Saturday Forecast

29 Comments

10:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)
It will be a weekend of variable and often plentiful cloudiness as we’ll be near the border of the cool air that was over the region in force yesterday and much warmer air located to the south. The region will end up on the warmer side of this boundary Sunday and back on the cooler side of it Monday, though neither today nor Monday will be as chilly as the mid to late October feel of yesterday. The threat of any shower activity is pretty minimal with only the risk of an isolated shower passing by any given location during Sunday afternoon. The indecisive boundary will push back to the north Tuesday and introduce much warmer air at that time into mid week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Southeastern MA mostly to partly sunny, elsewhere mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Many potential factors play into the outlook for this period of time, including the timing of a front from the west early in the period. Right now thinking that October 11 turns out showery but mild and there may be the potential for heavy rainfall involved if tropical moisture from the south gets involved. After that a switch to drier and somewhat cooler weather but another system may try to bring cloudiness or a few showers at some point during the course of the second weekend of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)
Saying “I have no solid idea” would be a more confident statement than trying to actually make a forecast here, but I will say that my idea is for a transitional pattern that battles between lingering warmth and increased chances for shots of cool air with at least one opportunity for a widespread wet weather event.

29 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Another issue I am seeing and will monitor is that in an area of the Rockies and in an area of south central canada the new GFS (FV3gfs) been showing 30 to as much as 60 inches falling by the end of the run, the regular gfs, euro and CMC, all have snowfall rates up to about 20 inches

  4. Up to 58 now. We were in 60s here yesterday. I am still in short sleeve tee shirt mode. I love this weather.

  6. several ski areas were firing up the snow guns yesterday and today. Ski season is comming, Hopeful for a good early season as well as second half, but I got free tickets for December so I want a good December 🙂

  7. Thank you, TK…

    42 crisp degrees here in Taunton as this morning’s low.
    If the latest GFS has its way, looks like a stormy night on Thursday (if my untrained eye is reading it right!)…

    This Captain Fantastic is off to see the REAL Captain Fantastic tonight at the Garden. I am so looking forward to the show, his Farewell Goodbye Yellow Brick Road tour. I have been listening to Elton John all my life and his catalogue has been the soundtrack of my life. Might be the last time I will see him in concert.

    Go Sox! Go Elton!

    Have a great weekend everyone! And, don’t forget, “Saturday Night’s Alright!”

    2. I’m so happy for you. I won’t say have a blast because I know you will. If you don’t mind, will you sing extra loud to Goodbye Yellow Brick Road. It was one of Macs favorites.

  8. As for the above question about the tropical system…
    I addressed as best I could in the DAYS 6-10 section.

  9. As for the cold in Canada. Yes, this will play a role going forward, but not directly quite yet. Y’all are going to start noticing a lot of different things that we have seen before but not for a while in the months ahead. But the entire thing may take 2 years to evolve.

        1. Honestly, I expected that the AMO was involved, but I am clueless as to what you are getting at…

  10. NHC has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 14, which they forecast to be near Cat 1 hurricane intensity at landfall on the Gulf Cost in about 4 days. Would be named “Michael” as some others have mentioned. We’ll have to watch this, because as TK has noted in his forecast, if moisture from this gets tangled up with our frontal system next week we could be looking at a heavy rain event. Before that comes the long anticipated stretch of above to well above average temperatures this week, which is not uncommon with these late season Caribbean tropical developments, something I mentioned some time ago.

    After that front and the potential Michael effects clear our region, we may get an interlude of much cooler weather. Perhaps some places in New England see their first snowflakes of the season in the 7-12 day range. But more and more, this looks temporary, and I think East Coast ridging will dominate the synoptic pattern for the remainder of the month.

    1. That ridge is going to want to keep trying to come back, probably until an El Nino onset.

  11. TK – What does AMO stand for? Is the 2 years you mentioned related to a subtle climate change over time?

    2. The current cycle which is positive peaks in 2019-2020 and then starts to decline. It takes a long time to have a major impact. But the index can have spikes in both directions during its longer term trend.

        1. Don’t worry, it’ll get clarified over time. I left a lot out too. AMO is only one thing I’m referring to. Solar and PDO are 2 others, but not everything. 🙂

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