Saturday Forecast

96 Comments

8:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)
A disturbance moving rapidly west to east across the region this morning and midday with cover the area with a canopy of cloudiness and also produce some periodic rain, but this will move out in quick fashion leaving behind only the risk of an isolated instability shower popping up in a few locations as colder air arrives aloft during the afternoon. This sets up a chilly Saturday night. Can’t rule out patchy frost over interior low elevations although with recent warmth, the ground may be just too warm to support much in the way of it. High pressure dominates, its center passing south of the region, with plenty of sun and a slightly milder afternoon after a cold start Sunday. Things are moving along quickly and the low pressure area that was once Sergio, a Pacific tropical system, will pass northwest of New England late Monday dragging a rain shower-producing cold front through the region. A dry and cool northwesterly air flow follows this front for Tuesday, with a second cold front approaching by later Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain morning-midday. Sun and passing clouds with a risk of an isolated rain shower early through mid afternoon. Complete clearing late-day. Highs 52-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 36-42 except 43-49 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Rain showers arriving west to east late-day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle to upper 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the middle to upper 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)
Breezy/dry/chilly October 18 with a delivery of Canadian air. Westerly flow, dry and a little milder October 19. Weekend of October 20-21 starts milder then turns breezy/chilly again as a cold front bisects it but probably produces little or no precipitation in the process. Fair, slight moderation in temperature end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)
A wet weather threat possible around October 24-25 otherwise generally dry early and late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

96 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    It is raining lightly here, but it hasn’t tripped the rain gauge yet.
    It needs 0.01 inch to trip.

    1. I’ll give you 0.06 to 0.10 total for this. The only chance you go above 0.10 is if an instability shower happens to go directly over you early this afternoon.

  3. Thank you, TK

    Light rain here and barely tripped rain gauge at 0.03. Waters farm day in Sutton and I’m told it is not unusual for it to rain. Early in week it appeared it might not. 🙁

    1. 2 years in a row (I think 2014 and 2015) it did this on a Saturday in October with similar timing. Both times I had plans to go to Six Flags and it was dry by the time we got there. 🙂

      1. They actually changed the weekend two years ago because the weekend they were having it seemed to have more rain than not. That didn’t work our very well

  4. There is a narrow strip of moderate rain just to the west of 128. I assume this reaches Boston shortly?

    1. On them now but morphing a bit. The band in northeastern CT may clip them as well if it holds together as is.

    1. Hi MassBay. Love seeing your name along the side when whw loads

      Have you been up to some fun trips around New England or elsewhere?

  10. There was a report of “snow” in parts of Dorchester yesterday. A very early arrival of winter to say the least. 😉

        1. Yes. The snow on snow the ground looked like the real deal. If it wasn’t for the season you would never know the difference. Amazing what Hollywood can do with special effects these days.

  11. Music morning. Alexa is hooked to my speakers. I asked her to play 60s music. I tend to prefer earlier 60s but the selection has been great. From the doors long version of light my fire to Gracie slick and Janice and Jimi. And now Dylan’s lay lady lay which I haven’t heard in ages. With music blaring through the house I managed to get all the cleaning done and chat with a great friend on FB. Who says a grey morning can’t be fun 🙂

    Thank you for the short commercial break. Now back to our regularly scheduled weather discussion.

    1. Music quiz. Ok so the commercial is lasting longer than planned. No looking it up

      What song was on flip side of beach boys wouldn’t it be nice 45

      I’m a believer playing now so off to,dance with my mop 🙂

  12. Currently thinking anaolog year of 03/04 and a mix of both the CFS and euro monthlies. Even if we have below normal precip, does not mean below normal snowfall.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Great music, Vicki.

    I do feel at home in this weather, that is, in my adopted country (my second homeland) of the Netherlands. This is the kind of October I became accustomed to, year in and year out.

    1. I’m wearing my turtleneck. Tomorrow I might add a scarf to my repertoire. One thing I notice here in the U.S. is that scarves are not popular, unless it’s really cold. In the Netherlands and throughout Europe scarves are worn from October through April. I carry on that tradition, as I hate to have a cold neck.

      1. I wear scarfs when its windy and cold. If its in the 30s and 40s thats sweatshirt weather for me unless its really windy 🙂

  15. Vicki, I am pretty sure the answer to your Beach Boys question is that the single was kind of a double-A-side with “God Only Knows”, lead vocal by the angelic voice of Carl Wilson, on the flip side. I am not sure why that was the case, however.

    1. You are correct. And that doesn’t surprise me. They were concerned about the word God in the title although their intent was to be any God. Well done, TK!

      In other countries the A and B side were reversed. So your double A makes sense.

  17. o.14 at my house so far. Still raining lightly.

    on another note, good think Mr. Puddle is not pitching tonight. His fingers would go numb.

    1. Makes sense. It was cold enough for snow at mid levels. Not too unusual by mid October in a cooler air mass. 🙂

  23. On Twitter Question for Barry Burbank
    is this going to be another one of those cold falls with an October snow like in 2011? That year we got next to no snow the rest of the winter

    Barry Burbank response
    No… Leaning To Colder Than Average Rest Of The Fall With Above Average Seasonal Snowfall!

      2. To be fair, he said he was leaning that way. He, very much like myself does not produce a confident winter forecast (or at least as confident as we’re going to get) until at least mid November.

        His winter forecasts have been very good 3 out of the last 4 years.

    2. It’s happened many times over the course of observed history.

      It’s been declared post-tropical before landfall.

    1. Nice Kill those mosquitoes.

      I’m loving the deck heater but ordered a padded folding stadium seat because the deck chair seat gets cold. I’m all set for nights on the deck.

      1. I saw exacly ONE mosquito the entire season from Spring to now.
        And it was opening the screen door to our front door of all places.
        Didn’t even see one fishing, where I should have. I think they do not like me.

        1. The mosquitoe was opening your front door? One that strong is enough for one season 😉 😉

          Seriously though we have only seemed to,have them after dark when I want to sit out and can’t see them

    1. There were some incredibly dark, thick clouds to my west when I was driving home a bit ago. Maybe that’s what eventually reached you

    2. I had isolated showers in the forecast for the afternoon. You experienced one of them. There was a bit of instability left behind in the form of much colder air aloft and the isolated showers were triggered by the return of the sun.

  29. Did not mean to be harsh about BBs twitter comments but I can’t recall the last winter he hasn’t predicted above normal snowfall. And yes, he has been correct more times than not. We haven’t had too many below normal winters in recent years.

    2. Mark…if I may. You are one of the least harsh folks here. I confess to chuckling at your comment …it is a tongue in cheek kind of day

    3. Understood. 🙂 Just wanted to make sure I noted how the last few years have gone. He has done better than I have overall. He went for more snow than I did 2 times and was right both of them.

  30. I can only recall two winters this decade where we had below normal snowfall. 2011-2012 winter and the 2015-2016 winter.

  31. TK – Can you respond to my question to you above from 2:36 pm? It was regarding melted snow from above. Thanks.

    1. My response to that question is:

      Well, it would have depended on the magnitude of that cold, but yes it could have snowed down to the surface if the conditions had been right. We’ve had flakes this early, just rarely.

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