Friday Forecast

69 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)
A tranquil, chilly day today as high pressure hangs on then gives way to a rapidly advancing low pressure system that will turn into a formidable storm system for the region Saturday along with wind, rain, and some coastal flooding. But this system moves right along and we get into a dry slot with a pretty decent Sunday before a follow-up, weaker system brings more wet weather to the region Monday. Drier air arrives from the west behind the second system on Tuesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Brightest sun early then filtered sun with more high clouds balance of the day. Highs 44-50. Wind light NW to N.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Rain arriving south to north by dawn which may start as brief snow/mix interior higher elevations with only minor accumulation possible in highest elevations of southwestern NH. Lows 31-38. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Overcast with rain, heavy at times through midday, diminishing to lighter rain/drizzle during the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts above 30 MPH interior and above 45 MPH coastal areas. Coastal flooding probable especially around early afternoon high tide.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with drizzle, areas of fog, and periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of drizzle and a slight chance of a rain shower early. Highs 56-63. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)
Halloween looks dry and milder as high pressure dominates. November starts mild with a rain shower risk late November 1 into November 2 before it cools down. Dry, cool November 3. Disturbance brings a rain risk November 4 based on current timing and rather swift movement of systems.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
Next rain risk mid period will split an early period chill and quick warm up from a late period cool down once again.

69 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I’ll be curious to see if the above average SST causes the boundary layer to be a bit milder than projected along coastal sections and if that further allows for the 850 mb jet to mix to the surface.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 26 this morning here in JP, coldest thus far this season.

    re: above average SST
    True. above average, but getting much much closer to average.

    Current Boston Buoy Temp: 53.8
    Average: 53.5
    Departure: 0.3

    That represents a significant cool down over a 2 week period.

    https://imgur.com/a/AZOWJ9W

    1. Thanks JpDave.

      I do think with the chilly weather, that within dozens of miles of land, the anomoly is much lower. But, I think overall ….. 50 ….. 100 miles out into the ocean, the anomoly of 1 to 2C still exists.

      1. I am not sure of the averages out there.
        But I did check the buoys and I think you are correct

        Jordan Basin is 53.1 about 100 mi East of Portland, Me
        And a Buoy well South of Nova Scotia called
        La Have Bank is at 55.2

  4. Re: Tomorrow’s storm

    At best it’s a coastal hugger, but most models say an inside runner.
    If this were Winter, I’d be screaming!

    Most models keep the strongest winds over the ocean and parts of the Cape
    and Islands.

  5. Thank you, TK

    25 here. I think second lowest. But the frost is not as heavy as it’s been with higher lows

  8. Thanks TK.

    Tomorrow’s storm has suddenly gotten pretty interesting for interior New England. Pronounced trend in the past 24 hours for a stronger, colder storm. A front-end pasting of snow/ice could be in the cards especially for the higher terrain of central New England. This would catch many with their pants down- no winter weather headlines to speak of in effect. NAM looks to be the coldest guidance, we’ll see how it does.

  9. NAM is interesting for sure. Could be quite the front end thump for a good chunk of VT, NH, Maine and even portions of the higher elevations of northern MA.

    I will say it has been mighty cold this AM. 23 at my house, coldest thus for of the season. Cold air might not be so quick to retreat.

    1. Which is why I think some areas will have a possible ice issue but then again the ground is still rather warm.

  10. If this storm were not going to be such a coastal hugger/inside runner, it would
    be a substantial snow storm for inland areas, much like the Snotober event a few
    years ago.

    Oh well. It looks to be a mess up North.

  11. I actually just looked at the tropicaltidbits vs some of the other programs I have, it seems to be off, adding lots of sleet and ice to the equation. My other programs show 2 to 8 inches in the higher elevations.

    1. Certainly in a case like this, the Kuchera snow is a much better indicator (not perfect) than the 10:1 ratio.

  13. Well, the NWS has some concerns for TS with rotation yet again.

    Here is an excerpt:

    This late timing is also coincident
    with upper lvl dry slot moving in steepening mid lvl lapse rates
    to 6.0-7.0C/km. Some indication of MU CAPE values 500+ and very
    high helicity values given the LLJ. Therefore, this will need
    to be watched as some stronger TS could develop within the dry
    slot and/or along the warm front, enhancing both rainfall rates,
    risk for strong winds and even a very low risk for an isolated
    tornado if all dynamic/thermodynamic features can coincide.

    2. This is what the SPC has to say about the situation:

      …Discussion…
      An expansive mid/upper trough will encompass the eastern half of the
      US Saturday. Beneath the influence of a dual-jet structure over the
      Northeast, a coastal low will lift northward near the Mid-Atlantic
      coast. To its east/northeast, a strong low-level jet and related
      isentropic ascent will support widespread precipitation across much
      of the region. Forecast soundings suggest enough elevated buoyancy
      should materialize for a few thunderstorms across southeastern New
      England during the morning. Additionally, the arrival of steepening
      mid-level lapse rates near the nose of the dry slot may support a
      couple additional storms into the afternoon hours.

  19. SPC has Significantly expanded the general thunder area over NE tomorrow .

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    1) New England: Well-defined surface low is expected to track from
    the Delmarva region early in the period to coastal ME by 28/12z.
    Strong low-level warm advection should aid large-scale ascent
    northeast of the low track where forecast mid-level lapse
    rates/instability should be adequate for elevated convection.
    Parcels will likely be rooted near 700mb and lightning is possible
    with the strongest updrafts.

  21. Per P.G.’s tweet, it is now official that she is no longer a member of the WBZ-TV weather team, and has been replaced by S.W.

        1. Oh and PG was Pamela Gardner.
          She just could not cut it here. She may know here stuff (I don’t know), but her presentation just didn’t improve.

  22. From Eric Fisher
    JUST IN: @NWSBoston confirms 2 *more* tornadoes from Tuesday’s severe weather.

    An EF-1 in Hardwick and also an EF-0 in Hubbardston

    1. Thank you JJ. In MA?? Or are those the name of towns in another state. I didn’t know we had tornado warnings? Nothing north providence of did I miss that?

  23. Those are in MA. 4 tornadoes in one day in MA.
    Lincoln, RI an EF 1 tornado also struck on Tuesday.

    1. Wow. Did we have tornado warnings other than around the Norton area? I don’t recall seeing any in central MA

  24. I saw a severe thunderstorm warning where one of those two latest confirmed tornadoes occurred. I only saw two tornado warnings that day and they were near the Lincoln, RI area and Norton, MA area.

  25. Sometimes you can get tornadoes that form very quickly and are very short-lived in the set-up we had that day. It’s not something we see often. I’m guessing there have been instances of wind damage before in similar situations that were tornadoes that were not recognized as such. And these days there is less and less open space. There are neighborhoods everywhere. Woods are disappearing. These things are more easily spotted than ever. We are literally everywhere.

    2. Ahhh but some of us are happy not being everywhere. This centerist on many topics loves the conservative farm town of Sutton where you might not see another car for miles and are more likely to see a tractor

      And those two towns have a smaller combined population than Sutton

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A-2EGfWHrpU

  28. What a game unless of course your a Red Sox fan. I fell asleep after the 15th inning when I thought Muncy ended it with a walk off home run in the 15th but it was foul by a few feet. Woke up to local news at 3:30 and they said Dodgers won in walk off in longest game time wise in World Series history 7 hours 20 minutes.

    1. Well before the series started I said Sox in 5 and their one loss would occur on a Saturday. I guess TECHNICALLY the loss was on Saturday, even out there. So now the next 2 games belong to the Sox. 😉

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