Wednesday Forecast

70 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)
I was too optimistic with my “partly sunny” for today on yesterday’s forecast. Low level moisture hangs tough and with no strong push of dry air to scour it out we’ll take most of the day to dry the air out even to go from overcast and damp with areas of fog to just mostly cloudy. But at least the heavy rain is gone. So there’s a plus. We do get a very weak high pressure area to move offshore by tomorrow with a warm-up which is still expected, then a cold front to come through with no more than a few showers during the late day and evening hours. A cooler high pressure area will build across eastern Canada and northern New England Friday and Saturday with cooler air here, especially Friday, but as the high sinks to the southeast during the course of the weekend, a warm-up arrives, especially by Sunday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy and damp with areas of fog morning. Mostly cloudy and drying out afternoon. Highs 62-68. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-58. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 72-78. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a shower possible early. Lows 52-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)
Looks like high pressure will be dominant surface and aloft with dry weather and above normal temperatures through the middle of this period then a trough from the west will try to knock the high down and bring some unsettled weather by later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)
A more changeable period of weather is expected as a flatter flow brings a series of low pressure waves across the region west to east. But high pressure will still be off the Atlantic Coast and the tropics may be active again so that may be another thing to keep an eye on toward the middle to end of the period.

70 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Looks like time on the campground beach Sunday, at least for a few hours during the afternoon.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Regarding yesterday’s discussion about Boston Buoy and the average water temperatures.

    I found this app. I installed it, but it required Adobe Air which was not available
    at the Google Play store. However, it looks like this app has been running
    for a while on Iphones. So for those interested here is what it looks like:

    https://imgur.com/a/FnIRsGL

    But I do not believe this has the water temperature history. Therefore, I have been
    tossing around an idea in my head. I am thinking of developing a new app
    where I will download water temperature data from as many buoys as I can.
    The create an interface allowing the user to select a buoy and a date, like 10/3
    and the average water temp will display. Also show graphs etc etc

    Does anyone think it would be worth it?

    I am certainly going to do this on my desktop for at least Boston Buoy, just wondering
    if a larger scale is warranted???

  5. My Rain totals for this week:

    10/1: 0.06
    10/2 0.44
    10/3 0.39
    ——
    Total 0.89 inch

    Rain? yup Flooding rain? Nope.

      1. Wow, you really got into the heavy stuff.
        Don’t you just love the rain gauge feature of your AcuRite
        weather station? That and the dew point. 😀

        1. I really do. I have to talk to you about its tendency to lose signal but right now things seem ok.

          I love everything about it – the charts as you had said are awesome.

          We have had a good amount of rain for a couple of months. I think we will be mowing our lawn in January 🙂

      2. Vicki, I had very similar rain totals here for the first three days of the month (2.33”). That on the heels of a 12”+ September. And to think portions of northern New England and New York are still in moderate to severe drought.

        1. Interesting, Mark. We must be in the same weather “trough” for lack of a better word.

          We had 11.17 inches of rain in last 31 days with 3.11 on 9/25 alone

          Since we set up my station on 6/18/18 we have had 26.88.

          It is hard to think of any drought that close. At one point this summer even we were heading toward a mild drought.

  7. What I like about Ryan’s posts is he makes it easy to understand for the lay person when it comes to why things in the world of the weather.

    2. Yes, agree, and I always appreciate Ryan’s explanations.

      TK’s whole blog is also a never-ending supply of the “why” and “how” behind the latest weather. Just the best.

  8. Here in CT we have had some wild weather in the month of October. The F4 Windsor Locks tornado on October 3, 1979, accumulating snowfall in Northwest Hills October 5, 1987, October Nor’easter October 29, 2011 with 12.3 inches of snow at BDL making it the biggest October snowfall on record. The previous record was 1.7 which fell a week after the Windsor Locks tornado. This system was also responsible for the biggest power outage in CT history. One year later on October 29, 2012 Sandy.

  9. Hi everyone…
    If you didn’t already know, there will be a National Alert System test from FEMA on your cell phone in less than an hour at 2:18 pm EDT. Most people I have talked to do not know about this, including most teachers in my school. Should be interesting!

    2. I knew but didn’t know the time. Thank you.

      And it is special to see you post. I darn near did a dance around my desk when I saw your name in the top right 🙂

    3. i guess the fema test shows how they can still contact you even if your phone is off, My phone was off and i got the alarm Which by the way is annoying and take airtime/minutes and data from my phone.

        2. A very loud alert and then something that very much
          looks like a text appeared right smack in the middle
          of the phone screen.

          fwiw, my wife did NOT get it on her phone either.

          Seems there was some sort of glitch.

        1. no one was political up there as far as I see, we were talking about the alarm which is not political in nature expecially since it was going to happen regardless of who is in charge. This is to do with disaster alerts which include weather phenomena

  12. In all seriousness, it was just like a typical weather alert. Hope it never ever becomes a real one though.

  14. Let me clarify…

    Discussing getting the presidential alert is not a political debate and is fine. It could be a governer’s alert, or a mayor’s alert, or a school committee alert. 😉

    I got mine too, twice, because I’m special. I even took a screen shot to remember the occasion. And to be honest, having it regardless of who the current and future presidents may be is actually a good idea, in my opinion. 🙂

    Good day all. Lots of errands!

      1. I did not get an alert, except for one of those fake IRS scam voicemails. You know, the ones that tell you in a robotic, computerized (yet feminine) voice … This is Jennifer Thornton, IRS official. Warning. You have 24 hours to call the number that appears on your screen. If you do not, you will be arrested.

        1. I believe only those with i/smart phones got the alert. Not certain about flip phones but there was nothing on my voicemail land line when I got home.

          1. As for those fake IRS calls, I can’t believe people still fall for them. I recently received one as well.

            1. Yes, I’m still a flip-phoner. My U.S. made phone is 18 years old. I’ve run over it accidentally with my car on my parents’ driveway 10 years ago. It’s fallen in salt water. Unbreakable. The battery was replaced once. In 2006! As a friend of my said, “your phone is so dumb that it doesn’t use up any battery.” The marvels of owning a dumb-phone.

              1. I had a flip phone middle school through first half of high school. It went through being dropped into water flying across rooms, dropping from ski lifts and survived and still have it fore emergencies for deep woods camping as I get better reception lol

            2. Philip, the elderly get caught up in the scams. It took me years to unravel everything my dad got involved in. He was in the beginning stages of dimentia. People who do this are lower than scum.

          2. My oldest did not get an alert on her newest iPhone that is updated. Her old iphone that her daughter uses did get the alarm

            I’m not finding any common denimonators although this type of thing fascinates me

  17. I don’t believe this is a record for tornadoes in one year here in CT. 4 of the 7 occurred back on May 15th. All of them this year here in CT were EF0’s or EF1’s.

  18. 2 of those 7 tornadoes that struck CT this year happened in Windham county which is in northeastern CT. The last tornado to happen in Windham county was back in 1992.

    1. Interesting. I’m looking for information but all I found is CT is ranked 42nd or maybe 43rd with an average of 1.3 a year. That seems low

  20. PRELIMINARY SURVEY RESULTS FOR NEW CANAAN-NORWALK CT TORNADO…

    START LOCATION…NEW CANAAN IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CT
    END LOCATION…NORWALK IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CT
    DATE…OCTOBER 2 2018
    ESTIMATED TIME…5:29 PM EDT TO 5:41 PM EDT
    MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING…EF1
    ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED…100 MPH
    MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…100 YARDS
    PATH LENGTH…3.9 MILES
    BEGINNING LAT/LON…41.1407/-73.5027
    ENDING LAT/LON…41.1062/-73.4431
    * FATALITIES…0
    * INJURIES…0

    …SUMMARY…
    THE TORNADO BEGAN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WEED ST AND MARSHALL
    RIDGE RD IN NEW CANAAN, AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FOR ALMOST 4 MILES,
    LIFTING AT THE INTERSECTION OF SCRIBNER AVE AND GILLIES LN IN
    NORWALK. DAMAGE WAS PRIMARILY TO TREES AND CARS

  21. Vivid colors appearing in Boston. A few cool nights and presto.

    Tiny bit of sports talk, if I may, TK.

    7-0 rout of the Bruins … ugh … and ugly …

    And, here come the red hot Yankees with a lineup loaded with Bronx bombers … ugh if you’re a Sox fan. In this wildcard game I was rooting for the club with the lowest payroll in the majors: the Oakland A’s. I also believe they pose less of a threat to the Sox than New York. Oh well. I do realize JJ, Mark, and I believe a few others on WHW are Yankee fans, so the news of the Yankees’ win is music to their ears. May the best team win. My gut tells me Yankees in 4 games, alas. I’m often wrong with these predictions, so I’m hoping that’s the case.

    1. At least with the B’s it was just one game, and they are going to have bad games. The team has a lot of young talent, and still some great veterans. They are not a top contender. They’ll need hard work, health, and a little luck to have a shot at winning it all. I don’t think this is the year. I think that is a few years away, actually.

      I’m not a fan of what I feel is unnecessary Rask bashing. He has weak moments and bad games, like any goalie, but he’s not as bad as his haters will claim. By the way, I didn’t really see the offense doing much. 😉 Yet people are putting the blame completely on one person.

      As for the Sox? Won’t be easy. They can do it though. I think they will. But the series is a best-of-five, so it won’t take long for us to find out the result.

Comments are closed.