Thursday Forecast

80 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)
The back-door front slipped through NH and northeastern MA which sits in the upper 50s to near 60 early this morning but hasn’t made it all the way to the southwest where temps sit in the upper 60s to 70, and it will generally remain like this for a while before that front pushes back to the northeast and the areas damp/cool turn warm/muggy. The foggy/drizzly conditions in the cool air will just be replaced by showers, which are possible anywhere this morning and likely everywhere this afternoon, some of then heavy with even a thunder risk later in the day and in the evening as a stronger cold front pushes in from the northwest, also having picked up some moisture from Hurricane Michael in the process. The remains of that once very powerful storm will be passing south of New England Friday, having lost its tropical characteristics and also become much weaker. It will prolong the rainfall near the South Coast into Friday morning before a drying trend overtakes the region. Much cooler air is on the way for the weekend, but a little wrinkle has appeared in the form of a minor disturbance that will bring cloudiness and the risk of a little rain for a portion of Saturday morning and midday as it moves rapidly west to east. Sunday will be the nicer of the two weekend days. Monday, the weather will head downhill again as the remains of what was once a Pacific tropical system (Sergio) head through the Great Lakes and drag a cold front toward the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with scattered showers morning. Widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms with possible heavy rainfall afternoon and evening. Damp north and east and muggy south and west morning, muggy all areas afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind light NE in northeastern MA and southern NH morning, SW up to 10 MPH elsewhere, then SW 10-20 MPH all areas afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers, some heavy, with a chance of thunderstorms through late evening, then diminishing. Areas of fog. Muggy. Lows 62-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW overnight.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with rain likely South Coast and a chance of rain showers elsewhere, then a clearing trend. Drying. Temperatures generally steady in the 60s cooling into the 50s evening.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain morning-midday. Clearing afternoon. Highs 52-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)
This period will feature mostly dry weather with a possible brief interruption of rain showers around mid period with a reinforcing cold frontal passage. Temperatures generally below seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)
There are signals for some unsettled weather both early and again later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

80 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. This from the NWS….

      A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday Morning to ThursdayNight for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeastern Massachusetts for 1 to 2″ of rainfall in a short period of time and localized higher amounts possible. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday Afternoon to FridayMorning for Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Codfor 2-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts of 3-5″ of rain. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday Afternoon to FridayAfternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for 3-5″ amounts with localized higher amounts of 4-6″. This rainfall could produce urban and poor drainage flooding and some small river and stream flooding..

  2. Thank you, TK. Awesome sky here this am. When the sun breaks out, it has an usual hue – not quite sure what color term to use. Yellowish but not quite. The clouds are fascinating. Clouds always make me think of Marjie (rainshine)

  3. I used to say my favorite season was October 1 to September 30. I am going to have to move that to October 15 to October 14…..and it may need further tweaking. Another lovely summer-like morning in Sutton 😉

  4. It is good to finally see below normal temps for the extended outlook. The fall colors should start to get going now. 🙂

  5. Good morning and thank you TK. Sure feels like the front has pushed through Boston.
    Feels and smells like marine air. 62 at my house when I left and still 62.

    Will check latest from Meso West.

    Looks like the front is through, although not with a great punch. I drew a blue line on this Meso West map to depict approximately where the front currently is.

    https://imgur.com/a/kvuD5kZ

    1. Thank you and good morning, JPD. Am working with some folks in Concord, NH….same feel up there and apparently lots of rain.

  6. From Eric 8 hours ago….Still 72 degrees at 1am…which means the Wednesday AM low of 68F sets a new record for Boston’s warmest low ever recorded so late in the year.

  7. Just heard from a friend in Charleston whose office is on the water (not sure if river or ocean). They don’t have rain but winds are gusting to high 30s.

  10. Wind gusts on obx into the fourtys,perhaps transition process to extratropical system,buoy temps south of NE around 67°.

  11. Thanks TK. Very warm and sticky AM here in CT with temps in the 70’s. Feels like August.

    The pictures coming in from the devastation at Mexico Beach, FL are incredible.
    https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/1050204229346955264

    And this is from Blountsville, FL – 45 miles INLAND:
    https://twitter.com/LeeWSFA/status/1050154424490962944

    I guess not surprising when the eye of a CAT 4 goes over you. But awful nonetheless. Going to take them many years to fully rebuild.

    1. Thank you, Mark. I’m seeing videos of gut wrenching devastation also, both along the area of landfall and inland.

  15. Yesterday I was enthralled(if that is the right word) by watching the Weather Channel and watching the hurricane evolve as it moved towards the coast. I could’t get away from the tv. Well, nothing else to do yesterday and it was all interesting. However, although seeing photos of the eye of the storm(thanks to those who posted here) and seeing the power of the storm, it broke my heart to see all the devastation this storm brought. Thoughts and prayers to all who went through this storm. One thing that amazed me is how the eye managed to keep relatively together well after landfall.

    Vicki – thank you for thinking of me w/your description of the sky this morning. We saw no sun. Just cloudy and ‘though the mornings are supposed to be getting darker, it seemed unusually dark for quite some time. Took a brief walk yesterday (so muggy) and we do have some leaf fall around here and some scattered color in trees. Really looking forward to some long-lasting cold, frosty weather!

    1. Terrifying. I watched start and then moved to 30 minute mark as posters were advising. It drained me just watching.

      1. It sure seems to me that everyone – from residents to chasers to even the mets – were caught off guard by how much Michael strengthened just before coming ashore. I was reading every news source throughout the area and not one met seemed aware. I’m not sure I would have been aware, having done as much reading as I had, if it had not been for Tom’s comments on the pressure.

    2. Oh. My. God. That video is unreal! Especially the second half. If you ever wondered what it is like to be in the eyewall of a Cat 4 hurricane, now you know.

      I find it amazing that they remained so calm for so long, despite driving through downed power lines and having large pieces of debris pummeling their vehicle. They are lucky beyond belief to be alive.

      2. they are professionals, I have honestly followed them for a while, as they have gone through many storms.

  17. Quite a decent slug of rain heading our way. How much will fall is anyone’s guess.
    Eric said 1-3 inches for our area. Looks like the one can happen, but I don’t know
    about the 3.

      2. This is what was expected and I have been mention in my discussion for a few days. The cold front captures some of the lead moisture and wrings it out. We also have enhancement due to the wedge of cool air that snuck down from Maine overnight (nobody had that in the forecast for some reason except SAK, Eric Fisher, and myself, though SAK was the first one to mention it as early as Sunday night). The storm itself does generally get steered out to sea other than clipping the S Coast & Nantucket with its rain shield.

  19. The weather pattern during the last 2 weeks of October may be a preview (at least partially) of the pattern that evolves by mid to late November and carries into early winter. Just tossing that out for now. More later…

    1. I think people are expecting more than what’s actually going to occur. Generally 0.50 to 1.50 most of the region, isolated heavier.

      1. Now that makes sense. I am reacting to the NWS flood watch
        and Eric calling for 1-3 inches. I KNEW there was NO WAY
        we would achieve 3 inches Nor would we approach flood
        status. Your assessment appears spot on as per usual!

        I am getting sick and tired of the watches and warnings
        issued by the NWS, many of which are unfounded and unnecessary. Sorry, in a ranting mood and you know hard
        it is to impress me weatherwise. Nothing is ever enough for me!

  22. Talk about flying under the radar for a long time. Leslie, now a hurricane again, is in her 19th day of existence (since September 23), and has traveled a great distance in the Atlantic without really moving very much at all. She should easily make it to day 22, and is forecast to lose tropical characteristics through day 24, but her position and trajectory at that point may bring her into the Cape Verde “highway”, and even though we are beyond the peak of that part of the season, I would not be entirely surprised if she gained new life yet again and again hangs around out there for a while. She may accomplish very extended Atlantic life – not that easy to do in a basin that small (compared to the Pacific).

      1. Just happens to be a situation where she has enough “favorable” to keep her going and hasn’t been picked up by anything because of a northward-displaced jet stream in that area, so she’s just been bouncing around with subtle shifts in weak steering.

    1. Given the damage reports I’m hearing it may be a good thing it waited.

      Quick question: Did you hear any thunder?

  25. This tweet on that storm with the thunderstorm warning from NWS Boston
    Numerous Trees and wires down in Milford, Bellingam, Mendon, Northbridge, Mass. Looking for any reports and pictures from this area. #mawx

    From Eric Fisher
    The burst of strong wind around 4:40pm produced a pocket of significant wind damage. Possible microburst

    1. Literally blew up after it passed here. With the damage I surely don’t mind missing it. There are power outages in Milford. Uxbridge flickered a few times. My nine year old grand called to tell me she was hoping for an outage. 🙂

  27. Looks like there was no lightning until it reached Cape Cod Bay (and a few in south central CT). The line that blew through southern MA, as far as I can tell, contained zero lightning. No surprise actually. It was very low topped.

      1. Thank you! Yes it looked like a fairly tropical-style low-topped event. We’ve had a lot of those this season because of the types of systems that have come through.

  28. I’m a little caught off guard by how the guidance has shifted markedly to colder in the medium to longer range. We’ve been seeing models over-do East Coast troughs in the mid-range for months. I posted not too long ago about how I didn’t think that was changing and that East Coast ridging would probably dominate the rest of the month with just brief cooler shots. Maybe I’ve ridden the persistence pattern as far as it’ll take me. Is this the time where we actually get a pattern change to bona fide below normal temps? Looking more likely.

    1. I pulled the trigger a bit sooner after riding persistence until about Oct 15. When I did that I figured I’d get screwed over based on past history. Hey, there’s still time. 😛

  29. Downpours continue here in Coventry, Ct. Up to 1.22” on the day and 3.55” for the first 11 days of October.

    1. And now much of the remainder of the month will be fairly dry (though we’ll have to watch 2 or 3 troughs when they near the coast for possible storm development).

  30. Hopefully were talking about possible storm development on the east coast and will get a couple to track to the benchmark or as I like to call it the sweet spot for snow lovers in a couple of months. Hoping this is it for the humidity until summer 2019.

    1. I have an early feeling that if you want a lot of snow this coming winter the place to be will be south of New England and the mountainous Northwest.

        1. Please ignore me. I was being silly. He said south of New England which is below CT and RI ….I think.

  31. From that sounds like winter of 09-10 where the Mid Atlantic got walloped and we missed out on the action here in SNE. Hoping 2-3 coastal storms come up to get us with a good dumping of snow.

    1. I have about 5 to 6 weeks to go to be confident, but so far I would not be placing my betting money in the “above normal” snow category.

  34. as long as we do not have a repeat of 2012 I will be fine. If we have enough cold, the mountains can make snow and maintain what falls.
    I am leaning towards an other average snowfall this winter. But could change. I also think, we might be in a situation that we do not look so much to our south but more to our west 😉

    1. Just not so sure we’re going to have the precip. This has all the earmarks of variable temps / dry, transitioning to cold / dry. Time will tell.

      2. I still think about half of winter will see normal to above normal precip, don’t need a bunch of storms to put us to around normal.

  35. From hurricane.com page… I’d forgotten about this list but thanks to someone on a FB page I admin, I was reminded of it!

    Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.
    Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane
    Earliest Category 3+ hurricane : Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951 (In May/June 1825 there was a major hurricane also, but there is less information available about it due to the records of the time.)
    Earliest hurricane in existence in a calendar year: Hurricane Alice, January 1-6, 80mpg 1955 (and December 31, 1954), formed the previous year. The earliest tropical storm was Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-2006 (see below)
    Latest tropical storm formed: Tropical Storm Zeta, 11am AST, December 30, 2005. Previous, Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954.
    Latest hurricane formed: Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954. The only two cross-season storms on record are Hurricane Alice in 1954-1955 and Tropical Storm Zeta 2005-2006 (See below).
    Latest hurricane in existence from previous year: Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955, January 6, 1955 (see Tropical Storm Zeta, January 6, 2006 for the latest Tropical Storm in existence)
    Strongest (most intense) hurricane: Hurricane Wilma 2005, 882 millibars (mb) (the previous most intense hurricane was Hurricane Gilbert 1988 at 888 mb)
    Strongest land-falling United States Hurricane: Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 160mph 892 mbar
    Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
    Longest Category 5 hurricane: Hurricane Allen, 1980, reached Category 5 status on 3 occasions (Ivan and Isabel did the same, but Allen lasted longer). Hurricane Dog 1950 2.50 days; Hurricane Isabel 2003, Hurricane David 1979, Hurricane Mitch 1998 all 1.75 days.
    Most storms per season: 28 in 2005 season (revised upward by 1 April 2006) (previous: 21 named storms in 1933).
    Fewest storms per season (since 1965): 1983 4 storms; 1965, 1977, 1982, 1986, 6 storms; 1972, 1987, 1992, 1994, 7 storms
    What happens if they run out of names? The Greek alphabet is used: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, eta, theta,iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu xi, omikron, pi, rho, sigma,tau,upsilon,phi, chi, psi, omega.
    When do they start with the following season’s names? January 1 of the year, not June 1st when the Atlantic hurricane season begins or May 15th for the Pacific hurricane season. However storms that overlap from one calendar year into another are not renamed.
    Strongest January hurricane: Hurricane Alice, January 1955, 80 mph winds (peak January 2, 1955) (The naming is a story in itself since it became a tropical storm Dec 30, 1954 but advisories weren’t issued until January 1955, so it was given the name Alice, which made it the second Alice for 1954 – at that time names were re-used each year), December 30, 1954-January 6, 1955. Tropical Storm Zeta December 30, 2005-January 6, 2006. Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978 45 mph winds is the only storm formed in January.
    Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph
    Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.
    Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb
    Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.
    Strongest June hurricane: Hurricane Audrey, June 25-29, 1957 (145mph, 946 mbar) (see also Alma 1966, 130 mph, 970 mbar and Agnes June 14-25, 1972 did a lot of damage, 85mph, 977 mbar)
    Strongest July hurricane: Emily, 2005 (161 mph top sustained winds – earliest recorded category 5 hurricane) (previous record: Dennis (150 mph) 2005; Hurricane #1 (140 mph) in 1926.
    Strongest August hurricane: Allen 1980 899 mbar, 190 mph (see also Katrina, 2005 175 mph sustained winds, 902 mbar; Hurricane Camille, August 1969, 190 mph, 905 mbar; Andrew, August 1992, 175mph, 922 mbar)
    Strongest September hurricane: Gilbert, 185 mph, 888 mbar, (see Rita, 2005 175 mph, 897 mbar; Hurricane Janet, 1955, 175mph 914 mb)
    Strongest October hurricane: Wilma 2005, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.
    Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion. Tied with Michelle in 2001 based on central pressure of 933 mbar, 140 mph wind.
    Strongest December hurricane: 1925 Hurricane, December 4, 1925, (100mph); see Hurricane Epsilon 2005 , 85mph, 979 mbar and Hurricane Nicole of 1998 85mph; see also Hurricane Lili 1984 80mph. Hurricane Epsilon 2005 is the longest lasting December storm.
    Season with most hurricanes: 2005 with 15 Hurricanes (previous record: 12 in 1969)
    Most major hurricanes hitting the U.S.: 4 in 2005 (previous record: three in 2004). Major hurricanes are category 3+.
    Most tornadoes spawned: Hurricane Frances, 2004 (123), Hurricane Ivan 2004 (117), Hurricane Beulah 1967, (115), Hurricane Katrina 2005 (30). Hurricane Andrew also was notable for its tornados in the South Miami area.
    Most Category 5 Hurricanes in one season: 4 in 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) (previous record: two in 1960 and 1961)
    Most Tropical Storms/hurricanes before August 1: 7 in 2005 (previous record: five in 1997)
    Most two-year consecutive total Tropical Storms: 2004-2005, 41 (previous record: 32 most recently in 1995-96)
    Most two-year consecutive total Hurricanes: 2005, 25 (previous record: 21 in 1886-87)
    Most Two-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2004-2005, 13 (ties record in 1950-51)
    Most Two-Year Consecutive Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Seven (previous record: five in 1954-55)
    Most Two-Year Consecutive Florida Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Five (previous record: three in 1949-50)
    Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Storms: 2003,2004,2005, 57 (previous record: 43 most recently in 2002-04)
    Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Hurricanes: 2005, 31 (previous record: 27 in 1886-88)
    Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2003,2004,2005, 16 (ties record in 1949-51 and 1950-52)
    Deadliest U.S. Hurricane since 1928: Katrina, 2005 (at least 1,300).
    2005 had three of the six strongest hurricanes on record: Wilma 882 mb (1st), Rita 897 mb (4th), Katrina 902 mb (6th)
    Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.
    Four hurricanes have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.
    Latest hurricane to strike the U. S.: late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
    Most storm names retired in a single year: 2005, 5 names. Previous record 4 names in 1955, 1995 and, 2004.
    Only Tropical Storm (e.g. it never was a hurricane) name retired: Allison, 2001. It was a huge rain event and did enough damage to be retired.
    Longest July Tropical System (Hurricane or Tropical Storm):
    Earliest far-East Atlantic storm: Hurricane Bertha (July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008) (surpassing 1995’s Bertha which formed 2 days later and several hundred miles to the west)
    Longest lasting July Hurricane/Tropical Storm: Hurricane Bertha, July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008.
    Most landfalls in a particular state, Florida: Tropical Storm Fay, 2008, when it hit the Florida Keys, Southwest Florida (near Naples), Northeast Florida (near Flagler Beach), and the Florida Panhandle (near Apalachicola, Florida).
    Fastest moving hurricane or tropical storm:Now the question here is what are the fastest moving storms? This is important because forward speed can impact both wind velocity and surge, and decrease the flooding from rain. The fastest recorded hurricane was “The Long Island Express” in 1938, a category 3 storm. It was travelling between 60 and 70 miles per hour!

    Pacific records

    Longest lived tropical cyclone: Hurricane John, 31 days, 1994.
    Strongest tropical cyclone: Typhoon Tip in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on 12 October 1979 was measured to have a central pressure of 870 mb and estimated surface sustained winds of 85 m/s (165 kt, 190 mph)
    Largest storm surge: The Bathurst Bay Hurricane, also known as Tropical Cyclone Mahina, struck Bathurst Bay, Australia in 1899. According to (Whittingham 1958) it produced a 13 m (about 42 ft) surge, but other contemporary accounts place the surge at 14.6 m (almost 48 ft)
    East Pacific Longest Category Five status: Paka 1997, 2.5 days; John 1994, Oliaw 1997, Linda 1997 1.75; Guillermo 1997, Ava 1973, 1.00 day.
    West Pacific Longest Category Five status: Nancy 1961 5.50 days; Karen 1962, 4.25 days; Sally 1954, 4.00 days; Dinah 1959, 3.75 days; Nina 1953, 3.50 days.
    Storms that have crossed from the Atlantic to the Pacific or the Pacific to the Atlantic, best records since the mid-1960s:

    Atlantic Hurricane Cesar (July 1996) became Northeast Pacific Hurricane Douglas.
    Atlantic Tropical Storm Bret (August 1993) became Hurricane Greg in the Northeast Pacific.
    Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).
    Atlantic Hurricane Joan (October 1988) became Northeast Pacific Hurricane Miriam.
    Atlantic Hurricane Greta (September 1978) became Northeast Pacific Hurricane Olivia.
    Atlantic Hurricane Fifi (September 1974) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Orlene.
    Atlantic Hurricane Irene (September 1971) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Olivia.
    Atlantic Hurricane Hattie (October-November 1961) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Simone.
    A Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became an Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and made landfall in TX

      1. There is a lot of 2005 in there, but as for the first 20 years itself I was surprise not to find very much at all.

        That list does make some periods of time stand out sharpy though.

Comments are closed.