Tuesday Forecast

85 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)
A new weather pattern has arrived and this one will feature frequent shots of chilly air. A cold front moved through last night with some fanfare in the form of downpours and gusty winds, which lasted for several hours after the downpours, but will settle down during the day. Another cold front will charge across the region Wednesday evening and introduce air more seasonable for late November or early December for Thursday. A temperature moderation will follow this but the next wave of chilly air will be approaching during Saturday which may end up a little unsettled with a rain shower threat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, gradually diminishing during the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 54-63. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible early. Lows 34-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
FRIDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)
A windy, chilly October 21 behind a cold front. Fair with moderating temperatures October 22. An early rain shower threat then breezy and cooler October 23 as another front passes. This front may settle just south of the region with a low pressure area on it so will have to watch for nearby unsettled weather at the end of the period in case it ends up further north.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)
Fair and generally seasonable to start the period. There have been signals on some guidance for a possible East Coast storm late in this period but cannot say with any confidence whether or not this will occur. Something to monitor going forward.

85 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Nice squall came through in the middle of the night, perhaps around 1pm ??

    I’m pretty sure we made it all the way to 70F prior to cold front passage.

  4. Good morning.

    And what a beautiful morning it is! Breathtaking! A 10 in my book.

    Re: down pours overnight.
    BIG WOOF! a whopping 0.05 inch at my house and as for the wind? Big deal nothing in my book.

    Go Sox!

    1. Mr. Hadi, so nice to see you drop in.

      And it is beginning to be that time of year, unfortunately, a little
      early for snow around these parts.

      Current Boston Buoy Temperature:

      59.4 F

      To me, that is outrageous. Average is: 55.4

      Yup +4 Degree departure from Average.

      We’re going to have to go some to get that water temperature down to
      where we’d be in business. Frequent cool shots as described above will
      certainly help in this regard.

      Until then, hope for some system that stalls when there is still precip
      and the winds are Northerly. 😀

    2. Hi Hadi – ALWAYS nice to see you here!!!

      And JPD – unfortunately??? Please bite your tongue…..but not so hard it hurts 😉

          1. Yes, so what? I don’t get it.

            I like it to snow whenever. I don’t care if
            it is early season. 😀 😀 😀

  10. One of my students just told me this and I was totally unaware that the first pitch of Game 3 between the Sox and the ‘Stros is 5:09 this afternoon. Thought I’d pass that along in case you didn’t know!

            1. Not I. I’m not even home by then.
              What a sucky time to start such an important game! Just my humble opinion.
              😀

  11. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    I hate to say this but this is a good pattern for an early season snow. Watch the end of this month or early November for something wintry.

  12. Halloween was cancelled after that October Nor’easter on the 29th back in 2011 with a storm that produced the biggest power outage in CT history.

    2. We had Halloween in framingham even with most of the town out of power. It was a warm night so many sat out with a fire going to give out candy

  13. I love the snow but I want to enjoy fall with those cool crisp days and great display of fall colors. When the leaves are off the trees and all the raking is done bring on the snow.

  14. to be honest, I am not entirely sure we here in Eastern New England will have any measureable snow until some point in November. Interior higher terrain sure.

      1. Pattern has most definitely changed. And so yes it does get interesting, especially in the interior. It’s almost a lock at this point that there will be at least some skiing at Killington the last week of October, first week of November. The series of cold fronts that have moved through and are projected to the coming 2 to 3 weeks will bring heavy snow showers to the mountains, in addition to the potential for snow from several coastal lows.

    1. Totally agree. A day like this is stupendously nice in my book. Add the fall colors and light. Magical.

  16. Thank you, TK.

    Agree with you that set-up this year is very different from 2011. It’s also different from 1995. I recall that autumn being very chilly at times, with snow in the interior in late October and early November. I also remember it being cold and windy in Boston the first week or 10 days of November. Later it moderated, only to return with a vengeance with one of the most sustained snow blasts these parts have seen from around the 15th of December through the 10th of January 1996.

    1. Fall 1992 was the same as was snow in early December. Storm was right around St Lucia. It was the first storm where kids had missed more than one day…other than 78 of course. They missed 3

      1. Those were some of the last winter jacket cold Halloween’s. Early November 1992 was darn near as cold as mid winter.

  17. Lawn care individual told me today they have had to move their clover treatment out eveveey year because clover is growing so late. And we remain mostly green. I’m convinced Sutton trees are on strike

      1. That is interesting. There is a good amount of color mixed in with green in Sterling, but a ton of leaf drop on top of that.

        1. I do see leaf drop on the road but with the exception of a tree here and there nothing here. The asters my son planted on the hill last year just bloomed.

      1. If we didn’t change the time as early as we do now it would have been later than March 10. It goes from about 5:42 March 9 to 6:43 March 10 as we flip the clocks forward an hour.

  25. For those interested, DTN, which is a private weather consulting firm, has issued their 2018-2019 Winter Forecast. This is a 40 min taped webinar from Oct 3 and can be downloaded here:

    https://twitter.com/DTNweatherIntel/status/1047569250070794240

    It is a pretty good presentation – they discuss ENSO, sea surface temps, analog years, long range model output, and then finish with their winter forecast and then take questions. If you want to cut to the chase, their winter forecast is from roughly 30-38 min in the video.

    Some of the highlights:
    -above normal sea surface temps in both the Pacific and Atlantic
    -weak, central Pacific based El Nino
    -‘polar vortex’ returns with much of the eastern 2/3 of the country cold in Jan and Feb, possibly lingering well into March
    -main jet stream and storm track across the deep south
    -more mixed precip events across the deep south
    -coastal storms more likely on the eastern seaboard this year with the threat extending north into SNE. Some potentially strong with the contrast of the warmer SSTs and cold air mass over the eastern US.

    A lot of the same things that many have been saying thus far. It seems like this impending pattern is easier to predict outcomes for other parts of the country but impacts on the northeast are a bit of a wild card. Whether or not these southeast storms make the turn up the coast vs. pummeling the mid Atlantic a la 2009-2010 could be the difference between a well below or well above normal winter here.

    2. DTN is the descendant of the private company I started working for in 1988 until well into the first decade of the 2000s. 🙂

      1. Nice. I got this from a co-worker, who is an electrical/utility engineer and receives their emails. I thought it was a good discussion and without the hype!

        1. I’m seeing JBJ all over FB. I think it is something I should know about. Perhaps Red Sox? I’ll have to finish NCIS quickly to see

          1. JBJ is perhaps the best defensive center fielder I’ve ever seen. And, I’ve been lucky to see some great ones in Boston, including Fred Lynn and Darren Lewis. Jackie Bradley Junior is not considered a potent offensive threat. But, I’ve never considered this criticism of him particularly fair. He’s streaky and he’s not a great hitter. But, he has legitimate power and is not afraid of the moment. Nor can he be considered a light hitter.

            I’m ecstatic they won tonight. And what makes it more satisfying is they pummeled Osuna, a pitcher and human being I have zero respect for.

  27. GFS ensemble runs
    Inside runner 2
    Over us 4
    To the east. 3
    one area west one area south 4
    nothing or to far away to give us anything 7
    GEFS shows it traveling over great lakes or over us/east.

  28. For your reading pleasure …

    I went back to October 2011 and read the buildup. I could feel the anticipation and excitement just reading

    Some nitwit kept hoping for power to be out…..no idea who that was. But other folks also seemed excited ….

    And retrac….please start posting again 🙁

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