Wednesday Forecast

48 Comments

7:30AM

QUICK COMMENTARY
I’d love to do a review of yesterday’s weather right here but am pressed for time before I have to send this and be out of the house, so that will appear in segments in the comments by myself (and others I am sure) during the day. In the mean time, onto an abbreviated version of the usual.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)
Low pressure moving away today is still close enough for lots of cloudiness and perhaps a few rain showers for a while today before dry air takes over and it’s quite breezy and chilly through Thursday. High pressure builds in later Thursday through Friday with continued dry but chilly weather. And then the long-talked-about storm threat arrives as an actual weather event on Saturday as a wind and mostly rain maker, that may start as snow in some interior locations due to lingering cold air (no significant accumulation expected). We get into a break between 2 storm systems by Sunday with less rain and wind by then. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Risk of a few rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing late.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving, may start as sleet/snow interior briefly. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and drizzle. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the lower to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)
A second storm system will pass through the region October 29 with a rain risk that may end as mix/snow in some areas if it lingers into night. Improving weather October 30-31 but windy and chilly a first before moderating slightly. A bit milder to start November but another system brings a rain shower risk by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
A trend to dry and somewhat milder weather for a good portion of this period but may turn unsettled and colder by the end of the period.

48 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK!

    The believe Logan was the jackpot yesterday with 0.41”.

    I still can’t believe such violent storms for so late in October.

    1. Some were violent, however I don’t believe they were the “typical” tall summer thunderstorms that reached 30,000 to 60,000 ft into the atmosphere.

      I believe the tornadoes came in response to a warm front, where just north of it, there were SE surface winds ….. meanwhile aloft, the winds were southerly, southwesterly and were turning with height. Also, there was an impressive disturbance overhead.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Yesterday was definitely a crazy day. I’m short on time this morning as well but I hope to take a much deeper dive into yesterday’s events when I get some time. Fitting that the “year of the tornado” in SNE ends with an event like that.

    1. I’m interested in hearing the recap of yesterday. Absolutely fascinating day for sure. WxWatcher – posts by you only minutes apart showed how quickly everything developed.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yesterday was insane for me. No time at all and I wasn’t on that event at all.
    Not even close.

    Look forward to any and all recaps.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    I, too, am wondering if we may have another day like yesterday before winter sets in. If memory serves me right, I seem to recall hearing that Nov. can bring tornadoes, for some reason or other. And I do recall a tornado watch back in 2000. But nothing happened that I know. And with this “weird weather” wondering if Sat. storm could bring “spin-ups” or even heavy snow in the Boston area!

    1. Hi Marjie – I hope your back is improving.

      I also remember a tornado watch the weekend after Thanksgiving in 2008 I believe.

  9. The GFS cracks me up.

    It usually ends up looking like the Euro, about 72 hrs AFTER the Euro has figured the late medium to early long range out first.

  10. Finally, Sutton seems to have some color. At least it isn’t all green, but the colors are dull. It also seems leaves in some areas are falling before turning. My daughter has lived in Uxbridge for 14 years. They have a row of lovely burning bushes that are always vibrant. But they are also dull and many leaves are falling before changing – or curled up and brown on the bush.

  11. Caribou, Frenchville and Houlton (all far northern Maine) all reporting moderate snow and 33F or 34F with visibilities of either 1/2 or 1/4 mile.

  12. Tweets from Ryan Hanrahan about severe weather yesterday
    Here’s the explanation for today’s tornado outbreak in New England. Very little instability in total but A LOT of instablity in low levels (0-3km CAPE of 100-200 j/kg). Coupled with over 200 units of SRH (wind shear) the stage was set for a number of rotating storms.

    Last night’s NAM did show the potential for today’s tornadoes. I missed it. Low level shear and instability (0-3km CAPE >100 j/kg and 300+ unites of 0-3km SRH!) Actually environment likely more unstable (EWB was 14C/13C at the time).

    Ryan Hanrahan’s blog
    https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Exceptional-Tornado-Outbreak-in-New-England-498370171.html?c

  14. Tk how bad is Saturday’s weather in regards to the rain , wind & any concerns for coastal flooding . Thank you .

  15. If you think about yesterday’s “anomalous” event, is it really? Yes, severe storms and tornadoes don’t occur often in October, but they have. We are only just over 4 weeks outside of summer. Put the synoptics in place as they were and it’s not really that surprising that 4 or 5 super cells formed in perfect conditions just south of a warm front with that kind of cold air above. And we didn’t need tall storms to do it. Everything was packed down in the lowest 20,000 feet. Specifically rare, but generally not as unusual as one may think.

    1. I had the impression from discussion here today that folks didn’t think the time was anomalous…..however, the number of tornadoes in New England this year is. Marjie and I were both recalling warnings or watches (cannot recall which) in November

      1. It was somewhat anomalous for the month of October, but the pattern supported such an event, so in that sense it was not. Weather is perception. But usually when I refer to “folks thinking” a certain thing it’s referring to what I hear more outside this blog than on it.

        1. Got it. Severe Weather can be like any major event. People react differently. The majority of folks outside this and other weather blogs don’t have all of the great input here and that is ok. To me it is human nature for folks to wonder.

  16. Thank you, TK.

    Today’s weather reminds me of … April. Yesterday’s weather had some April in it today, including the severe storms. But, today has a distinctly typical April feel to it: Raw, showery, occasional glimpse of the sun, mostly gray.

    On a different topic, I’ve found the fall colors this year to be quite vibrant.

  17. it depends on where you are when talking about the foilage. This year it was extremely gradually, just recently has more trees changed color and they are rather dull.

    1. For dull foliage, go to the Netherlands:

      https://nos.nl/data/image/2018/10/24/508485/1008×567.jpg

      I am convinced that nowhere on this planet is the foliage as vivid and vibrant as New England, even when we think it’s a “dull” year. On PBS I was watching Autumn Watch last week. The program focused on fall in New England. One of the presenters was British and also a naturalist, and he was truly amazed by the foliage.

      The Public Garden has several bright `torches’ – maples and oak trees – that are fire red and orange. These trees are surrounded by foreigners with cameras and cellphones, every day. Of course, the other frequently photographed item is the gray squirrel, which is rarely seen in much of Europe (except some in the UK).

      My ex-wife is Dutch and when she lived in the Boston area in the late 1990s, she could not get over the fall colors. She still talks about them.

  19. How many total different tornadoes, waterspouts, funnel clouds were reported yesterday? Is that reported somewhere? Is the confirmed tornado in Lincoln the same storm as the one in Norton? If so, does that count as one or two tornadoes?

    1. It counts as 2 but it was from the same storm, because there was a distinctive break between the 2.

      The Sandwich event was over water so NWS does not add that to the tornado tally, as was the one over the canal.

        1. It’s usually considered “full” on the actual date of occurrence and 1 day either side of it, so over 3 calendar days.

          1. Thank you and Awesome. I may become a grand aunt tomorrow. We were hoping he’d be born under the full Hunters Moon. She lost her dad, my brother, when she was 14. A full hunters moon would be so very Chris.

  22. No Schilling or Damon for the first pitch. Complete BS. Other than Papi who came throw more than those two?

    1. Agree 100%, Coastal. I don’t care for Schilling’s politics, but that doesn’t matter, nor should it. Sports is not politics. Schilling, in particular, was integral to the 2004 Red Sox. Plus, he lives close by. He should have been invited.

    2. I think it’s more to do with the number of people that are able to throw the first pitch then anything else

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