Tuesday Forecast

95 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)
Low pressure will cross the region today with unsettled weather, and behind it another batch of autumn chill will arrive for midweek. High pressure maintains control Friday which will be cool but tranquil. Then things change as the first in what appears will be two storm systems moves into the region Saturday. There are still a lot of details to work out with this system, but the earlier idea of it passing largely offshore is abandoned. I think it will arrive, and perhaps fast enough with enough cold air in place to even start as frozen precipitation in some interior locations, but odds very much favor the vast majority of this system being a rain and wind maker. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers midday and afternoon. Slight chance of thunder in a few heavier showers. Highs 45-53. Wind light SE increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts late day.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Early rain showers ending. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing late.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving, may start as sleet/snow interior briefly. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
We’ll be in the middle of a stormy period October 28 probably between the first system and a second system with some rain showers and breezy conditions, then the second of the expected two systems comes through on October 29 with rain, but rain or snow possible over the interior if precipitation is heavy enough with just enough cold air around – something to watch. Improving weather for the remainder of the period. Temperatures start below normal then recover toward normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
A weaker disturbance may come through to start the period then it looks like a trend to mainly dry and milder weather as high pressure takes over.

95 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A couple of things for you/blog members:

    1. We are attending a wedding at the Sea Port Hotel along the Water front just
    off of Northern ave on Saturday. Is there a chance their parking lot/garage
    would flood due to the storm and astronomical high tides?

    2. Was just reading Dr. Cohen’s blog. He seems really conflicted about the upcoming Winter. So many variables at play. The following is a summary at the end of the blog that pretty well sums it up. See if you can make sense of it:

    In conclusion, the relatively slow advance of Eurasian snow cover, the current lack of high latitude blocking and a general El Niño favor overall relatively mild winter temperatures for the Eastern US. However I do see high bust potential for this forecast. Central Pacific rather than an Eastern Pacific El Niño may favor a colder winter than represented in the model. Elevated North Pacific SSTs may contribute to a cold Eastern US. In addition future sea ice anomalies and high latitude blocking may eventually contribute to a cold winter. Also snow cover has been relatively extensive this fall across Canada. If this were to persist, it could contribute to cold temperatures in the Eastern US. None of these factors are properly represented in the model and could be dominant on the winter atmospheric circulation in particular across North America, more so than low October Siberian snow cover extent.

    1. 1) High tide Saturday at 1:40 pm, 11 ft in Boston Harbor. Assuming the EURO low level jet verifies on the 00z, perhaps the low level jet passes overhead eastern Mass in the early afternoon Saturday. That might mean the sfc winds ramping up to match the best surge with the time of high tide.

      3) Interesting …… I’ve been thinking to myself that …… its kind of difficult to possibly use the Siberia snowfall cover in the autumn nowadays, when the north pole sea ice is so different (less) than it was 20 years ago. With that variable so different, it might throw the Siberia snowfall trend out of whack for what may happen later in the winter.

    2. I think you will be fine the garage is not water front . This is my go to hotel we love it here just stayed here last month & going back after Xmas for two nights. Spotless hotel with excellent service.

  7. Logan likely actually got down to 32F yesterday morning since their “official” temp was recorded as 34F.

  9. It now “appears” that the weekend storm is resolving into an INSIDE RUNNER/COASTAL HUGGER! Blah blah blah blah…………………………

    1. It’s October I am not bummed by that. Come December through March inside runner I will be bummed.

    2. 12z GFS is an inside runner for Saturday but the FV-3 and GGEM have more of a benchmark/Nantucket track. Either way this is primarily a rain event for most.

      I am more intrigued with the second system early next week as it looks like more of an offshore track and may have some more cold air to work with although it is appearing fairly weak on the models as of now. Not going to get much in the way of wintery precip if we don’t get the intensity.

    1. Truly happy news!!!! It amazes me just how far snow making has progressed. I recall machines attempting to make snow when I was knee high to a grasshopper. Not sure what it was they were throwing, but it was not recognizable.

      I’m glad to see they have the temps necessary to get a true head start.

  12. Interesting note today with models is that FV3-GFS & ECMWF have been rather similar the last several runs on the weekend idea while the soon-t0-be-retired GFS has had its own idea and is attempting to adjust now to some degree. But the FV3 & Euro diverge quite a bit when it comes to next week with the FV3 more progressive and the Euro more amplified. Actually lean toward the FV3 on this one. There are adjustments needed in that model but it seems to do OK with larger scale features during the last couple weeks.

  13. As we have a strong hurricane moving into the western coast of Mexico it’s important to note that today is the 3rd anniversary of the strongest hurricane to be observed in NHC’s forecast region, Patricia, coming ashore on this date in 2015. This is the time of year when eastern Pacific hurricanes are most likely to be pulled north and northeast into western Mexico because of the more southward-displaced jet stream in mid autumn.

  14. TK, what are your updated weather thoughts for this evening and tonight for the game? Some of those elements to the SW of the city and Western MA look pretty threatening. I’m heading down to Fenway in a few minutes from Andover. Go Sox!!!!

    1. I think they may still have a few showers around up until about first pitch schedule. But after that it should be ok. At worst there will be a delay of up to 30 minutes to start the game. With a bit of luck it will start right on time.

      1. Can’t thank you enough kind sir. And certainly can’t thank you enough for this great blog and all the work you put into it!

  15. Lot of rotation in the cells out there today… seen a couple videos of possible funnels/waterspouts near Cape Cod Bay earlier and a really good looking cell near Providence right now. Hail with some of these also.

    1. Just as I posted this, a warning popped up for that cell, one of those “enhanced” severe t-storm warnings mentioning tornado potential. Would recommend sheltering if you are within that warning.

    2. Perfect set-up today. People wonder why we can get this with cool surface temps, but it’s relative. Very cold upstairs.

  16. Hard to tell because of the ground clutter due to proximity to the radar, but there may have just been a tornado debris signature near or a little north of North Providence. Not sure though.

  17. Rotation also looks to have weakened, essentially the circulation became occluded within the thunderstorm. Could cycle back up but more likely a classic quick spin-up event.

  18. Need some help. I just went computer illiterate.

    Could someone please give me the Wunderground Radar link for Boston?

    Thank you.

  20. My and his GF live is in Cumberland – not sure if he is there now. More likely driving there from Boston but would have left Boston at 3. His GF works in providence so I think she is ok

    THANK YOU ALL

  23. Mendon, millville, douglas, franklin, uxbridge all just lost power townwide from what I understand….I don’t see a storm in the area.

  25. TK nailed it, that storm is definitely trying to go for round two. New tornado warning out, take cover immediately.

  28. I don’t think I like the direction that cell is headed and we have parent teacher conferences this early evening.

    1. Son txt’d – his phone low on battery but he saw my txt.

      The box area is over multiple main highways at rush hour. I’m praying for all out there.

  34. I just hope this isn’t a bad sign for the Sox in this series. There was such expectations of mostly, if not ALL dry conditions for this evening and even late afternoon.

    1. No there was not. Myself and other mets have been talking about showers (and in my case possible t-storms) right into evening.

    3. I would venture to guess that is the first time the NWS has been able to photograph a funnel cloud looking out of their office window!

      1. This tornado 2 for the day? Are the lines/spokes radiating out what you all refer to as debris field or signature?

        1. The center of the tornado is over Norton Center in that image, just northwest of the black circle (which is the location of the doppler radar). Look at the curved green and red signatures rotating out from the center.

          1. Great description. Thank you. They all originally looked straight to me but after you explained I see the difference. Do we know if Norton has a lot of damage?

        2. I believe there may have been as many as 4 tornadoes today. There were two separate touch downs I believe in that line of cells from N Providence to Attleboro to Norton plus the funnel cloud in Charlestown on the south shore and another in Cape Cod Canal.

          I’ll have to say this caught me totally off guard today. Not that it did much of anything here in the Hartford area.

  37. The storm moved through Lunenburg quickly. There was lightning, hail, rain, wind and then right back to sunshine. I wish I had been able to get a photo of the rainbow earlier. It was much more vivid with the secondary one also visible.

    https://imgur.com/a/xqJILAJ

  40. Thank you, TK.

    Also, thank you JP Dave for sending Judah Cohen’s remarks about winter.

    I’ve been extraordinarily busy in recent weeks, so I haven’t posted much. Hope all is well with everyone.

    Some thunder and lightning in Back Bay with lots of heavy rain showers for the past few hours. The ground is fairly saturated, which means large puddles and ponding.

    This iceberg in Antarctica is remarkably rectangular:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45953252

    The autumn quiz below is kind of fun. Some questions are easy. Others pretty difficult. I got 7 right out of 10.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-45373892

    As for predictions for the World Serious (when my son was 8 he used to call it that), I’m not good at them, so I’m not going to even try. It’s why I don’t gamble. I will say this: Don’t underestimate the Dodgers. I know one thing, we’re blessed in this city to have such competitive teams. Win or lose it’s great to have a team in the championship finals.

  41. My back has been out all day, ‘though we had all the shades open. Sun was in and out. Turned off computer just after noon because of back hurting. Heard noon weather; possibly some downpours w/thunder. Just before 4:30 my sister called from Framingham and said did I hear about the tornado warning that been going on. I was totally surprised. Turned on tv and couldn’t believe it. In Sudbury, around 5:00 it got dark towards the northwest. Opened window; heard a lot of crickets! My sister heard them in Framingham, too. In any case, sky got very dark over us – but weirdly bright to west. Cloud to cloud lightning that was vivid and orange. Not much wind; briefly heavy rain. Lots of thunder – almost sounded like it was growling. Very strange weather but thanks, TK for explaining it in your post above re: cold air above.

    Vicki – hope everyone is ok from your post above. My friend lives in Onset. Tried calling her to advise re: storm but no answer. Looks like storm gained power once over the water.

    1. All is ok. Haven’t heard from son but his GF would have let me know if a problem

      I hope your back improves 🙁

      1. Thanks. It’s somewhat better. I did some heavy cleaning yesterday and changing our summer wardrobes to winter and moved the wrong way.

  42. I am hearing that 2000 customers in Norton are without power due to the storm. Tree and property damage on Reservoir St. and Mansfield Ave. Mansfield Ave. is Route 140 that runs right in front of TPC-Norton golf course. The storm report matches up with the radar echo that Mark shared and the photo that appeared on the NWS Twitter from BOX looking north.
    Quite a day! Let’s hope it’s quite a night!
    Go Sox!

  43. So far we have 1 confirmed tornado Lincoln RI, a second under investigation in North Providence with NWS to comment further, and it’s pretty apparent that the one over the Cape Cod Canal near the bridge was obviously down, and the one around 6:15PM over Cape Cod Bay off Sandwich was filmed by a friend of mine (among other people), so I’m betting on 4 confirmed tornadoes on this most “perfect” day to produce them. Hard to see these low frequency events coming much in advance. Last time when I saw the track of the developing low and knowing how cold it was aloft, in the back of my mind I was thinking of how any sun would rapidly fire stuff, but thinking it would be mainly overcast with minimal sun I just added a slight chance of t-storms to my forecast. I would not have been so bold to forecast severe weather today.

  45. If there were indeed 4 more confirmed tornadoes today then by my unofficial count that would bring us up to 18 confirmed tornadoes in New England in 2018. That would have to be a record, or at least close to one?

      2. And that article was on August 5 and we had already had as many tornadoes as Oklahoma (12). Wouldn’t be surprised if we have surpassed them by now.

        According to that article, we average 7 tornadoes/year. Didn’t realize we receive that many.

        I found one article that said there were reports of as many as 26 in one year but it was prior to 1975 when our confirmation methods were not as good. It is suspected that many of these were downbursts and falsely reported.

  47. Public Information Statement
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    638 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

    …NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/23/2018 TORNADO EVENT…

    .Lincoln Rhode Island…

    Start Location…Lincoln in Providence County RI
    End Location…Lincoln in Providence County RI
    Date…October 23 2018
    Estimated Time…334 PM EDT

    …Summary…
    The National Weather Service in Norton has confirmed a tornado
    touched down in Lincoln RI earlier today. Additional survey work
    will be necessary on Wednesday to determine further details
    regarding this tornado.

    Preliminary survey work is also being done in North Providence RI.
    However, no determination has yet been completed.

    * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
    change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
    Storm Data.

  49. Today we are getting a perfect example of what a combination of our current radar technology combined with everybody having a personal camera has allowed us to do. We don’t miss many of these anymore. It makes you wonder how many “record setting” tornado seasons we have missed, not just here, but everywhere, in the past. Probably many.

      1. Exactly. We missed a fair amount of hurricanes pre-satellites. Ships caught some, but not all.

        A big part of the reason that observed #’s of events are up in the last few decades is this.

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