Thursday Forecast

36 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)
A chilly northwesterly flow will dominate the weather across southern New England today and then high pressure builds in for a very chilly night and cool but more tranquil Friday. The “calm before the storm” phrase will live up to its name as we have a coastal low to contend with Saturday that will come up the East Coast and bring a bout of wind and rain. Although this system may start as a mix or snow briefly inland, that will cause no significant issues. What will is the coastal flooding near and during high tide times, especially the Saturday afternoon one, which will likely have moderate impact in vulnerable areas. We enter a zone between 2 systems Sunday, which will likely be rain-free other than some early drizzle. A second low will make a run at the region Monday. I’d been concerned about this one having more cold air to work with and perhaps having a rain/snow line but at this time it looks like that will not be the case, and the system will be the weaker of the two, bringing just some periods of rainfall to start the new week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Filtered sun through mid morning with lots of high clouds, then brighter sun and a few passing clouds late morning through afternoon. Highs 44-50. Wind NW increasing to 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-28 interior low spots, 29-35 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Bright sun through early afternoon then filtered sun with more high clouds remainder of day. Highs 44-50. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain arriving south to north by dawn which may start as brief snow/mix interior higher elevations with only minor accumulation possible in highest elevations of southwestern NH. Lows 31-38. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Overcast with rain, heavy at times through midday, diminishing to lighter rain/drizzle during the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Coastal flooding probable especially around early afternoon high tide.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of drizzle and a slight chance of a rain shower early. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the middle to upper 50s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)
A shift to a more progressive west to east flow takes place. Improving but cool weather October 30-31. Dry, milder November 1. Rain shower threat November 2 with a front from the west. Dry, cooling November 3.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
A rain risk leads milder air into the region early in the period which hangs on until mid period before a rain shower threat leads a chill back by the end of the period.

36 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Ocean temp at Boston Buoy is currently sitting at: 55.4

    Average is about 53.7
    Departure from Average is: +1.7

    Much better than a couple of weeks ago.

  8. Thanks TK. The Saturday storm is coming into better focus now. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a storm with so much hype 10 days ahead of time and so little talk about it two days out. It’s still coming just as it ever was, but it’s funny how the talk of “Sandy 2.0” or “Snowtober 2.o” has faded as it becomes clear this is nothing more than a run of the mill coastal low. Actually, it’s a pretty weak one. If not for a high to the north enhancing the pressure gradient a bit, it would be a total non-event. As it is, I think we’ll survive an inch of rain and some 40mph gusts.

    Beyond that, the pattern does look to remain somewhat unsettled, but also a little warmer as we get into early November. Mean trough shifts westward towards the central US and maybe some weak ridging in the East. Should favor a couple Lakes Cutter type systems over the next couple weeks, putting us on the warm side with occasional frontal passages. Temps and precip likely both averaging near or a little above normal through ~11/10 (coldest the next couple days). Typical fall weather.

    1. In other words HO-HUM….

      Cutters to the West….Hmmm with the action this Summer/Fall, I wonder
      if one of those causes another bout of spin ups?

    1. Important to note, strongest storm in recorded history to directly hit those very small islands.

      NOT the strongest storm in recorded history. People are already taking it wrong (not on this blog, elsewhere). I’ve observed at least a half dozen storms equal to or stronger than that which never hit land at that intensity.

      Events like this are constantly spun to make them sound “worst ever”.

  12. Well, judging by the many upcoming storms going to our west, it was a nice run of winter the last week and a half.

    As BB would say, its on to Spring !!!!!

      1. No. I’ve already said this upcoming pattern is TEMPORARY. It’s part of a pattern readjustment that takes 2-3 weeks to cycle through and then we end up back in the pattern we’re in now.

    2. Well at least that’s on par with what the retail stores are at on their calendars. 😉

      2. I know you are breathlessly waiting to hear this…..Hallmark Christmas movies begin tomorrow night. YAY!!!!

        1. I wouldn’t mind a nice Christmas movie, but the
          Acting on the HallMark movies is so BRUTAL
          I can’t stomach watching any of them. Just pathetic
          acting. And on top of that, the theme seems to be
          the same for every single one of them.

          Yes, we watched a bunch at one point, but not any more.
          Neither one of us can stand it. 😀 😀 😀

          1. I enjoy them. You are right that majority are just fair. But some are quite good. Basically, they are mindless good fun. I think we need more of that…well, at least I do.

      1. So far the pieces that are in place all point to it. Dr. Cohen’s blog update yesterday solidified that even more for me, combining what he said with what I know are the most certain parts of the long range picture. There are still several key pieces to fit into place.

    2. give me snow that stays on the ground for more than 4 days and I will be happy, I do not like bare ground in the winter.

        1. I don’t mind it either way. Snow on ground, bare ground. It’s still winter. I’ve seen plenty of both. There was a whole lot of bare ground in winter in the 1980s, a whole lot more than we see the last few decades.

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