Thursday Forecast

66 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)
A short, sharp, shot of air more typical of late November than mid October today. This was introduced by a band of showers late Wednesday, along with some strong and gusty winds, and a second round of gusty winds with isolated rain and snow showers in a few locations overnight. But today will be bright and very chilly. But a quick moderation will follow after a cold start to Friday, and this milder air will hang around into Saturday before another cold front charges across the region and introduces another shot of chilly air for Sunday into Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-35, coldest interior areas, least cold urban centers and immediate shore. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 50s to middle 60s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain and snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)
Cold front passes October 23 with a new shot of cool air. Front may hang up just to the south and allow low pressure to move along it south of the region with an unsettled weather threat for a portion of October 24-25 before high pressure moves in with fair weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
Guidance signals of a storm are consistent on models for late October but inconsistent on timing. Will eye this period and focus on October 29-30 at this time.

66 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  6. Thanks TK. Great win last night! Ridiculous time for a game to start and end for a team that is on the East Coast.

    2. Cold this morning had a bit more bite to it due to the wind, but still nice.
      Low at my house in JP was 36, coldest of the season so far. Previous low
      was 37 a couple of times.

        1. Looks well placed to me. I’m waiting for a conference call to begin so had coffee on the deck. The wind was nippy but the heater helped. It’s a beautiful morning.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Noting that the Euro has totally and completely LOST the event for 10/24-10/25.
    Oh well.

    I hear Price is starting tonight*(!@*#!*(@^#&*(!^@&*(#^!&@^#&!*^@#&
    Why not Rodriguez???? I am baffled. I Guess they want a game 6 in Boston.

    re: Fan interference
    Some radio hosts today were saying Houston got robbed. I disagree. I just
    looked at it again in slo mo. It WAS interference in my book. Have a look:

    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-vs-astros-controversial-fan-interference-plays-huge-role-in-first-inning-of-game-4/

    2. There is no doubt that the fan came in contact with both the ball and the glove. I think that the controversy swirls around determining if he reached onto the field of play. The rule states:
      But no interference is called if a spectator comes in contact with a batted or thrown ball without reaching onto the field of play — even if a fielder might have caught the ball had the spectator not been there.

      Looking at Mookie’s position and the angle of his arm, I think that the call was correct and that the fan did reach over the wall.

  8. Re-positioned comment….

    Cold this morning had a bit more bite to it due to the wind, but still nice.
    Low at my house in JP was 36, coldest of the season so far. Previous low
    was 37 a couple of times.

  10. JPD. I took this screen shot. I’m reading riduculouz comments such as fans are not required to sit in their seats. There was more than one pair of hands reaching and this sure looks like interference to me. I am a fair weather fan …if that. I don’t believe I have any bias, and this sure looks like interference

    https://imgur.com/a/1YqPYEH

    1. I agree . I don’t care what side of the ball it was on it was clearly interfering with the play no question about it . I watched that play 10 times. I love this new manager & the team plays there heart out .

      1. Even if the hands of the fans were not close, which they are, the simple act of multiple people reaching both hands quickly toward a the level of a person’s head while that person was literally launched into air will absolutely distract that person.

        I’m not a fan of whiners so when all else fails….remember the words of the greatest….never argue with a umpire.

          1. According to Ted, the ump had the final word and arguing was not only a waste of time but took a batter’s mind off of where his focus should be.

            1. Oh, I agree. Ted was 100% correct.
              I was just joking around.

              Btw, when a player KNOWS they got hosed, it takes an awful lot of intestinal fortitude to refrain from bitching.

  11. I have to say, that was a tough call. when looking it seems like it was a mix of closing the glove to early and the fans. Just my take on it. My cousin has had it done to him when he was in high school several times.

  13. The Euro hasn’t really lost the potential event for the middle of next week. It’s just having issues with placement.

    Still think if there is a “main” event it’s sometime in the Oct 28 (late) to Oct 30 (early) window.

    1. I was just about to post that the Euro has a sizeable system sitting
      down the coast on the 28th perches to possibly come up here.
      850 and 925 mb temperatures look interesting. Too early for me to be
      posting maps at this point.

        1. Each of the last several runs have been pretty much different so as far as details go… eh. There is a way to go before these figure it out.

  14. EURO shows storm system late next week . this is the ensemble break down
    EURO Operational . Sends storm south of the region.
    east 6
    Over us 15
    west. 16

    1. Odds favor west regardless of which day because of a stretching and retrogression of features with a pseudo-block in place.

        1. This is not likely representative of a winter pattern. It would be representative of a transitional pattern.

          1. I do not think it would be a represenation of the winter pattern, If anything storms will be south of us.

            1. This is also the first time in quite a while that I don’t really agree with NOAA’s outlook for winter.

  15. east 8
    over us 21
    west 19
    Sorry this was the total number of ensembles that had a storm east, over us or west of us next week. many of the ones that are over us are transitioning energy to a low from well west of us to one thats basically over us or slightly west.

  16. CFS & ECMWF monthlies are currently in agreement about (consensus) near to below normal temps Nov-Dec and below normal temps Jan-Mar. The models are in slightly less agreement on precip with the ECMWF the wetter of the 2 but still leaning drier overall. CFS is much drier. For an early seasonal idea I like a blend of these 2 long range products.

  18. Sitting at 45 here in JP with dp of
    21. If the winds go light like forecast,
    then I see no reason why we don’t hit the 20s overnight. Can’t say the same for Logan.
    I give them 32 to 35.

    1. Their temps continue to read too high. Thankfully I hope to get to talk to someone about this in 2 days, in person.

  21. A note on NOAA/CPC seasonal forecasts: They release new seasonal forecasts around this time every month, but only one of these gets featured on the CPC homepage in the “three-month outlook” section. In fact, there are three month outlooks going all the way out to Nov-Dec-Jan of next year.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

    If you look through them, you’ll notice one thing stands out in the temperature forecasts: red dominates blue. Always. In fact, I clicked through every one of the current three month outlooks, and did not see a speck of blue. Why? Because the forecasters who make these maps are savvy. They understand statistics, and that’s how their forecasts are verified. All they’re giving is the probability of above or below normal temperatures. It’s not a deterministic forecast, it is probabilistic. Statistically, in today’s climate, it is far more likely for a three month period to average above the 30-year normal versus below it. What the CPC is doing is essentially a “persistence” forecast on climatic time scales. Is that cheating? I don’t know… why not play the odds that are in your favor? You’ll be right more often than not. Then again, surely some areas of the CONUS will come in below normal for some three month stretch in the next year, and their forecasts will have missed that. Of course, they modify the forecasts to match spatial patterns favored by the natural indicators. For instance, this winter they are going for an El Nino-ish look, which would normally mean cooler weather in the Southeast. But they aren’t confident enough to add any blue shading right now. Only the ever so descriptive “equal chances.”

    1. Catching up on my social media for the day, it looks like Eric Fisher and maybe some others were actually talking about this earlier, basically saying the same thing I’m saying here. It’s an interesting matter for discussion.

    2. Absolutely fascinating. I admit to having to read this in conjunction with your link several more times before I truly understand. But I do understand enough to be fascinated. Thank you

    3. They actually hinted at this in their own discussion. I’m still not a total fan of how they do it, especially in the “shorter term” going out a few months. I can understand it a bit more going out toward 6 months to a year.

    4. For example, a very large portion of the western US was below normal for a good portion of the early autumn but they did not forecast this correctly if you verify their maps.

    1. Good article Vicki. Wish that Keith-Hingham was still here, would ask him about this phenomenon of distant sounds being unusually loud and clear. An excerpt from your 2nd link:

      “But what does this have to do with sound?

      Well, it turns out that inversions can bend or refract sounds down toward the surface. Sounds that would normally radiate away above your are bent down to the surface (see schematic below). This occurs because the speed of sound depends on temperature: sound moves faster when it warms. As a result of the bending of sound waves, you can hear sounds from further away more clearly when a low-level inversion is around.”

      On certain nights we can hear the sound of stones rolling up and down a cobble beach like it’s just down the street. But it’s 3/4 to a mile away. And sometimes (not very often) a distant foghorn. Love both those sounds.

      1. I agree with your wistfulness

        Stones rolling is a huge surprise and fascinating. I just sigh at hearing the sound of a fog horn. Wow

        I do not typically notice the sound of planes overhead here. Tonight they could have been on the deck. Not as fanciful as stones and foghorns but I like to imagine where they are going. (Psstt. Don’t tell anyone I have an app that would tell me but that isn’t much fun).

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