Monday Forecast

108 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)
A low pressure system will move across the area today from southwest to northeast bringing rain showers which will end this afternoon. Drier weather arrives tonight and lasts into most of midweek, including Halloween, which now not only has trick or treat scheduled but also a Boston Red Sox World Series victory parade! We have a quick shot of warmer air Thursday as November arrives, but an approaching cold front will bring wet weather Thursday night into Friday as we transition back to cooler. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with episodic rain showers, a few possibly heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms, ending during the afternoon. Partial clearing later in the day. Highs 48-55. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH morning, SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers at night. Breezy. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Breezy. Temperatures fall into the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
Cooler with a couple episodes of rain possible from November 3 to early November 4 then dry for the middle of the period before more wet weather threatens late in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Dry and cooler, then moderating. Unsettled weather may return late in the period.

108 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK.

    1.26″ from the weekend storm and 0.17″ so far today in Coventry, CT. That brings us to 5.65″ on the month of October. Fifth straight month now of more than 5″ of rain and about 35″ of rain since June 1st!

    And looking at the GFS this AM, still no end in sight of the wet pattern through mid November.

  5. 6z GFS looks interesting for the 11/11-11/12 time period with a couple of systems passing to our south and east, and cold air nearby….

  6. Turned on news and something was said about a tornado warning in RI. I see one over an island. Not sure of its name??

  7. From Judah:

    CFS predicting big changes in the #PolarVortex (PV) between now and December with significant disrupting of the PV over time. If (and a really big if!) accurate this would favor a quick start to the winter season with multiple episodes of #cold and #snow.

  10. Thanks Tk . I don’t think the parade is set yet waiting on the mayor it’s tomorrow or Wednesday

      2. The duck boats are fired up. The Boston Red Sox won the World Series on Sunday, knocking off the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 in Game 5 of the Fall Classic at Dodger Stadium. So, when can fans clear their schedules and get ready to party? For now, it’s looking like Wednesday, Oct. 31. That’s right: Sox fans will have two holidays to celebrate Wednesday. Team president and CEO Sam Kennedy told NESN’s Guerin Austin the date, then later added to WBZ that it will start at 11 a.m. ET. It’s worth noting that Boston mayor Marty Walsh told WBZ the plans were being finalized and would be announced Monday. Walsh also left open the possibility of the parade being held Tuesday. Still, Kennedy confirmed to multiple outlets that Wednesday would be the day. The route will be confirmed with the rest of the plans, but in the past, it has started at Fenway Park and gone up Boylston Street, hanging a left on Tremont Street and eventually ending in the Government Center area. We will update this story as details are confirmed by the city.

        Read more at: https://nesn.com/2018/10/red-sox-world-series-parade-latest-details-on-celebration-in-boston/

  12. Thanks TK.

    Plenty of rotation out there again today, especially in the cells near the South Coast this morning. Most of the strongest rotation has remained over water. Cell passing just west of the Vineyard and heading for Cape Cod is of most interest right now.

  14. Clouds have an ominous look to them from my classroom window, very similiar to what they looked like around here last Tuesday!

  15. It’s not especially intense, but the distinct area of rotation with that cell is passing right over Woods Hole now. Tornado warning continues. It has been on a bit of a strengthening trend the past several minutes.

  16. Now a cell heading through the western suburbs of Boston looking a little interesting. Just got tagged with one of those enhanced severe t-storm warnings mentioning a possible tornado.

  18. At the tail end of the storm, the clouds looked like they wanted to rotate!
    I was watching them without trying to alert or upset my students!

    Sun is out now in Middeborough!

    1. I wasn’t looking out and although the sun is no longer out here, there was a really odd appearance when it did come out about 40 minutes ago.

  20. Per the NWS, confirmed waterspout observed near Woods Hole, with a 65mph wind gust measured in that area. New tornado warning issued.

    The cell near Boston has weakened quite a bit, very weak rotation there now.

  24. More severe weather on the Cape. I know, before radar, better observations and technologies, but still it seems weird. Frankly, even during the summer on the Cape, I think. Tim Kelley from NECN seemed to explain the situation I think rather nicely – can’t remember exactly what was said. In any case, storms are picking up strength as they get near water. Don’t remember that happening back in the day – at least not so often. Sun in and out here in Sudbury. It doesn’t look like a fall, winter or even summer sky. Just kind of weird.

      1. I saw your comment on this prior and meant to ask. I am assuming you mean well before my lifetime. I recall even in early grade school being very aware of what a tornado was and hearing warnings for them. But how do we know we missed a lot? Wouldn’t the folks and authorities in the areas where there was considerable damage knew something had happened? I don’t know when the NWS was formed. It may be a whole lot newer than I think.

        1. I agree, Vicki. But maybe TK is right in the sense that people saw a waterspout but long before we were born talked about it but didn’t write it down, etc. Who knows.

            1. February 9, 1870 for the NWS development.
              Philip, anthropological climate change is indeed making conditions more favorable. Of course there will be those that do not think we can say that since we do not have NOAA data before 1870. But there are other means of getting said data. I been playing with some climate data in R. while I wait for my next job and I see a trend in stronger systems, but not an increase in storms. This includes tornado’s. You can get the data from Noaa and Geographical survey.

          2. I am sure you are right, Marjie, that well before w were born the frequency was not reported. From what I can find, we started keeping track in 1950. Dave Epstein has an article and mentioned that Eric F. did a piece on it. I’m trying to find it.

            I think tornadoes are just a part of the puzzle. And to your comment, Philip, I do believe you are right that the changing climate plays a part.

  25. In any case, is there a possibility of severe weather on Fri.? I am finally (hoping) to have a medical procedure done that day. Any ideas at this early date?

  26. When I’m not at work I’ll go over again later why we see more and miss fewer of what does occur.

    For the moment, in the short term this is the explanation for the past 7 days.

    Water temps above average. Upper air temps below. 2 systems right overhead with shear.

  28. Be very careful linking climate change to tornadoes… most credible climate scientists will tell you it can’t be done, and I agree. Way too much noise and uncertainty in the signal. Of all types of extreme weather, connections between climate change and severe convective weather are probably the least understood. IMO, for climate change messaging, far better to focus on what we know for sure versus something so unclear as tornadoes.

    In terms of our tornadoes in particular- Like TK, I think most of the “increase” is indeed due to more (and better trained) eyes on the radar and more eyes on the ground to verify things. The increase comes from weak and short lived tornadoes, very similar to how the number of Atlantic tropical cyclones has “increased” due to weak/short lived storms that we didn’t use to detect. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing though- this year is clearly an anomaly in terms of multiple late October tornado events.

    1. Thanks Wx. That all makes sense. Although I absolutely believe the climate is changing (noting I do not use the term global warming), I definitely do not think one thing can be linked to climate change. It’s why I said a piece of the puzzle…or one area that we might see anomalous weather events. We are warmer later in the year which would say to this non met that the season will extend and an extended season would allow more events??? Or is that an incorrect assumption.

      1. It’s certainly a logical enough assumption that a longer warm season would at least favor more convection and more opportunities for tornadoes. It’s not that there’s no link between CC and tornadoes, but the complexity of that particular problem is largely beyond our current understanding.

        1. I absolutely understand and thank you. I truly do believe there are many pieces to this.

          I find this discussion fascinating and appreciate all of the input.

          For what it is worth, I can roll my eyes at myself and often do. I have a tendency to think several steps ahead of where I probably should think. Sooo your comment prompted another thought….and this may be more rhetorical than not…..if linking tornadoes is beyond our understanding, does that mean not linking them is beyond our understanding also!

    1. Read NWS and that loop is a cold pool. Some showers scattered around. Got windy around here an hour or so ago and mostly cloudy. Looks like some stronger showers heading off the coast near Boston.

  30. Big rumble of thunder when at home for lunch a bit earlier.
    More rains.

    today’s total now up to 0.61 inch.

  31. Tornado recording started back in 1950 as we know it. But data does exist from before, in first responder records.
    Anthropological climate change is a complex situation, but we have all the data needed to show that it is happening and its happening at a rate much faster than it should be and its do to increase green house gases. Look at earth as one system like it is, it is all connected, Earth, water, air and fire. Look at the big picture and you clearly see it. If you seperate it like so many want to do, it makes it less clear.

    1. Well, there was also a 1939 Dust Bowl era sighting in Kansas of a house swept away with believed to be a young teenage girl and tiny terrier mutt along with a UFO sighting of an old hag on a broom moving from west to east. 😉

      1. Hmmmm – a Cairn terror is not a mutt…a terror yes, but no mutt. I know. We had one for 11 years 😉 😉 😉

  32. TK, Hope I didn’t start a conversation that I shouldn’t have. Just my observations.

    I did screw up on one thing. Didn’t sayCongrats Red Sox! We watched part of the game.We like the Red Sox but aren’t real sports fans. Am I going to get thrown off the blog?? 🙁

    1. You started an educational session. And it is all weather related. I’d bet my bottom dollar that you could never do anything to be thrown off the blog.

    2. You sparked a civil discussion. That’s one of the aims of this blog. And if people can disagree and learn from each other while remaining civil it makes it that much better.

  33. From Eric Fisher
    Another warm front special on Friday. Could be yet another out-of-season day to watch for some rotating storms in SNE.

    1. Thanks for info, JJ. Oh, goody. Nervous enough about medical procedure; and may not feel great enough to watch the weather. Oh, well. Just hope no lights go out!

    2. Plenty of helicity

      http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018102912/096/srh03.us_ne.png

      Nams just don’t go out quite far enough just yet.

      However, the GFS is showing virtually NO Cape at all. We need at least
      some like 250-500 joules to have a classic High Shear Low Cape (HSLC) Severe Weather Outbreak.

      We’ll see what other guidance shows as we get closer.

      My Euro service has picked up on this. Unfortunately, it is far enough out
      that I only have 12Z and 0Z maps, but you can readily see that it has
      picked up the threat.

      https://imgur.com/a/nFXwhiN

    1. Thanks Dr. Stupid.

      I don’t know if I mentioned this before, but when we were in High School
      myself a few friends had a job working at a chicken farm in an adjoining town.
      The owner used to pick us up and drive us home as this was before
      any of us had licenses and vehicles. Anyhow, we were working
      Halloween Day after school, and the owner, who was Hungarian and had a thick accent, gave us each a dozen eggs for Halloween Shenannigans and proceeded to drive us home.

      On the way home, one of my friends rolled down the back seat window and selected a nice egg and Tossed it out the window, NOT!! He missed from 2 feet away!! and the egg splattered all over the car interior. The owner yelled out at in a very loud and angry tone: “WHO’S THE STUPID?”

  36. I am a Grand Aunt to a nine pound one ounce little guy — my brother’s first grandchild, born on his half birthday. I know among Chris and Mac and my mom and dad that the heavens are smiling this afternoon!!!

  37. From Ryan Hanrahan
    @NWS Boston confirms a tornado touched down in Woods Hole. First tornado on the Cape in nearly 40 years.

  38. Thank you everyone for your input on Tornadoes. I could not understand how we were missing something like this but with the input here and what I have read, I now do understand. Thanks, Marjie, for starting the discussion. Thank you TK and WxWeather for taking the time to answer my many questions.

    1. As my long time friend and fellow forecaster says (he’s not on the blog), a lot of these events just went down as wind damage before because they were so brief that nobody even thought “tornado”, so they didn’t call in NWS to do surveys. And of course as previously stated lower quality radar and before cell phone cams and such dense population we just simply visually missed many of these, which were already hard to see in many cases due to rainfall, trees, etc. .. Our tornado counts have gone up because we “see” more, not necessarily because there are more. Although even with everything taken into account 2018 is likely a very exceptional year for New England. But stand-out years happen when events just happen to cluster by atmospheric chance. We could go next year with under 5 tornadoes for the entire calendar year in New England. Or maybe it’ll be above normal, or exacly normal. We will see. 🙂

  39. We got to be close to 30 tornadoes total for 2018 in New England. CT has 8 tornadoes and we have had number 9 in southeastern part of the state in New London county.
    I believe MA is up 8 tornadoes for the year.

    1. Yes in all of this VT and northern NH have seen practically nothing as they have been in a drought, both tornado-wise, and precip-wise.

  42. Those downpours today seemed more like mid-summer than the last few days of October. Lately our weather has been unreal…and I bet unprecedented.

    2. No, it’s not unprecedented. It’s not even really unreal either, to be perfectly honest.

      As my friend said a while ago while we were chatting, “wait long enough and every area will see an event out of ‘the box'”. Some events like this recurrence period just happens to exceed our period of record. The # of tornadoes in October this year is one of those.

  43. That AO just not seeming to want to break. Looks to remain rather positive through the month of November. Last few runs of the longer range predictions have shown it going towards neutral/negative by start of december. The exception is the 8th to 13.
    The PNA Positive first week of November, then turns neutral then positive again later in the month.

  44. 22 is the official tornado number now in New England this year according to Eric F. who just posted this blog on Southern New England Tornadoes within the last hour.

    Well timed with all the tornado discussion here today!

    https://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/10/29/a-big-year-for-southern-new-england-tornadoes/

    He agrees that we are detecting these storms better than ever now, and also that there is not conclusive evidence to link these increased occurrences to climate change.

    One thing that Eric alludes to and I was actually going to post earlier myself is that there were also a lot of storms with wind damage in the 1950-1975 timeframe that got mislabeled as tornadoes. In many cases, the damage was not tornadic in nature but straight line/ downburst related wind damage. I had read in another article that there was one year in that time period where 26 tornadoes were reported in New England but that number is believed to be suspect.

    All in all, ironic that this has actually been a year with the one of the lowest number of recorded tornadoes across the US lower 48 states. We have been the exception, not the rule.

    2. “out of the box” event. This is not part of a trend. That is clear as day.

      I think the early to mid 1950s were the period when many wind events were falsely labeled as tornadoes. Later in the 50s onward it was very likely the other way around.

    3. Eric and I had this discussion on FB today. I love that he also addressed it in his discussion. He is easily one of my all time favorites if not my all time…except for Pete who will always hold a corner of my heart

      The tornadoes may or may not be part of a trend. Certainly It is far too early to know so I agree completely. The heat record set worldwide every single year of this century is a trend. The rising ocean waters are a trend. We will see where the other trends are set.

      Suffice to say. Climate is changing. Is it cyclical or manmade? We will see. However, cleaning up our indisputable mess is an absolute

  45. Forget what I said about the pattern around Veterans Day. I think we may have to go through one more ridge cycle before we flip the pattern around November 15 back to cold/dry. Not high confidence on this yet but working on it.

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