Sunday Forecast

84 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)
Milder air has moved in, but a cold front will be dropping southward through the region later in the day, and may trigger a few showers in an otherwise largely rain-free day today. This front, like many others, will be followed by a bubble of high pressure moving east southeastward across southeastern Canada, bringing an onshore flow into the region Monday. The high will then sink to the south southeast and turn the wind more southerly by Tuesday, and then southwesterly by Wednesday, transporting more warm air back into the region. As we get to Thursday, a front will be moving in from the west and at the same time, tropical moisture and possibly the low pressure system itself associated with what is forecast to be TS Michael in the eastern Gulf of Mexico moving into the southeastern US. What isn’t known yet is timing of potential wet weather and magnitude of rainfall, including the level of warmth which will be dependent on cloud cover and rainfall timing. With this still 5 days away, there will be plenty of time to fine-tune it. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy very light drizzle early morning. Isolated rain showers afternoon favoring areas near and south of I-90. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW from north to south during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 50-56. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Damp. Highs 57-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Patchy drizzle. Slight chance of a rain shower. Damp. Lows 50-56. Wind SE under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Muggy. Rain showers likely especially afternoon and night with the potential for heavy rainfall. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Drier weather, lowering humidity, but still mild October 12. October 13-14 weekend turns cooler with mostly dry weather expected but will watch a weak low pressure area that should pass to the south of the region. Dry with below normal temperatures and a stronger flow of air from the northwest later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)
May have to watch one area of wet weather to the south around the middle of the period but overall the early idea is for mostly dry weather and temperatures near to below normal for the middle of the month.

84 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. I love them. Today is a walk around the pond morning, and a split between indoor and outdoor projects, including washing the windows and screens. 🙂

  2. Thank you, TK. Windows here this weekend also. I seems to have shaken whatever it was I had the last week or so which means fall cleaning is on starting tomorrow 🙂 🙂 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.

    All of a sudden, most models are now showing what is now TD 14 being near or at major hurricane intensity in 3-4 days at landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. We’ll see. That would be a lot of strengthening in a short period of time. It’s possible, but will have to come together very quickly. NHC remains much more conservative, forecasting only a low end hurricane at landfall.

    1. I tried to have coffee on the deck but the mosquitoes chased me in. I don’t usually see them in the morning….actually, other than after dark, there have not been many this year.

      1. The late crop was late and prolific this season. Fuel: Heat and above normal rain in August and September. Breeding bonanza.

        1. True but we have not seen that in general. Just after dark. So I’ll take it. First morning though. But really muggy

  5. Just got back from Sarasota gulf temps still in the mid eighties plenty of fuel for potential Michael. Hopefully enough wind down there to break up the red tide.

  6. Thanks TK
    We got a series now between the Yankees and Red Sox. Price pretty much did what you expected him to do against a Yankees team which beats him up when he is on the mound. Big time pressure on the Red Sox in game 3 tomorrow night.

    1. No, what you expected him to do. He let us Red Sox fans down big time.
      Our sportscasters up here call him a PUDDLE!!

  8. I was going to ask I am sure the fans on Boston sports talk are not happy with Price this morning and to give someone a 217 million dollar contract with a guy who has never gotten it done in the postseason to me was mind boggling.

    1. The Yankees have made some bad decisions too . Uh Jacoby Ellsbury off the top of the head has contributed 0 $153

    2. I think Price is a very good pitcher but for some reason he hasn’t done a thing in the post season. Ouch.

      1. He is clearly very talented, but in certain situations he
        becomes an instant head case. It’s not physical, it’s all mental.

        1. They should seriously give up on him as a starter and stick him in the bullpen and use only as a last resort when there is literally nobody left to pitch. He is clearly a regular season player ONLY.

          In the second spot, next man up! (ala the Patriots)

          1. Btw, since the offense is still there, I believe the team should be able to win this series and move on to Houston.

              1. I really believe it will go 5. Maybe win both in NY? Not totally out of the question imo, but at least one.

  10. It is currently 71 degrees here in Sudbury. Frankly, ‘though it’s nice out, windows open, etc. it just doesn’t seem right. Doesn’t feel or look like fall. There aren’t any particularly pretty clouds that I can see – but the sun is in and out and the light and sky itself is what I would personally call “weirdly beautiful”. And our “mushroom garden” is flourishing nicely. Yuccck. Hope all enjoy the day, ‘though, as it looks to be better than tomorrow when it will be damper and cooler.

    1. Other than bits of color here and there, most trees still just as green as they did in August. Only the calendar says “fall”.

      1. I know. I have seen some scattered trees with vivid colors that really stand out among the other trees still green.

        1. Close to normal for the new normal. They remain at what changed several years ago and the reason towns that collect two weeks later than they used to.

          1. At least once we get by the AMO peak things will start heading in the other direction. 🙂

  12. I hope those below normal temps can last through the end of the month into Halloween…and beyond for that matter.

    1. I don’t think we’ll go persistently below, but we’ll start seeing that more, and then a break (as WxW indicated which I agree with). But starting to see a little more reason to buy a near to below normal Nov / Dec for temps.

  13. Autumn colors are ranging from a few days (maximum 1 week) behind to right on schedule so far. The claims that they were up to 2 weeks behind are very incorrect. Already comparing to pictures from this time last year. Last year was behind by 1 to 2 weeks, not the case this time.

    1. I’ll have to respectfully disagree. Posted above before I saw this. We are about 95% green. And for years we have typically been raking leaves up to thanksgiving. As mentioned above, towns had to move last pickup to around thanksgiving. I’m too old to not remember that last leaf collection has always been first week of November.

      2. I’m speaking more local in this case because I haven’t been branching out much lately. Up here we are definitely ahead of last year by about 4 to 7 days. I am sure it varies by location.

        1. Just talked to daughter and her burning bushes are about 10 days behind where they were when then first moved there 12 years ago and even behind last year. She has photos from each year. I know framingham is behind also. You are further north of course

    1. Trough West, ridge East! Reversing that not too long from now. But some transition time first.

  15. I hate to say this but Mookie Betts for the second straight year has vastly underperformed thus far in the playoffs as well. He’s batting .143. I hope he breaks out of it and soon or the Sox are cooked.

    1. I have certainly noticed that he is struggling mightily. They certainly need him.
      Perhaps he’ll bounce back tomorrow.

      1. What hopefully happens is that another player out of nowhere gets hot and picks up the slack. It has happened. Ted Williams was horrible during the 1946 series. Unfortunately, no one else picked up the slack I assume.

          1. As long as the offense gets a decent lead like in Game 1 and the closer actually “closes”. 😉

  16. Very threatening here but not a speck on radar anywhere in NE other than some near Albany. Very strange and so dark. Almost eerie looking.

      1. Actually here for awhile it was clear blue skies and almost 100% sunshine. Of course it is anything but that now.

    2. There’s plenty of lift for clouds but not a lot of lifts for showers. the best chance of showers will be over the next couple of hours south of I-90.

      Here in Woburn the front went by about 2:45 p.m. and the temperature is going down now.

      1. I think it is starting to go down here as well.
        Looking at 76 and it was 80 a short time ago. 😀

    1. That should say for today’s date.

      I’ll change wording to something like:

      Historical Water Temperature Statistics for: 10/7

        1. Yes, with the 12 years of data, 1985-1997.
          I have to load in 1998 to 2017 which will undoubtably
          change the average. I believe it will be more like
          57-58 or so.

          1. That works. Thank you for this. It is awesome If you need data entered into anything and I can help, please let me know.

            1. Thank you, I am good. Just will take some time of which I had a bit this weekend.

              Btw, the next extension of this
              is to have a user interface where the
              user can type in a date and the app
              will spit out the historical statistics.

              Want to know what the average water temperature is on the 4th of July, just plug it in and viola there it is.

              Full disclosure. There were 24 hourly readings. I summed those and divided by 24 to get the average for each day.

              I have to go back and make sure to get a count and NOT assume 24 as that will skew the average big time.

              Still a work in progress.

              Thank you.

  23. CPC has the region in below normal on their 6-10 and near to below normal on their 8-14 for temps.

  24. I was on deck speaking to a friend in PA and it got really threatening. Took a while but rain did arrive and chase me inside

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