35 thoughts on “Labor Day Weekend – 1/2 Way Update”

1. Katia is coming very very close

2. The latest spagetti plots keeps Katia offshore but until the turn happens it needs to be watched.

3. I think it was a couple summers ago that Hurricane Bill, a fairly powerful hurricane, moved about 300 miles southeast of Cape Cod. T resultinghe surf for a few days was ferocious. If I recall correctly, I think a young girl lost her life up at Acadia National Park in Maine, when she and her dad were swept off of the rocks watching the surf.

   1. Second sentence was meant to start with……..The resulting surf

      1. Tom I remember Bill and I also remember the incident in Maine.

   2. The best part about potential very rough surf is that this weekend is usually a much bigger beach weekend than next, so there will be less people at the shore. I did hear they had to rescue a couple swimmers at Good Harbor in Gloucester on Friday from rip currents, resulting from a non-tropical low in the Atlantic.

4. Early call: Outer Banks of NC will see 1 or 2 outer rain bands on the western edge of Katia, otherwise no rain or appreciable wind in the US. Big swells & rough surf, absolutely.

   The westward trend in the model runs reminds me of a cycle they went through with Earl last year, and today’s 06z NAM is too drastic in its sudden turning of Katia more to the west at the end of the period. I believe it’s responding to a bad placement of Lee (or some other made up low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico). Kind of a model chain reaction of badness. 😉

   1. TK, it would seem Lee, in addition to Katia, is taking a track more to the west too. From what I know about the weather, shouldn’t both the forecasted tracks be further east or showing eastward movement? The cones of uncertainty seems too far west.

      1. Forecasting the track of a storm like Lee is very difficult for the computer, so one must rely on meteorology without the aid of computer forecasts far more.

         They have both been a bit west, but I don’t think this changes the overall picture, at least at this point.

5. Hi Guys- nice weekend so far. I am getting ready for a house full of people for end of summer cookout. The pool is closed for the season there is just to much junk in it from the storm to clean for one day. We were planning on closing it the end of next week when are new cover comes in. I had to much to do yestreday to clean for today so will clean during the week, I am on vacation next week. I hope everybody enjoys this weekend. And remember Labor day is a day of rest.

   1. Hi John. Sounds as if you host some big parties. Enjoy!!

      1. Vicki- I am glad you enjoyed your stay here on the south shore.
         We don’t mind having people over. The pool was not missed today, everyone still had fun.

   2. Or a day of finishing school shopping for my son. This will be the first Labor Day in years that I haven’t worked. Getting the chores done then enjoying whatever is left of it, with maybe even some t-storms to track.

6. Check out the the visible satellite for New England, you can clearly see the line of storms entering New England.

7. 59F atop Mt. Washington, wow….thats a warm airmass !!

   Outside into the warmth and mugginess, have a good rest of the day all !!

8. I’m going to tweak the forecast for today – temps being lowered just a tad in response to more extensive cloudcover beneath a layer of warm air a few thousand feet above.

9. I have finally decided once and for all to have my last BBQ of the season TODAY! Even though other forecasts are calling for “dry” tomorrow and TK “scattered” showers I would rather BBQ with sun rather than “more clouds than sun” and the possibilities of raindrops. 🙂

   As for Katia, this morning’s NWS Discussion has the Euro the westernmost track near the 40/70 benchmark and GFS well OTS, then I feel for now less threatened for any serious impact. Even if the current “first case” scenario happens, I believe we can handle a late summer nor’easter with an inch or two of rain and maybe gale force at most winds.

   1. There are quite a few clouds over parts of the region now, as noted above, but these are not rain-producers and should thin out again somewhat. Today’s a good day to BBQ. I’m still not convinced we get through the day without a storm threat tomorrow. The line has exhibited the personality of advanced clusters to our west, and that could happen here, to some degree, though it is less likely than areas far to the west.

      And I agree with you about Katia’s worst case scenario. I do think our scenario will be that we can see her clouds to the east and her large waves on our coastline.

10. Pretty cloudy here in JP hoping for breaks in the clouds:).

    1. You should have at least partial sun back by the end of the 2PM hour.

       1. Pretty darn good timing TK!! Once the baby woke from his nap around 2:30 the sun made it’s appearance.

11. The 12z NAM run is coming back to the right idea of picking up the moisture of TS/TD Lee and moving it up along the frontal boundary crossing the East Coast States Monday-Wednesday. I believe this model was in error on previous runs trying to bury the low in the Gulf of Mexico. There will be another system their fairly soon, but it will be a separate system and likely attain a name itself. I also believe the NAM’s previous error of turning Katia to the west is gone since it corrected what to do with Lee. This run turns Katia more to the NW with a hint of a re-curve well underway. Based on this info will continue to hold with the scenario of Katia passing just west of the half way point between Cape Hatteras NC & Bermuda around Friday, only a few very far outer rain bands scraping Hatteras, and no impact from precip or wind anywhere, just rough surf and large ocean swells for a good part of the East Coast of the US as the hurricane recurves and the center remains over water, well offshore of New England.

12. I also am doing the BBQ today. The morning air in Newton was heavy and thick. Now there is some sun and a breeze came up. Plenty humid but breeze helps.

13. keep the humid coming 🙂 sorry if im redundant.. summer is my favorite with spring. winter is claustrophobic for me… 🙂

    1. After Monday I don’t see us reaching 80 on a consistent basis no longer until next May or June, enjoy 🙂

14. Just by looking at the visible satellite loop, you can note the steering patterns, which favor an out to sea scenario for Hurricane Katia.

15. TK, I voted again today. How long does this go on for?

    1. Voting through September 9, winners announced September 14.

16. I believe we get most of our rain late Mon night and Tue afternoon, like I was saying I believe highs of 80 on a consistent basis is gone till next May or June, we will now be able to enjoy highs between 60-75 degrees and lows between 40-50 degrees for the next 8 weeks 🙂

    1. Perfect for me:)

17. Ditto here:)
    Thunderstorm Index remains the same at a 1 since I don’t see severe weather. This looks more like a heavy rain POTENTIAL with the chance of embedded thunder rather than a severe weather threat.

18. Guys TWC is airing a one hour show on Irene now 9-10

19. Thanks. I am watching it now. Its been good so far.

    1. Glad you saw the post. It is very good so far.

20. Speaking of weather I don’t remember this many delays for lightning in football. You had the Notre Dame South Florida game yesterday with two delays, the Western Michigan Michigan game yesterday, and today the Marshall West Virginia game has had two delays. Some great photos of the lightning in these stadiums. Unfortunately in the Marshall West Virginia game a fan was struck by lightning.

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