Saturday Forecast

63 Comments

10:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
No big changes for this update but I wanted to highlight 2 things. 1) We did luck out a bit on what could have been a more significant severe weather threat early this morning. We experienced some local flooding from torrential downpours and there may be some spot areas of minor wind damage that occurred with the passage of some of these. 2) We are not going to escape a significant wind event this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts above 40 MPH in most of the region will strip a lot of foliage from trees but may also strip branches and in some cases take down entire trees. This presents a danger for travel, so be aware if you are out and about. There will be a power outage threat of course, which goes with this kind of event. But this won’t last long and after we get rid of the winds that announce the change in air masses we are in for a beautiful day on Sunday as high pressure dominates the weather. But the nice weather won’t hang around long either as our active pattern rolls on and as high pressure retreats to the northeast on Monday, in will come another bout of unsettled weather. Another push of warm air will be part of this unsettled stretch that arrives Monday and lasts into Wednesday before the next cold front arrives. Will detail the unsettled period in tomorrow’s update. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with episodic rain showers including downpours through midday, ending west to east the first half of the afternoon, followed by a cloud/sun mix with a clearing trend. Temperatures fall into the 50s, eventually the upper 40s by late day. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, then W increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH likely and gusts above 50 MPH possible, favoring higher elevations and open areas.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-39. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts through evening, gradually diminishing overnight.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH morning, light variable afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32 interior lower elevations, 32-39 elsewhere. Wind calm.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain and drizzle. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s daytime but may rise to the 60s late.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely AM. Breaking clouds PM. Temperatures start out 50s and/or 60s, fall to 40s. Becoming windy.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Dry and chilly November 8 and start of November 9. Wet end to November 9 and rain showers into November 10 with brief warm-up then turning colder through November 11-12. Should be sunny for November 11 but may turn cloudy by November 12.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Keep an eye out early in the period for a sneaky snow and/or rain event. Fair weather follows. Temperatures near to below normal.

63 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Long range, like TK alluded to above, sneaky snow/rain event mid month but there are signs for it to warms back up again for the second half of the month. In terms of Tornado’s, we might not know if there have been more tornado’s (touching down) now than there were way back. But we do know that the conditions for this severe weather will increase as the PV becomes weaker with the poles getting warmer with less difference between the poles and the mid-latitudes allowing for more weaker AO years

    1. I don’t think we’ll be warming up for the entire second half of the month. What I do think is we’re in an oscillating pattern. October was more half and half, November seems to want to be more like a week to 10 days one way, similar the other. We’ll see how it shakes out though because I’m a little worried about mass model error late in the period and I also think the Euro Weeklies may be “weak”. Something is missing and I think the answer has the initials “MJO”.

  3. I cannot believe how often it has rained in the past 45 days. How much rain has the area had? I am guessing North Reading has seen 10 inches or more.

    1. It’s regional. VT is in a near drought. The rainfall in this area has been above normal, but not excessively so.

        1. We’ve had frequent systems, but it has really rained about as often or slightly more often than the long term average would indicate it does.

  6. Thanks TK! And thanks for your analysis on the earlier post re: overall tornado activity. As I said earlier increased awareness can be a mixed blessing! I definitely run to the basement much more these days 😉

  7. According to Eric, it has rained every Saturday. That sneaky snow event would fit in nicely for two weeks from today, the 17th…a Saturday. 🙂

  8. Interesting wavy front…

    Very warm all night, brief cool down, now back in the 60s

    Awaiting the cold front and the howling wind. S wind already increasing.

  9. In the bucket load of salt category 12z GFS delivers first widespread accumulating snow for SNE around the 15th of the month,

  10. Was actually very pleasant at my sons soccer game in Mansfield CT late this am. 60 degrees, calm wind and the rain had shut off. Then the squall line moved through about 40 minutes ago and the wind went from 0 to 40 mph almost instanteously. It’s roaring pretty good now.

    1. Of course …. it’s dependent on a triple extension low from east of Newfoundland extending back to New England ……

      1. Careful of details. Just the overall pattern, but I don’t think it would be around hour 276. It would be before and/or after that.

    1. Yes, somewhere around there. It was enough to require shoveling.
      If I recall it was like 4 or 5 inches, at least out here in JP.

      1. I remember on November 3, 1989, we had sleet in the afternoon. Why such a random date/memory? I was 14 years old and my mom and I were driving back from the Lowell Humane Society, as we had just adopted our first cat, a beautiful, 6 week old black kitten, I named Cassie. She lived until she was nearly 17 years old.

        1. Hi flowergirl. Nice to see you here. Your memory is attached to something special. I think it was 1989 that we also had the fairly significant thanksgiving snow.

  13. And just like that the wind machine has cranked. As Mark indicated, blowing pretty good out there. I went into a store and it was fine, when I came out the wind practically
    blew me across the parking lot. What an instant ramp up !
    Btw, was 62 here a bit ago, now down to 60 as I assume it will start its decline.

  16. Well doesn’t that beat all. We finally have color and a good portion of the leaves will be blown away. Oh well…..such is life!

  18. Grand total rain for whole event, including yesterday was 2.03 inches here.

    Temp down to 56 with dp 47.

  20. 2.66” of rain the total here in Coventry CT. Well on our way to our 6th straight month of well above normal precip. Temp has fallen to 48 here after a balmy morning.

  21. The bad news is that my entire lawn is covered with about 4 inches of leaves. Good news is that the trees are now completely bare. It officially looks like winter now, minus the snow. Perhaps we can take care of that issue if the GFS has anything to say about it.

  22. Watching the reports from Mount Washington. So far sustained winds “only” 69, with gusts to 74. Temp 25 with a wind chill of 1.

    Observatory is expecting sustained winds as high as 100 with gusts over 120. We’ll see if that materializes.

    1. In Bartlett now. We had 15 minutes of wind and that was about it. News up here says we can expect a trace of snow tonight.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    It hasn’t rained in at least 90 minutes. We need more rain. I’m parched. The soil is dry as a bone. Drought conditions persist …

    Of course, we’re far removed from drought. In fact, the soil is so saturated with water that it gets harder for it to absorb more rain. You can tell by the water-logged lawns and meadows. I haven’t seen it this water-logged in quite some time.

  24. Nearly 17,000 without power in MA so far. Basically the entire event is unfolding about as expected and luckily we avoided the severe weather that took place upstream overnight. Now it’s high winds for a few hours then things settle down.

    Days like yesterday / today are a big reason why weather fascinates me. The changes. 🙂 This is why it bugs me when a weathercaster will say “it’s supposed to be ‘x’ degrees today” etc etc. No. Long term averages are born of what…? Changing weather! This isn’t San Diego. This isn’t Jakarta Indonesia. This is approximately 41.5 to 43 degrees N latitude. The weather changes! Alot! 🙂

  25. Biggest November snowfalls I can remember in my life Thanksgiving 1989 and Nov. 7th -8th of 2012. A week after Sandy a good chunk of CT had 6-10 inches of snow.

  26. That Veterans Day snow event mentioned above was Tuesday Nov 11 1987. It was in the 20s most of that day (a bit warmer southeast). The snow was fluffy away from the coast and was generally 4-6 inches in the suburbs. I can’t recall what Boston had off the top of my head.

  27. TK, you are right. Today is really a weather person’s (whether professional or simply a nut like myself) dream. Today looks A LOT like a day in Dublin or Edinburgh. Started out with rain showers and low-lying clouds. Then, as the low pressure pushed east the wind arrived, some sun, cumulus clouds racing by, threat of showers still in the air as instability persists.

    San Diego is beautiful. But, if I was a weatherman there I’d be bored out of my mind and would secretly be following blogs like WHW to get excited about something.

        1. Thanks, Coastal. I’ll be interested to know if they are able to maintain the snow if it rains.

          Jackson is near and dear to me. We alternated between Jack Frosts, Jackson, and Carroll Reeds, North Conway, for our ski equipment and clothes. The covered bridge leading into Jackson….

          And we skied Tyrol just above Jackson. It closed years ago when the ski areas started to struggle. I suspect befoee your time and Marks.

        2. Looked like they lost a lot of snow in the higher elevations that last few days. Check out this shot from the summit of Washington on Wednesday vs yesterday….

          https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/1058444790969368576?s=20

          Hope to do some hiking if conditions are ok though if there is snow I would not think twice about bringing the skis. If it’s raining, well you’ll probably find me at the bar at Moat Mountain 🙂

          1. Sorry Vicki but I think that’s before my time. 🙂

            I just tried Margarita’ Grill in Bartlett. Great food! Moat is a great place as well.

            1. I’m sure it is. It was off the road to Wildcat just above Jackson….a long drive up to the base. There were condos all along the road. I would suspect the condos are still there and the mountain may still be there too.

              Sorry….I took a detour down memory lane. Have a wonderful time. You chose a spectacular area.

  30. The wind has been rather underwhelming here this afternoon. Was hoping the wind would blow all the leaves into the woods or the neighbors yard. That didn’t happen!

    1. Our highest gust has been 20. About same as a week ago. It seems the wind never gets to what they forecast. And I do know there is a spread. And Mother Nature will probably now blow my house into the next town

  31. Update from Mount Washington:

    Sustained 96 mph wind gusting to 107 mph!
    Temp 19 with a wind chill of -10

  33. Given the list of wind damage reports from yesterday’s event, it was a well-forecast event that verified very nicely, unfortunately for some that lost trees and power.

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