Wednesday Forecast

129 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)
This update will be short and sweet, as there are basically no changes from yesterday. Today will feel like summer. Tonight, a front will slip down from the Gulf of Maine, bringing a rather quick temperature drop. While this cool air invades the region from northeast to southwest at the surface, the warm and humid air will continue to flow just over that and another cold front will be approaching from the northwest, which itself would bring numerous showers, though these will be somewhat enhanced due to an infusion of moisture from Michael, a land-falling powerful hurricane day on the Florida Panhandle today, weakening to a tropical storm as it passes across Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday. The front that came through as a back-door cold front will likely return back to the northeast as a warm front yet again Thursday night, just ahead of the cold front from the northwest, which will finally start pushing everything out of here as the center of Michael’s remains passes south of New England on Friday during its transition to an ordinary low pressure area. The passage of this low may be close enough to hold some rainfall in near the South Coast for a portion of Friday morning before a drying trend overtakes the entire region. Friday itself will still be somewhat mild as we’ll have to wait for a secondary cold front to deliver much cooler air by the start of the weekend as it passes by early Saturday. High pressure will be in full control Sunday – a perfect autumn day. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 75-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy with areas of fog, patchy drizzle, and a chance of showers overnight. Humid evening, damp overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE from northeast to southwest.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with scattered to numerous showers morning. Widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms with possible heavy rainfall afternoon and evening. Damp morning, muggy afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind light E morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Muggy. Lows 62-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with rain likely South Coast and a chance of showers elsewhere, then a clearing trend. Lowering humidity. Temperatures generally steady in the 60s cooling into the 50s evening.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle to upper 40s. Highs from the middle to upper 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Low pressure that was once Pacific Hurricane Sergio will pass north of the region October 15 bringing a front with rain showers through. Much of the remainder of the period will be dry with below normal temperatures through a reinforcing cold front is due around October 18.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)
Trend for this period is mostly dry weather other than a minor rain shower threat from a couple frontal passages, and near to below normal temperatures dominating. May have to watch for the approach of a larger wet weather system by the end of the period.

129 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Recent pass shows 110 knot surface wind in the eastern side of the eyewall.

    Pressure down to 936 mb. Could we see this make landfall sub 930 mb ???????

  4. Thanks TK.

    Michael is an incredibly impressive hurricane this morning. Really just a stone’s throw away from Cat 5 intensity. Pressure of 933mb is in line with a typical borderline Cat 4/5 system. Landfall about 6-8 hours away. Will be catastrophic along portions of the FL Panhandle coastline.

  9. I certainly can see a way in which it could change, but currently I am not impressed
    with modeled rain amounts forecast for our area tomorrow out ahead of Michael. Certainly well below PRE criteria (Predecessor Rain Event). I see ranges from about 2 tenths to about and inch tops. Eric forecast down pours. We shall see.

    1. And almost all models take the main rain area with the remnants of Michael
      out South of our area, perhaps just clipping the Cape and Islands.

    1. OMG, horrible. And I was thinking Andrew as well where it intensified to
      a Cat 5 just at landfall. Also an extremely powerful, but yet compact storm.

      Any word on the storm surge?

      Too bad Tom is in school, as he is the resident tidal gauge expert.

  11. 8 AM advisory from NHC

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

    …POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE
    FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
    …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
    RAINFALL IMMINENT…

    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…29.0N 86.3W
    ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
    ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

    With Eric’s tweet, that represents another nearly 7 mb drop in pressure.
    Michael could very well be a CAT 5 now. Certainly awfully close.

    1. a few more hrs …. will it go sub 925 mb ….. 920 mb ??????

      worst case scenario, rapid intensification up to landfall !!!!

      1. I think so.
        “Could” make it to official Cat 5 intensity.

        I do believe this is the strongest hurricane ever to hit
        this area of the country.

    2. Air Force Hurricane
      Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall
      this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS
      WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
      hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which
      additional intensification is possible.

    1. I’m not familiar with the area. Looking at a map, there seems to be just two ways off of what looks like a barrier type island. One is Hathaway bridge and I’m reading that is closed. I’m not sure about the other.

      Apalachicola was asked to evacuate. Other local news says officials are disappointed that many residents have chosen not to listen to evac orders.

      1. This is extremely serious! Those that did not evacuate could
        be in big trouble. I sincerely hope that there is no
        loss of life.

  18. Prayers for those being affected by Michael. This one looks worse than previous hurricanes this season, and its rapid intensification prior to landfall surprised some and will have an impact.

    Except for Kimbrel, the Sox showed us something special the last two nights. Yankee stadium is a hard place to win in. The Sox did it twice in a row, and going back to 2004 they’ve won 4 straight road games against the Yankees in the post-season. Girardi must be having a schadenfreude moment. Boone is no Girardi. And Stanton is no J.D. Martinez. The Sox have flaws, but the Yankees’ problems run deeper. If I were Yankee management I’d insist Gary Sanchez play catcher in the Dominican winter league, or in Arizona, and work on his defensive `skills.’ He’s a disgrace behind the plate.

    For the past 2 years Kimbrel has been dealing with a serious health issue concerning his baby daughter. I don’t think that influences his pitching. But, it reminds us of what truly matters in life. It appears his daughter is doing okay now.

    Cooler weather on the way, but my guess is no snow in coastal SNE. Different story up north. Killington often opens by the end of the month. That may happen this year. Jay’s Peak will surely open by the first week of November.

    Great pictures, Mark. I love Pinkham Notch and the Presidential Range.

  20. Remember what homestead, FL looked like after Andrew. That’s what I’m thinking we’re going to see here over a swath that’s 10 to 15 miles wide from the eye wall landfall, eastward. This may extend inland some distance, until the winds start to decline. Unimaginable storm surge to the right of the eye.

      1. Even a quick search of Andrew comes up with one common term – war zone.

        I hope the people in these area got out. But local papers are reporting that many perhaps did not.

  21. On another topic – what a lovely summer day. 82.8 with a 65 DP.

    If only we had not had the driveway sealcoated yesterday. With windows open, that is all I can smell.

    1. Dear heavens…that is absolutely nuts.

      I’ll never understand it. I was just reading in a local paper where many people seem to have decided to stay. They not only risk their lives, but they risk the lives of rescue workers.

    2. Correction, that is Gulf Shores, AL. If it is that bad there on the weaker side of the storm, I cannot imagine Panama City.

      The Panama City cams are going down one after another now.

  24. BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    Extreme Wind Warning
    National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
    115 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

    The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

    * Extreme Wind Warning for…
    Southern Jackson County in the Panhandle of Florida…
    Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida…
    Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida…
    Calhoun County in the Panhandle of Florida…
    Liberty County in Big Bend of Florida…
    Southeastern Washington County in the Panhandle of Florida…

    * Until 415 PM EDT/315 PM CDT/.

    * At 113 PM EDT/1213 PM CDT/, National Weather Service Doppler radar
    indicated extreme winds in excess of 130 mph, associated with the
    eyewall of Hurricane Michael, were continuing to move inland. THIS
    IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
    was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
    shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

  25. I asked on FB but will ask here as well. Does Michael have the ability at its strength and speed to remain a hurricane well inland? If so, is Atlanta in the path of POSSIBLE hurricane force winds?

    1. I think Atlanta is West of the path. My sister in law is SE of Atlanta so wanted to make sure she is listening but it appears she will be ok.

  27. Michael is the third strongest hurricane (by central pressure) to make landfall in the United States, behind only Camille and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. It was strengthening right up until landfall, rare if not unprecedented for that region of the Atlantic. The very last data from the recon plane before landfall could possibly support an upgrade to Category 5 intensity, but more likely a very high end Cat 4. Regardless, you are witnessing history.

  28. Tyndall AFB : NE sustained at 86, gusting to 129 pressure : 27.41 inches !!!!!!

    Appalachicola : S sustained at 58, gusting to 84

    1. Someplace I saw 106 gust at appalachicola – not sure how accurate

      Also heard that 5 mph stronger and it would have reached cat 5

    1. I agree. Wonder what the surge is like, because the eye went just southeast of them. (Panama City)

      Pressure is low enough to raise the ocean on its own, that close to the eye. But, Id think their catastrophic wind has some kind of offshore component.

  32. This on storm chaser FB page

    Landfall confirm: near Mexico Beach,FL : winds of 155; 919mb. Nne at 14 motion. ( Nhc 12:30pm CT/1:30PM ET)

  33. I’m really worried about what kind of storm surge arrived with the eye.

    As that pressure fell the last dozen hours, the mound of ocean under the eye crept higher and higher.

    As that mound of water encountered the shallow depths, it must have risen so high.

    The eye came in perpendicularly to where it made landfall and the winds were increasing as the system b-lined to landfall.

    I wonder if some very small location from the eyewall to 10 miles east or so will weeks from now show a 25 to 30 foot storm surge.

    1. And ….. the way it was intensifying to landfall, it may have made the next 10 miles inland intensifying more. I think that is what Andrew did.

  39. From NBC7 in Panama City…

    WJHG-TV
    40 minutes ago.
    We are located on the edge of the outer part of the eye wall. It is horrible here. I can’t imagine being near Mexico Beach or Tyndall or Callaway.

    WJHG-TV
    30 minutes ago.
    Roof peeling back in studio… water leaking in. We are still all ok.

  41. I’m reading that the brunt of it may be over a non-populated area. There is a huge national forest in that area. It surely will do damage there but I think better than the alternative. I’m praying this is accurate

  42. This is from my “RadarScope” mobile App.
    One time standard version charge of $9.95. (WELL WORTH IT!)

    Available on the Apple APP Store or Google Play.

      1. Nope. Just search for RadarScope in the appropriate
        app store for the mobile device. You already have this app? no?

        I am trying to get Tom to obtain this app. He will be most happy he did. Then he should purchase the upgrade for the cool
        superimposed lightning display.

  44. Tweet from storm chaser Josh Morgerman on Michael
    12:45 pm. Grazing the eye of #Hurricane #MICHAEL in Callaway. One of nastiest, scariest f*cking ‘canes I’ve been in. Lord. 947 mb.
    Ryan Hanrahan’s response to that tweet.
    And Josh has been through a lot. This is saying something.

    1. Thank you, JJ. I’m seeing on FB that some chasers are missing. Maybe we could all say prayers for them as well as the folks in the area.

  46. Tweet from Eric Fisher on Michael
    LANDFALL near Mexico Beach, FL with 155mph winds and pressure of 919mb
    3rd lowest pressure at landfall for a U.S. hurricane on record, lowest since Camille 1969
    Strongest winds for U.S hurricane since Andrew in 1992

    2. Just goes to show how infrequently storms this intense impact the US.

      Places like the Philippines are not so fortunate.

  47. I never remember seeing an extreme wind warning issued prior to a landfalling hurricane. Parts of the Florida panhandle under that warning and now parts of southern GA. This thing will be bring damage to parts of GA, SC, and NC.

  48. WJHG-TV Panama City
    55 minutes ago.
    Just at a loss for words… Major damage out there it looks like and many others are probably significant worse. We’re thinking and praying for all of you…

  49. Unfortunately once again we’ll see examples of the risk of this type of building up of a region very vulnerable to storm surge.

    But you know what? We’re not gonna learn. $ talks too loudly.

    1. Ya but….Does that mean we should not build in any of CA, along any coastline, in tornado alley or anywhere that is susceptible to tornadoes, in New Orleans, in any of TX….I can go on but suspect you would be happy if I stopped. 🙂

      1. You make a point, but I believe there should be some sensible
        reasoning. Why build a few feet from water’s edge knowing full well, that you would likely have property damage with any meaningful storm that hits?

        What will eventually happen is that no insurance company will
        offer insurance, so only the most wealthy could possibly take the chance.

        1. Many are not insured. Along our coast, if you have not raised the home, it is not insured. So many of these folks may well be paying for their own damages. The house beside the one we rent has the ocean running through it last winter. It wasn’t covered. I guess some people can afford it and as nuts as I think it is, it is their right.

          The storm surge was high even into Charleston old town. It is going to happen

          We do have improved building codes…hurricane and earthquake are part of that. But we will also see stronger storms more often. So it is a tough call. But the coast isn’t the only area.

    1. From Meso West, I saw 86, but then this could be a round issue.
      We’ll find out sooner or later. 😀

  51. I see from a Facebook post of a person TK knows well that some storm chasers may be in real trouble down by where the storm made landfall. Hoping for the best possible outcome for them. I feel awful, there was just no expectation that a 919 mb monster was going to arrive. Very, very sad …..

  52. Either from sunshine and warmth today or ocean currents or wind direction, the
    Water temperature at Boston Buoy went up 2 degrees today.

    Currently, the water temperature sits at 64.2 F which is in stark comparison
    to the average of 56.8 F.

    The actual complete departure from average is: +7.44 F

    IF, I have calculated the Standard Deviation correctly as 2.56 degrees F, then
    this departure falls in the 1% or less percentile.

    For example, take the current temp of 64.22 and add the Standard deviation 3 times
    (64.22 + 2.56 + 2.56 + 2.56) we get 64.46 F. A temperature of 64.46 should only
    occur on 0.27 % of days). Since our current is 64.22 the percentage would be a bit
    higher, perhaps 0.5% or at most 1%.

    Here is a screen shot of data and also of the Normal Distribution:

    https://imgur.com/a/8KwImdW

    2. Combo of warm late summer / early fall, ocean currents, and an already warm N Atlantic from the upside down pattern. We probably won’t see it this warm this late for a long time.

  53. If anybody should see that report from Mexico Beach posted in which it shows a 177 mile per hour sustained wind it is very much incorrect.

  54. I may be a bit slow ’round the blog tonight. I’ll be in Attleboro for a while this evening.

  56. Before I go into my rant, I feel bad for all of those who are effected by Hurricane Michael. That area is some of the poorest areas in Florida. People say evacuate but many people there can not afford to leave and temporarily live some where else. There are so many mobile homes down there, many of which that do not meet current codes. Now with this said. So many people think human tech can keep towns and cities safe from the Ocean while destroying the habits around them. There use to be major Swamps in that region, much of which been filled in for mobile homes and businesses. coastal habitats been destroyed in the area, some of the largest salt marshes are along the gulf coast, yet Florida has very little do to the filling in of said marshes. Its such a great idea to take habitats that would protect the land from these types of events, or at least decrease the impacts and destroy them. Building houses in these areas are just stupid. Even if you elevate your house, there is still good chances of the force of the water could take out the poles holding it up, the wind blowing under and going up, etc. Blowing it over. With rising sea levels, and increased storminess will increase erosion, changing the coasts even quicker than usual. Its dumb to think that if you build on something that changes, destruction won’t follow. Even though I love the Ocean, I know to respect, do not build within 100 yards of the coast or its gonna be gone in 15 years.

    1. People who elevate know this. People who live in tornado alley know this. People who live in California know this. Even Kenny chesneys home that had all of the latest and greatest hurricane upgrades was badly damaged by Irma…was it Irma? We cannot win where Mother Nature is involved

      In the case of today…..Some of the land is far from ideal and homes are mobile….because in too many cases people cannot afford more. So where do we draw the line? Does the government start drawing lines where people can and cannot live….and what if they cannot affords better.

      I’m assuming this discussion is acceptable. It is weather related and not political. If not, TK, please let me know

      1. I forgot to add that 100 yards of the ocean is nothing. As I said earlier, Charleston old town has a huge storm surge. Michael is still a cat 2 in SW GA. Hugo did tremendous damage in Charlotte.

  57. Either way that is far from the discussion for tonight and I am guilty of it also. I apologize sincerely.

    There are people who may have lost their lives and certainly many who have lost propery and memories dear to them. There are storm chasers, many of who, chase to help others stay safe, who are lost. I’m going to focus on prayers

  58. Is it me or is michaels pass southeast of New England inched a bit closer today ??

    I’m curious to see if it inches even a bit closer in the 00z model runs.

    I was surprised to see the simulated radars tonight for Friday morning. It showed the heavy rain with Michael getting to Plymouth/marshfield.

  59. Peaking at the 00z spaghetti

    I don’t think I’d be surprised if the rain associated with the storm itself on Friday morning, for a short time, works its way back to Boston and providence.

    Also, I think chances are increasing for a big dump of rain, as in several inches, on most of Cape Cod.

    Finally, will be interested to see the strength of the NW winds Friday afternoon, as michaels remains transition to more of a mid latitude low pressure area that probably will see its pressure lower again. That will be interesting to see how much of a pressure gradient develops in southeast New England.

    1. That would be nice. It is crazy warm out tonight. This night could pass for July in New England. We have the a/c running …..

      1. It felt like summer more than fall. I turned on AC today for a bit. I’m impressed that after your camping in the cold last weekend that you are looking forward to more.

        1. If I controlled the weather, I’d like to see low to mid 60s by day and 40s at night til about Veterans Day weekend. 🙂 🙂

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