Monday Forecast

50 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)
We have had plenty of air mass changes lately, and another one occurred Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front dropped down from the north and cooled the region off again. We’ll remain in that cooler air today before the front goes back to the north as a warm front early Tuesday, bringing one more taste of summer into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. The next weather change will be slightly more dramatic as a stronger cold front approaches from the west Thursday and moisture from Gulf of Mexico TS Michael, forecast to be a hurricane before landfall on the FL Panhandle, gets involved with the front and enhances the rainfall. The actual system should pass just south of the region early Friday, but far enough south to keep its heaviest rain and strongest wind offshore, although a slight shift to the north in that track and things could change. For now will go for a quicker improvement in weather on Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Isolated rain showers. Highs 57-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Patchy drizzle. Scattered rain showers. Damp. Lows 50-56 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to S.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Muggy. Rain showers likely especially afternoon and night with the potential for heavy rainfall. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain especially southeastern areas early, then clouds/sun and breezy. Less humid. Temperatures fall through the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)
October 13-14 weekend looks dry and quite cool, sun/cloud mix with a gusty breeze Saturday, more sun Sunday. Wave of low pressure may bring unsettled weather October 15 before more dry and chilly weather follows this.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)
Current indications are for a fairly quiet pattern with mainly dry weather and below to near normal temperatures.

50 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thank you.

    Great news for weekend. It is our Waters Farm day in Sutton and from what I understand has a history of rainy weather.

  5. TK thanks for both forecasts.

    Clip from SAK’s blog: “gusty winds and some heavy rain Thursday into Friday. The front brings in some rain on Thursday, then Michael brings in another round on Friday. How heavy the rain on Friday will be is still up in the air… The best chance for heavy rain will be south of the Mass Pike.”

  6. Thanks TK. Got a 10:00 t-time at Granite Links Friday morning. Not looking good at the moment, but plenty of time to change.

      1. Thanks yeah it is a bit of a drive. My youngest brother lives in Dorchester and my other brother is coming in from California. So nice course for a special occasion.

    1. Now forecast to become a Major Hurricane:

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
      12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
      24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
      36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
      48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
      72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
      96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
      120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

  9. This has escalated from 24 hours ago where the thinking was a landfall strong tropical storm low end category 1 hurricane.
    Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk on why this could strengthen in a major hurricane.
    The weak trough and PV streamer which has been lingering over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to weaken considerably over the next 12-24 hours. With 200-850hPa shear expected to weaken considerably as well, the potential exists for #Michael to strengthen into a Major Hurricane.

  10. Asia and the arctic are still extremely warm for this time of year, been like this for a while. look at those 2m anomalies while Canada particularly central and eastern areas are cooler, I would think this would favor a cooler europe?

  15. Thank you, TK.

    Dismal. I rarely if ever use that word in October, but this has been a bad stretch of grays, going back to September. When it’s not gray it’s humid and warm. So humid that the pumpkin I bought 3 weeks ago and placed in the living room has already deteriorated. I threw it out. This occurred in October 2005, but has not happened since. It’s just so friggin’ humid and damp outside, and I live in a basement which traps the humidity.

  16. From what I have heard, the carolinas stand to get perhaps six more inches of rain. They had already received significant rain prior to Florence. They surely do not need any more.

      1. Sorry and I know what you mean. Between relatives and friends, I have a lot in the area. I’m still dumbfounded by the lack of coverage the area received after Florence.

      1. That’s on the other side of the city. Helicopters were buzzing around but have since departed the area. Perhaps because the stratus overcast was getting lower & lower and they couldn’t see anymore. 😛

  20. Nice win for the Bruins today. Offense was there, 6 goals, though one was E.N. … Hat trick for #37! Rask was solid, although “fans” will still find fault with him. These same fans have yet to respond to my questions about why they won’t fault the entire team for the opening loss. 😉 I don’t dispute he was pretty bad in that game, but so was every other member of the team. No defense. No offense. But very nice bounce-back in the next 2 games! 2-1 after 3 with your loss to the defending champions is no biggie. The 7-0 is no different than a 1-0 in the standings. The Bruins have obviously moved on from it. 🙂

      1. Ha ha ha.
        Well, for the record, I was not using it to forecast.
        I was merely posting for amusement purposes only. 😀

  22. I know all the other sports and what is going on but I am wondering how KC chiefs vs Patriots game will be next weekend. Its going to be a good one, will the patriots offense make enough plays to keep up with KC? Will the patriots defense show up and play better than everyone else has against KC, Better than the Jags?

  23. Kudos for nat grid but I am concerned about this happening in yet another area. It has not happened before. Even the one prior is different from a few…perhaps one….in the past. TK. Not sure if you saw my question. Does your house have gas. I can say I am happy we do not.

  24. Something to keep an eye on later this week. Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    Great synoptics for a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in the Northeast late week associated with #Michael. Deep tropical moisture is transported along axis between incoming trough and western periphery of Atlantic ridge, lift enhanced by right entrance region of 250hPa jet streak.

  25. Ryan Hanrahan also tweeted out about that potential predecessor rain event late week
    We’re watching the potential for a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) out ahead of Michael’s remnants later Thursday. Stream of tropical moisture, right entrance region of jet streak, and approaching mid level trough. Can lead to localized heavy rain well ahead of storm itself.

    1. That would not entirely surprise me. There is some cold air in Canada and the pattern finally starts getting it into the Midwest and East instead of the Rockies and West soon.

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