Thursday Forecast

71 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
A cold front slowly moves into the region today and sits across southern New England through early Saturday as a couple waves of low pressure move along it, resulting in unsettled weather to start off the month of November. The most numerous rain shower activity will be Friday and early Saturday. High pressure moves in with dry weather Sunday then starts to exit Monday with some cloudiness returning. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Lows 46-54, coolest northern areas, mildest south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 55-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely early then clearing. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
Unsettled weather November 6-7. Drier weather returns November 8-10. Temperatures above normal to start the period, then cooling back to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
Dry start and end to the period with unsettled weather possible at mid period. Temperatures near to above normal early in the period may turn colder thereafter.

71 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.

    November is set for a very warm (and wet) opening week. It’s not totally clear (to me at least) whether this warm week sets the tone for a warm month or if we reserve by the midway point. There will be some good cold building to our northwest, so I think it’s more likely we at least go back to more normal fall temperatures around 11/10-11/15 or so, similar to what TK has indicated.

      1. Thank you, WxWeather. I liken it to one season trying to readjust to to the next. It is just doing it later.

    1. My daughter and I said the very same.

      The October sky this year has been amazing with all of the different cloud cover.

  4. Thank you, TK. I thought I’d lost signal when I saw it was still 54 this am. Nice start to the day and perfect for pulling in the Halloween decorations.

  5. Thanks TK !

    More of this weather, more, more, more !!

    It helps because, for me, winter starts Sunday. If it’s dark by 5pm, I’m in winter mode 🙂

    1. I’ll take the earlier morning light over the early darkness. Going bank to EST is my favorite weekend of the year! 😀

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    If there is a way to screw up this Winter, I am sure it will happen.

    I am feeling rather Blah about everything, including the weather.

    re: Halloween
    We had a down year. Only 105 Trick or Treatsters compared to 132 last year.
    Yes, I keep count. I count everything. What enjoyed counting most were the cards at the blackjack tables. 😀

    1. Remind me never to play cards with you 🙂

      We alternate between here and Uxbridge so the cousins can go out together. That made this our second Halloween here and we had over 100 but I lost count. It was an awesome night weatherwise. I sat out for a bit on the deck after. The breeze in the trees made them sound like nature’s wind chimes.

        2. Been like this for years. I do believe I wore a light jacket last year. But our streets were lined with adults and children well after everyone had finished the trick or treating. They just stayed outside.

    2. compared to my probably 2, I am surprised that the thing of Candy I had left out, most was still in it. Oh well, more for me. the places that I use to go to, have almost nothing now. use to do it around my Grandparents neighborhood, many people use to do it, the streets would be crowded with kids. When I was getting back from the hospital, I saw one group of kids.

      In terms of card games, I like Texas holdem myself. Pretty good at it. usually just for fun. Brothers and I use to gamble house chores. When it came to friends, mix of playing for money and just for fun. Lets just say I won a good amount lol. I also know when people are playing the deck and cheating. Went to a casino two times, One time I won like 150, the other I called out the dealer for putting out 3 tens out to people and 2 tens out on the table. Lets just say everyone got their money back and the guy was fired lol.

  7. This rain Saturday is really going to mess me up for the next two weeks costing me money & missed opportunities.

  8. TK, any estimate on when rain shuts of in the Worcester area on Saturday? Trying to pin down what time frame “early” means for work crew scheduling. Thanks as always!

  9. Thank you, TK.

    The grays continue to be frequent. This does, however, lead to pastel foliage, as someone else said.

  10. Help!

    I have been reading whatever I can about the AMO just to educate myself. Does anyone have a link to non-scientific article/paper/whatever that you could recommend on this subject. I know it’s a Longshot. Thanks.

  11. So the idea of possible rotating storms tomorrow night into Saturday AM
    still appears to be on the table:

    Excerpt from recent Norton NWS discussion:

    There is, though, potential for some scattered thunderstorms Friday
    night into Saturday morning as dewpoints remain in the upper 50s and
    low 60s with enough instability to support a few storms. The best
    instability looks to be through Saturday morning with CAPE values
    200-400 J/kg (ECMWF) though there remains considerable model
    differences. 0-6 km shear values over 50 kts and low level SRH over
    100 ms would suggest the potential for any storms that do form to
    have some rotation with them.

    1. Looks like a classic High-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environment.
      We shall see. We’ve seen one too many of these set ups this year!

  14. From Eric Fisher
    Looks pretty wild Saturday morning. Strong dynamics yield a burst of very heavy rain, very gusty winds, thunderstorms (possibly some rotating ones), and then rapid cooling as a rush of chilly air comes in behind it.

  15. When would the potentially most severe weather be tomorrow in Framingham, Sudbury area be? Morning, afternoon, tomorrow night or Sat. morning?

  16. I would say overnight Friday into Sat am.
    Be interested to see what the EURO is showing on this thunderstorm potential

    2. It shows all the parameters for thunderstorms, but not quite as
      robust as previous runs. That’s why I didn’t post any charts.

      If you want to see any, please let me know. 😀

  17. When the leaves are down and raked then bring on the snow. Severe weather season this year going well into the fall.

  20. The 12z GFS and Euro look quite different at 240 hours (11/11). GFS is cold and dry with a storm missing us to the south out to sea. The Euro is milder with an inside runner and rain. Blend the two and we have a benchmark snowstorm 🙂

  21. I hope were saying top 10 snowiest winter on record but that does not look likely.
    Enough with the rain.

    1. The GFS loves to show that type of anafrontal snow in the long range but it rarely if ever happens. The precip is usually over by the time the cold air floods in.

      I am more intrigued with the 11/11 system it has going to our south. At 6z it was further north and produced interior snow for much of SNE. The Euro is further north and west. Something in between the two could be interesting.

  23. By the way, it has been absolutely gorgeous here in CT today! Sunshine and short sleeve weather. Just hit 71 in the last hour at Hartford/Brainard!

    1. Wow and I thought it was warm here. We hit 66 at one point. I just noticed kids are playing outside in tee shirts. We have not had the sun though.

  24. JRW & SSK…
    My current estimate for rain shut-down on Saturday is between noon and 3PM. That’s an estimate with a 3-hour window and may need to be adjusted in either direction but a slight bit.

  25. Not a great forecast by me today. Too general. I totally under-estimated how nice it would be in the southeastern areas. A nice bonus for those there, either way. 🙂 We’ve been overcast with occasional showers here in the NW suburbs of Boston.

  26. TK,

    Do you think there is a chance for any HSLC type severe weather, with or without rotation, tomorrow night into Saturday AM?

    Thanks

    1. I am slightly concerned about Friday night. Will examine that further…
      I am less concerned about that Saturday morning but we could have a potent squall line (for this time of year), or at least an attempt at one.

    2. NWS, in their indomitable manner, keeps it in the forecast.

      Excerpt from Taunton NWS office:

      2) Low Risk for an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two

      The overall threat for severe weather Friday into Saturday morning
      is rather low. This is a result of limited instability across the
      region. However…as we often see this time of year the jet
      dynamics are quite impressive and there is quite a bit of low level
      shear with both shortwaves. Therefore…the low risk for an
      isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. Given the amount of low
      level helicity…the threat of a brief tornado is low but a non-zero
      threat.

      1. These events are more common in the autumn than we “knew” before, and this all ties into what we have talked about here during the last several weeks.

        1. I agree and understand. So, it’s something to monitor, but
          not get too overly concerned at this point?

  27. JPD, there was an interesting discussion on NPR today with regard to ocean temperatures which you have been monitoring (thank you) lately. I have to find the name of the individual that was being interviewed. I was driving so could not write it down, but it sounded something like Moe Tarman???

    Anyway, species of fish are moving north due to the warming of waters further north than previous. Lobsters are become more scarce south of here and even off of the Massachusetts coasts. They are plentiful in the Gulf of Maine. Fishermen are making a fortune which led to a discussion of how something such as warming can create a positive only to be followed by a negative because we tend to overreact.

    I didn’t realize that the Gulf of Maine is warming faster than any other body of water on earth. Also the Bay of Fundy. https://www.pressherald.com/2017/05/21/gulf-of-maine-will-become-too-warm-for-many-key-fish-report-says/

    In Japan squid are moving further north. There are some interesting links online — too many to post here. The danger is that the larvae (perhaps not correct term) need consistent warmth so that many are dying. Squid of course will not be the only ocean creatures that struggle.

    One of the key points was also that the ocean is the world’s regulator.

    1. Good article and good people, I know the people involved in this research. You are correct to call it Larvae, it is the Zooplankton stages in which is crucial. But I will say that the Lobster is no longer found south of the Cape and Islands. They are just not there. The other problem for Lobsters is other crustaceans and fish moving in. The population of Lobster is not do to the current water temps but do to predator loss in the Gulf of Maine. The Lobster habitat is also not just shrinking from the south but also from the north and east and west. Lobster is very picky when it comes to habitat selection. Very picky when it comes to the zooplankton stage which is delicate.

  28. We are having the invasion of the ladybug. I came in front door quickly because I saw them on the frame. And even dozen came in with me

  31. 62 degrees at 0600 EDT.

    Darkest commute of the year. Sunrise this morning is at 7:19. First period starts at 7:20! Yikes!

    Thanks, TK. Good morning, everyone!

Comments are closed.