Thursday Forecast

46 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)
The large scale pattern continues to feature a dominant trough in the western US and dominant ridge in the eastern US, which for the East is a generally warm pattern. Also, there has been a lot of early-season cold in central and northern Canada, though this has been generally locked up there because of a west to east flow up there and little chance for any of it to be pulled to the south. This pattern continues through this 5-day forecast period. Today will be one of the warmer days as we get into a southwesterly air flow ahead of a cold front. This front may bring a few showers to the region this evening just prior to or early in the Patriots game in Foxboro. Behind this front comes a brief shot of cool air for Friday, but as many of them before this one, the high pressure are will track north of the region, producing a northeasterly air flow, and then the high will sink to the south as we get into the weekend, resulting in a warming trend again. The boundary that went by late Thursday will be coming back but at this time it may not have enough moisture for any rainfall, just some cloudiness at times. For some, the “weekend” extends through Columbus Day Monday, then it looks like we’ll be back to a northeasterly air flow and a cool-down as the next bubble of high pressure moves across eastern Canada and northern New England. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-76. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior rural and suburban areas, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Same weather pattern continues for this period with the warm-up cycle October 9-10, then a likely repeat of the pattern yet again.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Weather pattern may turn a little wetter at mid month and will also have to watch for a potential tropical moisture connection.

46 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Another week chugging along.

    I see the EURO offers a tropical system, in the long range, on its 00z run. Not consistently yet, lets see if it shows up on future runs.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Drove in with Drizzle splatting on the windshield yet again. Has Boston
    become the drizzle capitol of the world????

  5. I have not yet heard of WHY some people did not receive the Emergency Test
    message yesterday.

    So, I throw out a theory….

    I was originally the only one with an account with AT&T. Later, I added my wife
    to the account with a 2nd number on the same account. Therefore, I am wondering
    IF only primary account phones received the message and it did not get transmitted
    to secondary phones???

    Just a thought since I have not heard anything.

    1. I think it was a glitch in the system . I got one really quick chirp , my wife received 2. Some got texts & some did not. I’m sure they will figure it out .

      1. What I described would also be a glitch, no?
        Obviously something is/was wrong and yes, I agree, they
        will figure it out.

      2. It was certainly a glitch. I’m thinking that is why they test. It is fun …at least for some of us…to try and find a common denominator

    2. I think you’re right, JPD. We have a family plan. I was the only one in the family to get the tone. Like TK, I also got two alerts, one at 2:18 and again at 2:39.
      I am sure that’s why they performed the test: to work out the kinks in the system.
      I am thinking they will need to send out a survey to the public to get feedback.

      Sun was out for a record-breaking 20 minutes here earlier, then the clouds rolled in. The late Red Sox announcer, Ned Martin, used to call these weather days “grungy.”

    3. JPD, to add to the mix….a Sutton friend who does not have service in his house….Sutton has not figured out what cell towers are yet….didn’t get the txt until he went out and into an area that had service.

  6. Thanks TK.

    FWIW, I didn’t get the alert yesterday. My phone was on silent, but I think I should’ve gotten it anyways. In the past I’ve received tornado and flash flood warnings via the emergency alert system. So, who knows.

  10. I thought that the Euro was going to be running at 6Z and 18Z starting
    Oct 1???

    If, so, then many of the model sites are not including those runs.
    Neither is my Euro service, for which I pay a monthly fee.

    Certainly Tropical Tidbits does not have it.
    Neither does Instant Weather maps.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    This has been a gray stretch. About as gray as late September through October 2005. We’ll see what October 2018 brings as we move forward.

  12. A few more hints showing up that the warm party is over after October 15. Still waiting on some further info to examine.

    1. The high tornado count in the NE would be easily explained by the persistent warmth and humidity and above average number of passing disturbances. This has been the prevailing pattern for sure. Its days are numbered.

  14. Still humid outside. Sticky. I guess this is due to all those high pressure areas sinking to our southeast. Interminable. It’s really been some stretch in this regard. I’ll be ecstatic when high pressure stays to our north for a change and we get a prevailing northwesterly.

    1. We’ve had a very stubborn pattern of highs being displaced north because of the ridge being as persistent as it has been. When you get that kind of anomaly, we end up with Carolinas and Virginia weather with high pressure passing to the north and a wind of maritime origin or at least traveling over maritime areas and picking up more moisture, putting it into the air that then moves into this region, and them holding it there while we warm up finally on the back-side of the high.

      This goes on a little longer, but the impacts of the combination generally trend less because of the time of year and length of daylight.,

      I say with low to moderate confidence that this pattern ends just after the middle of the month, but I am always cautious to be too certain, especially because we are not quite done seeing interactions of tropical systems with the jet stream which can throw guidance for a loop.

    1. Yes. The root of everything is MJO right now. It’s basically non-existent as a factor but at any time if it makes moderate intensity its impact can become very noticeable. I think overall though our AO will end up staying positive more than anything. It should hover around neutral for a while. Negative dips should be quick. But MJO may have a quick influence on this. But the MJO / ENSO is key because they are “not really speaking to each other” at the moment. We have to watch for them to start talking.

  16. Hi all! Not going back to beat a dead horse here but something I felt I should address from a couple weeks ago…

    When I shut down the comments for a few days recently, there was a very good reason I needed to do that. I had to do it in the interest of my health because of the stress that was taking a toll on an already bad situation. I’d been nearing 2 months of an autoimmune flare that was more severe than any I had experienced since the early 2000s. During this approximately 8 week stretch I had not missed one day of work, which had been very chaotic due to some major changes in the management and many additional responsibilities that I had to take on. When we got to that point on this blog where a political argument erupted, closely following an incident in which a frequent contributor was openly attacked, both very much against the blog guidelines, I reached a breaking point.

    What was right: The action of shutting the blog comments down was the right thing to do and I stand by it.

    What was not right: Not using my stress level as an excuse, there is simply a much better way I could have gone about controlling my reaction to everything ongoing. While anybody taking part in the political argument was technically in the wrong by going against the guidelines, my reaction likely made innocent bystanders and long-standing guideline followers feel lumped in as one. Of course this was not my intention, but in hindsight with a calmer look I can see the impact it would have had.

    What was changed: I updated the “guidelines” which really should be called “rules” for posting to be more clear about what is ok and what is not ok here, and of course with the request to email me at the email given in the “about” section with any concerns or questions. There are times when I don’t get to check my emails for several days but I try to get them in as timely a fashion as I can.

    So lastly, because I feel I could have handled the situation better, I extend an apology to anybody that was made to feel a way that was not intended.

    Now, with more clear rules in place, it’s my sincere belief that such problems can be avoided going forward. It’s not always easy to have a group of people get along perfectly in any setting. But we each have to do the best we can every time we are here. This will avoid issues. And there is always the option to take up a discussion privately with somebody you have an issue with, or to just leave it alone. I leave that to all of you to decide if/when you come across it. And as always, if you think there is something I can help with, email me.

    Thanks for reading the long post here!

    And yes, with all the sports action going on (Bruins, Pats, Sox), sports chatter is fine. Just remember to keep that within the rules as well. 🙂

    1. Very nice TK. Thank you. I am a huge fan of honest, open dialogue. It isn’t easy but I’ve never once regretted it. This is a family. Families have ups and downs. Considering the many personalities here, I think we do darned well.

      I always appreciate your hard work and expertise.

      Continue to heal. And wait. What sports?

      1. I was in line waiting for a pickup at CVS

        Pretty much Right up there with expertise, I appreciate the family we are

          1. Ping pong & cricket. The New England Ding Dongs are playing the Indianapolis Paddle Whackers in ping pong, and cricket is a big game between the Boston Chirpers and Buffalo Wing Swingers.

  17. Near record warmth next week? Fingers crossed I hope will be the last for the season. Although I do wonder if Indian Summer later on down the road will feel more like “actual” summer with one last blast of anomolous heat/humidity.

  18. Here are Boston’s record high temps for the next couple weeks. Based on this information and my expectations of upcoming weather, I don’t think any of these records are remotely in danger of falling with one possible exception…

    October 5: 87 in 1922
    October 6: 86 in 1990
    October 7: 90 in 1963
    October 8: 88 in 1879
    October 9: 82 in 1942
    October 10: 87 in 1939
    October 11: 82 in 1955
    October 12: 90 in 1954
    October 13: 87 in 1930
    October 14: 81 in 1923
    October 15: 86 in 1897
    October 16: 88 in 1897
    October 17: 89 in 1947
    October 18: 82 in 1947
    October 19: 84 in 1945
    All of the records from October 20-31 range between 78 and 84 and were set from 1900 through 1979, so as you can see, these are all long-standing records as none of them occurred after 1990.

    If one of these records falls, the most vulnerable one as I see it now is October 11, IF the timing of systems doesn’t end up faster. I think all the other records are safe (though I can’t be super confident beyond one week just by normal standards, although I don’t see anything that leads me to believe we’ll have warmth that anomalous).

      1. Remains to be seen, but probably not oppressive. That’s almost impossible to get from around mid October on. We’ll have days that are humid by October standards. The greatest chance of this is middle of next week. I don’t think Sunday’s warm-up this weekend will be that humid.

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