather geniuses here. I think you often are our interpreter. I will also add that over and above all of that you add one other priceless thing in every one of your posts – kindness.

    Glad you’re back!

    1. Mama….not sure how to say thank you. I am sincerely touched. I’ve always felt some sort of a connection to you. I am at the point in my life where I do not question but just trust.

      I am blessed to have the WHW family. You all lift me more than I suspect any know!

  20. This morning was fun ….. we had a transformer explode and our neighborhood was without power from about 5:45 to 6:30 am.

    With the now 6:40 ish sunrise and cloudy conditions, it was fairly dark getting ready, save for some light from our cell phones.

      1. It really is, isn’t it 😉

        Sorry, Tom. I know it wasn’t fun for you. 🙁 I have come to the conclusion that I may be in the minority when I find stuff like that fun.

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