Friday Forecast

41 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
The post-tropical version of Michael passes just south of New England today and has spread its rain shield across southern CT, RI, and southeastern MA where it will be for a few hours before heading out to sea along with the storm as dry air overtakes the region today. A quick-moving disturbance will bring cloudiness and the threat of a little rain to the region during the first half of Saturday before the remainder of the weekend is dry and cool. The remains of Pacific tropical cyclone Sergio will track through the Great Lakes and drag a cold front this way wit a shower risk Monday before more dry and cool air follows that. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy start with rain south and east of a line from northeastern CT to Boston, moving out from west to east during midday. Clearing west to east this afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 15-35 MPH South Coast shifting to N then NW. Wind lighter N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 42-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain morning-midday. Clearing afternoon. Highs 52-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 36-42 except 43-49 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows from the lower to middle 50s. Highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)
Quick moving front may produce a rain shower around October 18 otherwise mainly dry weather and below normal temperatures this period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)
Watching for 1 or 2 low pressure systems to impact the region with potential wet weather. May be the type of pattern where a few areas see their first snowflakes as well. Temperatures mostly below normal.

41 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Still raining pretty good ….

    My wife had knee replacement surgery yesterday. All went well !

    Being in a hospital, you don’t hear much, even if its pouring.

    But, we both heard whatever that line of wind and brief torrential rain was yesterday sometime in the 5 o’clock hour. That was interesting …….

    2. Wow! Happy that she is doing well. So young for such surgery.
      I hope she has a rapid recovery and is up and about very soon.

      1. Thank you both !

        Yes, one of their younger patients.

        This knee has always been arthritic and in the recent years, had become bone on bone. The Doctor told me yesterday that the X-ray and MRI didn’t do justice how bad a condition the knee was in.

  4. Thanks, TK, and Good Morning!
    My AccuRite gauge was at 1.88″ when I left for work at around 6:30.
    I am sure the total is more than 2.00″ now.
    Wishing the best for Mrs. Tom, too.

    Exciting sports weekend for Boston fans. May break the TV remote switching from the Red Sox to the Patriots and back Sunday night!

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Total rain yesterday was 0.75 inch at my house. Fits nicely in TK’s 0.5 to 1.5 inch
    range.

    This morning’s total is a mere 0.08 inches as we barely got fringed by the remains
    of Michael.

    Very sharp cut off to the rain.

    https://imgur.com/a/C9F8C1T

  6. Judah:

    GFS predicting classic positive Pacifc-North-America (PNA) pattern with deep Aleutian Low, western ridge and eastern trough across North America will likely lead to temperature pattern of warm western US and #cold eastern US persisting into early November.

  7. 1.06 inches of rain in Plymouth, MA last 4 hrs.

    Has to be the same here. It continues to pour and be quite dark.

    Like a winter storm, that furthest northwest band, even near the sharp cutoff, has been intense.

  10. Thanks TK for the below normal temps at last! Time to put away the short sleeves for the warm season? 😉

    Also, color SHOULD now get going in the coming days.

  13. 63 with 48 DP and wind gusting to mid teens and above. Brilliant blue sky with a low layer of white clouds.

    Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

  14. Because its been the warm season so long, I need a refresher on what cold 850 mb temps equate to for surface temps, assuming decent mixing, etc.

    I see at hr 144 on the 12z EURO, 850 mb temps of around -8C. Does that equate to highs in the 40s ????

    1. Here is the “rough” approximation.

      Take the 850 mb temp F and add 27.5 F ( This is based on the dry
      adiabatic heating of 5.5 F per 1,000 feet. Moist air is different, only
      3F per 1,00 feet) Unsaturated or dry air changes temperature at an average rate 5.5°F (3.05°C) per 1,000 feet (304 m). Saturated air—defined as air at 100% relative humidity—changes temperature by an average of 3°F (1.66°C) per 1,000 feet (304 m).

      For example

      32F at 850mb would be approximately 57.5 at surface
      0F at 850 would be 27.5 surface
      -20F at 850 would be 7.5 surface

      Give or take based on the parameters you listed.

  15. Thank you, TK.

    Gray continues to dominate. Blue makes an occasional cameo appearance. I haven’t seen it this consistently gray in October in a very long time. Tomorrow more gray. Sunday a brief blue interlude. Then back to gray on Monday. The gray sky does accentuate the foliage, but it’s also a downer. Remember last October. Now that was a treat.

    2. The blue should be well in control by now, as noted in the forecast above (though differently worded). And tomorrow will not be gray wall to wall. We clear in the afternoon even though NWS doesn’t indicate that. Monday may also be decent for part of the day depending on the details of that system. A lot of blue (and passing clouds) middle of next week.

  18. Did notice the blue this afternoon. Thanks for the heads-up, Vicki, TK, and JP Dave. It was a beautiful couple of hours.

  19. There has not been that many good movies for a while but Marvel’s Venom was good for anyone that likes comic book based movies.

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