Tuesday Forecast

64 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Another warm surge is on the way, coming in behind a warm frontal passage this morning and lasting through Wednesday. But quick changes will follow this as our warm-up is attacked from 2 directions, the first being the friendly warm front which will have turned around and sneaked back as a a back-door cold front that slips in via the Gulf of Maine late Wednesday night into early Thursday, bringing a rather quick temperature drop. While this cool air invades the region from northeast to southwest at the surface, the warm and humid air will continue to flow just over that and another cold front will be approaching from the northwest, which itself would bring numerous showers, though these will be somewhat enhanced due to an infusion of moisture from Michael, a land-falling hurricane Wednesday on the Florida Panhandle, weakening to a tropical storm as it passes across Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday. The front that came through as a back-door cold front will likely return back to the northeast as a warm front yet again Thursday night, just ahead of the cold front from the northwest, which will finally start pushing everything out of here as the center of Michael’s remains passes south of New England early Friday during its transition to an ordinary low pressure area. The passage of this low may be close enough to hold some rainfall in near the South Coast for a portion of Friday morning before a drying trend overtakes the entire region. Friday itself will still be somewhat mild as we’ll have to wait for a secondary cold front to deliver much cooler air by the start of the weekend as it passes by early Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with patchy fog morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Increasingly humid. Highs 73-79. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 75-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy with areas of fog, patchy drizzle, and a chance of showers overnight. Humid evening, damp overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE from northeast to southwest.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with scattered to numerous showers morning. Widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms with possible heavy rainfall afternoon and evening. Damp morning, muggy afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind light E morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with rain likely South Coast and a chance of showers elsewhere, then a clearing trend. Lowering humidity. Temperatures generally steady in the 60s cooling into the 50s at night.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy early then mostly sunny. Lows from the middle to upper 40s. Highs from the middle to upper 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Chilly and bright start and milder and filtered sun finish to October 14. Moisture from former Pacific Hurricane Sergio, in the form of a low pressure area passing northwest of the region with a trailing cold front, brings a chance of showers sometime during October 15 to early October 16. The remainder of this period looks generally dry with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Trend for this period is mostly dry weather other than a minor rain shower threat from a frontal passage around mid period, and near to below normal temperatures dominating.

64 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks, TK…
    I think our blog can be appropriately subtitled “50 Shades of Grey” these days.
    Another murky, grungy morning!

    Nonetheless, Sox clobbered the Yanks, 16-1, at the Stadium, so things are looking up!

    Enjoy the day, y’all!

  6. Good morning, I think that lately, Boston has become the DRIZZLE capitol of
    the world. Every time I look up, it’s drizzling again.

    Ya think Nathan Eovaldi can pitch? Sox made an excellent move obtaining him.

    Go Sox!

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Yes, indeed, more grays. While the sun may peak through the clouds later today and tomorrow, Thursday and Friday will feature more … gray. I don’t mind gray that much. I have gray slacks and shirts. But, weather-wise gray is dismal, especially if it’s not raining or snowing. Indications are that next week will feature the kind of weather I’ve been waiting for for a very long time. That forecast still may change, but I’m hoping.

    Great for the Sox to quiet the fans at Yankees stadium. But, the Yankees are not done. It’s just one loss. A Yankee win tonight gives them momentum. However, Aaron Boone has not shined this season or this series. The Severino issue is exhibit A. I thought going into last night’s game that the Yankees should have given Severino an extra day’s rest and start Sabathia who’s had ample rest. Then, there was Severino’s inexplicable tardiness. And then it was clear from the first pitch Severino had nothing. Contrary to the TBS announcers who spend their time doing non-analysis or putting you to sleep (Ron Darling), Severino did not look “good” in the first inning. He was lucky to escape. None of his pitches were working. Same thing in the 2nd and 3rd innings. If it’s possible to be worse than David Price in a post-season start, Severino achieved that distinction. He did this last year, too, against the Twins in the wildcard game. Needless to say, he’s not Mr. Reliable. Tanaka and Sabathia are savvy veterans, on the other hand.

    1. Great analysis. If I might add one thought….The Red Sox typically have had
      Sabathia’s number over the years. Let’s see IF they can dial it up tonight
      and finish off the Yanks (sorry JJ).

      Contrary to some Red Sox fans, I do NOT hate the Yankees. I have always
      respected them as a formidable opponent. I love Red Sox Yankees series, especially in the post-season. 😀

  8. Thanks TK!

    I can’t believe how many people outright gave up on the Red Sox after game 2. I mean, I’m usually the pessimist where the Sox are concerned but I was really surprised how down people were on them. I said winner of game 1 would win the series, and I still feel that way. David Price is a total bum and Mookie has shown he doesn’t do well with the playoff pressure either, but it goes to show there’s a lot of other talent on that team to compensate. My only word of caution for the Sox would be that a 16-1 win counts the same as any other win, and teams move on fast. Just look at the Bruins after their season opener. But I think the Sox win the series.

    Michael approaching major hurricane status this morning. That escalated pretty quickly. Dangerous hurricane landfall upcoming on the FL Panhandle.

    1. GFS has it as a 942 MB system at landfall or close to landfall.
      That would be at the very high end of a CAT3 and just about a CAT 4.
      As you say dangerous landfall, especially with the land configuration
      where it will hit. Watch out for that storm surge.

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018100906/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_8.png

      Euro has it as 952 mb, still a Cat 3, but not quite as severe as the GFS depicts it:

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018100900/ecmwf_T850_seus_3.png

      HWRF – 947 MB

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2018100906/hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_13.png

      HMON – 947MB

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2018100906/hmon_mslp_wind_14L_12.png

      No matter how you slice it, NOT GOOD!

  12. Thanks TK
    Ugly night if your a Yankees fan. The series is not over. I felt if the Severino who pitched the wild card game and the first half of the season showed up Yankees win. If the Severino who pitched like he did most of the second half showed up Red Sox win. We all know which Severino showed up.

    1. Yes, but your Yankees are not out of this series. They’ve got a powerful lineup, great bullpen, and decent starters. Anything can happen. It’s too bad this is not the ALCS.

  14. JP Dave, bless you for saying this, because I have always felt the same way: “Contrary to some Red Sox fans, I do NOT hate the Yankees. I have always respected them as a formidable opponent. I love Red Sox Yankees series, especially in the post-season.”

    I’ve never understood the “Yankees suck” chant, or “Boston sucks” for that matter. I remember hearing “Yankees suck” in 1998(!) at a Sox-Yankees game and feeling embarrassed to be a Red Sox fan. The Yankees were perhaps the greatest baseball team ever assembled that year.

    I do like a heated rivalry. And it is the best in sports as far as I’m concerned. And I enjoy watching the Sox quiet Yankee Stadium, as I’m sure Yankee fans enjoy watching the Yankees quiet Fenway Park.

    JP Dave, you’re correct that Sabathia has had struggles with the Sox, especially when he was an Indian. Yet, he’s a gamer. The opposite of Price in terms of mentality. He nibbles now, but he’s effective.

    1. GREAT GREAT comment. I think rivalries traditional exist throughout sports. We are taught this in high school, if not sooner. But I never understood it either. I love to see a good team…..period. I enjoy my home team whether it wins or loses. And enjoy a good opponent.

  16. sports rivalries are just for fun, its not hate for a person its a dislike for the team, we have had players that have gone to teams we do not like but that does not mean we do not like the player.

  17. Michael will be the first cat 3 hurricane to make a US landfall in over a decade. It may weaken sightly before landfall but banking on low end 3. Good news that it high tails it across the Southeast, limiting rainfall, and gets back out over water where it can accelerate away from land while becoming post tropical.

    1. Ugh for the area where it makes landfall. GREAT news that it is moving along quickly. They had said possible six inches through Carolinas yesterday which, frankly, is six inches too much after the summer rains they had and then Florence. Is it possible it will be less? I sure am hoping for less.

  18. Based on the recon plane, Michael’s wind field is strong, but not yet extremely spread out. This shows up nicely on the plots on Tropical Tidbits.

    Whereas Florence had 85 kt flight level winds far away from the center, Michael currently has very strong winds around the center that quickly drop off not too far away from the center.

    In addition to intensity, it will be interesting to see if the wind field spreads out more prior to landfall.

    Quite a storm surge coming just to the right (east) of landfall.

  19. That area of the Gulf that Michael is headed for has another disadvantage.

    It barely has any tidal change. Its range is about 1 ft.

    At least in NC, if you landfall at low tide, you get an extra 5 vertical feet of room to take away from some of the storm surge.

    In Panama City, no such luck. The tide level never drops much to take any edge off of the surge. It does not really matter what part of the day Michael landfalls.

    In New England, this is huge during our winter storms. Unfortunately, last winter, we always seemed to match max surge with high tide.

  20. Regarding the above statement: US should read FL. Not sure even how I missed that it went in as US. 🙂 Wilma 2005 was a FL landfall.

      1. The last time it snowed in October in Boston, all we got out of the 2011-12 winter was a widespread 3-6 inch snow event in mid-January with the final total of 9.3” for the entire season.

        It had better NOT snow this October! 😉

        1. Haha. Before that we had snow early October. Someone else will remember the year but I do recall it was during a Pats game and I headed outside with my first grand who was not old enough to recall snow. So maybe fall 2009 or 10

  22. Michael’s pressure getting down near the euro’s projected pressure at 8am tomorrow of 954 mb.

    Intense, but still a fairly compact wind field.

  24. Just for fun (for now)…
    18z GFS is a little snowier in New England than the 12z run was.

  25. May be on the way to cat 4 …..

    Pressure still falling, last eyeball pass had flight levels winds slightly above 125 knots. Satellite presentation looks very good.

    1. Storms that are rapidly strengthening upon landfall are bad news. Reminds me of Charley as it hit the west coast of FLA in 2004. Florence on the other hand was rapidly weakening upon landfall which minimized the wind damage. That will not be the case here. Really concerned for the Panhandle.

      Only consolation is that this is a fast moving system so inland flooding will not be the level that it was with Florence.

  26. What a wintery pattern on the 18z GFS! Cold and several chances for New England snow beginning next week:

    Next Tuesday:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100918&fh=162

    10/20:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100918&fh=252

    10/21:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100918&fh=276

    10/23:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100918&fh=324

    10/25:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100918&fh=384

    1. we can only hope that its the GFS, I rather not see snow in October. For obvious reasons. Never good for when the snow actually counts 🙂

      1. I know, it is usually the kiss of death, but I suspect the GFS might be a bit overdone.

        One thing looks like a given though….pattern change and much colder weather on the way.

  27. I was up hiking on Mount Washington on Sunday. Foliage at Pinkham Notch was at peak. Lots of yellow and red color along Route 16 and people pulling off the road to take pictures.

    I snapped this shot of the Crystal Cascades near the start of the Tuckerman Ravine Trail:
    https://i.postimg.cc/9FmNZ3Qy/IMG_8786.jpg

    1. what trails have you hiked on MT Washington? I have done a few back in high school and middle school, I liked Lions Head, some of my fellow boy scouts called me MTN goat after that. Some of the troop leaders did not like that we did that trail…….But the views were to die for, we got a very nice Blue day and not that windy for MT Washington. It was probably my favorite hike that I have done.

      2. That is what we did Sunday. Lions Head up and back down through Tuckermans Ravine. That’s probably my favorite trail on the mountain as well. Clouds were fairly thick but we did get some breaks and decent views into the ravine. Summit was socked in with 45 mph winds and temps in the upper 40s.

        In addition to Lions Head and Tuckermans, I have done Boott Spur on the east side and Ammonoosuc Ravine and the Jewell Trails up the west side. West side loop is a bit more of a gradual ascent but longer distance wise.

  28. To reply to your supposition, Mark, yes the GFS pattern is likely a little overdone. It will certainly be cooler going through the second half of October, and I’m pretty sure we’ll have had frost and at least some freeze in the area by the end of the month, and the first flakes at the very least in the hills and mountains. Anything beyond that is really just speculation without much support. The take-away here is really just “pattern change”.

  29. Regarding the snow in October rule. The type of pattern coming up that would produce October flakes (potentially) is not the type that would be regarded as the “kiss of death” for winter, necessarily.

    Although that is really only a loose rule. It works about 60% of the time.

    1. I vividly remember the freak October 4 snowstorm we had in 1987 when I was growing up in the Albany NY area. We had about 6” at our house but some of the hill towns had over 18”. Out of curiosity, I checked the snow totals for Albany that winter and they ended up with 77” which was about 17” above normal.

      We’ll see. I’m cautiously optimistic for this winter. I think the cold at least will be there. If we can crank up that subtropical jet and drive some storms up the coast, we could be in business.

    1. Not good …..

      At least by the graph on tropical tidbits, wind field still looks compact as compared to recent memorable storms, such as Florence and Irma.

      I hope everyone is evacuated where the eye makes landfall and points east.

Comments are closed.