Sunday Forecast

56 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Quick update here, basically moving yesterday’s forecast forward with a few tweaks. High pressure slips south of the region today. Sunshine will be about today but it will be filtered by high cloudiness as some warmer air arrives above us. Low pressure (former Sergio), tracks north of New England late Monday, pushing a warm from through first, then a cold front through in the evening, with a couple rounds of showers, one with each front. A dry and chilly northwesterly air flow follows this Tuesday through midweek, reinforced by a second cold front passing by late Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 56-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple episodes of rain showers. Highs 58-65. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 44-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 53-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the middle to upper 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Dry with a cold start and milder finish to October 19. Weekend of October 20-21 starts milder then turns breezy/chilly again as a cold front bisects it but probably produces little or no precipitation in the process. Fair, slight moderation in temperature late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)
A wet weather threat possible around October 24-25 followed by mostly dry weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

56 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    According to Barry, cool shots from Canada for the next several weeks.

    Brief humidity for tomorrow as well. I “guess” I can handle it by now. 😉

    1. Had we been cool for a week before this, that would have been a heavy frost. The first 1 or 2 mornings like this after a warm pattern we will see the ground just too warm to really allow that freezing to take place on the grass blades.

    1. It was actually cooler there than I thought it would be. It was cooler everywhere than I had forecast.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Surveying the guidance and the overall state of things this morning, we are definitely into a very new weather pattern. Much cooler for us. Ridge West, trough East. I think this also means an above normal probability for an early season winter weather event sometime before the end of the month in the Northeast. It does look like this is going to want to be more of a cool and dry pattern than a stormy one. TK has alluded to this and mentioned the coming period as a possible analog for the prevailing winter pattern, and I agree with that as a possibility. But with the upper level pattern that looks to be setting up, you do run the risk of surprises.

    I can’t recall the last time we saw a ~10 day period that averaged below normal temperatures like we may see by the end of the month.

    1. Lovely. Although we are still 75 percent green, I’ve decided Sutton doesn’t have the right trees for the brilliant ranges in color

  7. Thanks TK
    TV remotes will be getting a workout tonight going back and forth between the Red Sox and Patriots. I am not a fan of either team but I will be watching those games tonight.

      1. We’ll be switching to the Sox game during the FREQUENT
        commercial breaks during the Pats game. That is if Mr. Puddles
        doesn’t give the game up in the 1st or 2nd inning.

        What a disappointing game last night as the Sox bull pen
        IMPLODED!! Gee, there’s surprise since they don’t have
        a bull pen, just a bunch of JAG arms.

        So what is up with SALE? No velocity!
        Is his shoulder more damaged than anyone is letting
        on?

        No Sale, kiss the run good-bye.

  8. For movie interests…

    My wife and I saw “A Star Is Born” last night with Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga.
    Cooper was excellent (his singing voice was not that great), and Lady Gaga, although her acting was sub-par, her voice was Other Worldly! Off the charts to say the least. She blew the roof off of the theater.

    This film is well worth seeing just to see Lady Gaga perform!! I couldn’t believe
    her voice! Awe inspiring!

    1. My kids were discussing it the other day and want to see it. Thanks OS. I’ll pass the information. I’ll add to my list and wait till it’s on demand.

  9. I see reports on FB of snow at killington. We went to Stowe every years during the Nov 11 holiday. I’d say two,thirds or more of the time we had to have the driveway plowed to be able to get up to the house.

    1. Hope that downward trend continues into the upcoming winter to enhance snow opportunities for the coastline when the wind isn’t quite right.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    Beautiful fall day.

    Nunez and not throwing strikes, that’s what cost the Red Sox the game. Nunez has been horrible at 3rd throughout the playoffs. He should have fielded the hot shot grounder that led to 2 runs, and he definitely should have fielded the double-play ball. He doesn’t offer much offense, either. Devers should be the everyday 3rd baseman, in spite of his defensive deficiencies. The Sox pitchers looked like the Orioles’ staff yesterday. Bad teams walk 9 guys and hit 3 in one game, not good teams. The Sox are good and have zero excuses for crappy pitching like that.

    The Sox will even up the series, however. And the Patriots will put the latest fad QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in their place. When will NFL analysts stop proclaiming QBs “great” after 5 games? It’s really irritating, and they do it all the time, mostly with QBs that aren’t destined for Canton, Ohio. Maybe Mahomes is HoF worthy. But, let’s judge that after several years of work, not 5 games.

    1. I am not so sure, KC is not just Mahomes, they have a really good offense, their defense is beaten up so the patriots will be able to target that, but not sure if our backfield is up to the task especially since Eric Rowe might see the field, who will let big plays happen. I wish Jackson and Jason stays out there and Rowe stays on the bench but doubtful as Bill seems to like him. Rowe has a few moments but he is terrible. It could either be a shoot out or a low scoring game.

      1. Thanks Dave
        The subject interests me on a number of levels. I grew up swimming and sailing in the inner harbor. I also love following the conversation on this blog concerning snow likelihood and the influence of water temps on same.

  19. Not sure if anyone noticed how brilliant the stars were last night. They were low enough that I felt as if I could reach out the window and touch them.

        1. She’s good. As expected, the pain after this type of surgery is significant and that’s the biggest thing we are trying to manage.

          My wife never stops for a second, so that’s another mental hurdle she is having to deal with, this literally has you stopped in your tracks for a while and she is coming to that realization.

    2. what a sky!

      Where would I find a deck heater? I ‘d like to learn about them– can you sit out in winter?

      1. I got it on amazon for about $130. And I had to turn it down today because I got hot.

        I’ll send you an email. I plan to sit out all winter

  21. Gotta keep an eye on tomorrow night. Dynamically impressive system moving through. Most of the hi-res guidance showing a few hundred joules CAPE with tons of low level shear. A little surprised NWS hasn’t put in the seemingly standard “low risk for a brief spin-up” language that they normally use with a situation like this. It’s always a low probability, but seen it happen too many times to ignore. Best chance looks to be CT, RI, and southeast MA. That threat aside, the wind in general will get gusty as this system moves through, both before and after the cold frontal passage.

    1. I agree. They’ll mention the spin-up by tomorrow morning’s early AM discussion I’m sure. 😉 I was contemplating adding thunderstorms to the forecast but almost think this could all occur without thunder, just potent showers & gusty winds. Who knows, now maybe that I said that, someone will get a lightning show too. 😛

  22. SREF picking up on that slight tornado risk tomorrow night for eastern CT RI and south shore Cape and Islands.

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