Tuesday Forecast

106 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
Those exercising their right to vote today and otherwise traveling about to work, school, or wherever, will have to deal with unsettled weather today as a low pressure system tracks northwest of the region and drags a warm front across the area slowly during the day then a faster-moving cold front from west to east early this evening. Between this departing low and an approaching area of high pressure will come a period of wind on Wednesday, though it will be fairly mild with the cooler air slow to arrive. It will take until Thursday for that, a cooler but tranquil day under high pressure, and setting up a cold night with mainly clear sky and light wind with low dew point temps. After the chilly start Friday, clouds advance quickly and it will be wet by later in the day, but this system will be moving right along and exiting early Saturday, which, like last Saturday, will turn quite windy. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle morning. Cloudy with scattered then numerous rain showers arriving from west to east this afternoon, some with heavy downpours and a slight risk of thunder. Watch for local street flooding and also slippery areas where there are leaves on roads and walks. Highs 60-67 occurring late-day. Wind light variable morning, S increasing to 10-20 MPH this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers ending. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH evening, W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind light NW to light variable.
FRIDAY: Early sun then clouding over. Chance of rain by late afternoon and night. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SATURDAY: Early rain shower possible otherwise sun/clouds, becoming windy. Temperatures steady in the 40s through day falling to 30s night.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
Veterans Day Sunday November 11 will be bright and chilly as high pressure dominates. The November 12-13 period is being watched for unsettled weather in which 1 or 2 low pressure systems will likely impact the region. Neither look major, but it may be cold enough so that we’ll be seeing some snow involved along with rain for at least parts of the region. Fair, chilly weather dominates after that.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
This is expected to be a drier period with temperatures starting below normal followed by some moderation.

106 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Today is the halfway point between the autumnal equinox and winter solstice.

    45 days past the equinox, 45 days to the solstice.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I am getting depressed about the Winter prospects. Oh well, as my SIL would always say: “Whatta Ya Going to do?”

    Dr. Cohen’s blog is out. Haven’t a chance to read just yet.

    1. Oh well. Usually Mother Nature makes up for it the following winter. Hopefully 2019-20 will continue that trend. 🙂

      I may be remembering incorrectly, but I seem to recall that “dud” winters tend to have more ice events as well.

  5. From Judah:
    I just checked the Rutgers Global Snow Lab site for the official tally and Eurasian October #snow cover extent is considerably higher than my own estimate (though still lower than most recent years). Maybe time to gas up the snowblower!

      1. Or get the shovels out. My son in law sold the snowblower that he never used anyway and put the money toward a riding mower. I wonder if it has a plow attachment 🙂

        1. I used a snowblower once many years ago and never used it again. It was harder than it looked. I use a shovel which for me is much easier in the long run.

          What is interesting, is that you still need to shovel out some space for the blower before using if I remember the instructions correctly. 😉

          1. I agree. I always loved to shovel until I injured my rotator cuff and that took care of that. SIL much prefers shoveling. The one time he let snow get ahead of him, our snowblower would not move it. He was lucky to have a neighbor who let him use his.

            1. I had a rotator cuff twice and had to go to PT both times. It took awhile but with PT the pain eventually went away.

              1. PT also helped me. I just have to be careful of what I do or it will be uncomfortable for a week or so. I figure I have put in my time shoveling and as much as I enjoy it, it is not worth the alternative.

  6. I heard that there were a number of spin outs this morning. I assume due to fallen leaves on wet pavements?

      1. Was just able to read your entire comment section now. Busy with an early conf call ans voting. And so you did.

  8. Thanks TK
    Way too early to be depressed about a winter that has not even started. I don’t think we see way below normal snowfall.

  9. Winter 2014-15 comes to mind when the snow lovers were depressed until the blizzard in late January and we all know what happened after that. Too bad the storms tracked a little too far east to give me a dumping of snow.

      1. Closer to 2011-12, if anything. But that 2014-15 winter is probably one of those “once in two hundred years” events anyway.

  10. I find it amazing as to how the foliage turned so colorful almost overnight all over the city of Boston. Very little green left now. 🙂

    1. We did the same – peak was just before the wind which blew a good portion of the leaves off of the trees.

      1. That gave me food for thought. We had been having heavy frosts for weeks. But, unlike what would be a typical October of old, they were followed by warmth. I think you have made sense with regard to why foliage is now later than it was. It is light dependent to be sure but was also dependent on a consistent cold. We had the hard frosts early and not so much leading up to the peak. It seems that the change may be adapting to the lower light requirement more and frost less.

    1. Umm, that is the 6Z run. 12Z run of that model not available yet.

      The 12z regular GFS does not have this feature.

  12. My bad on that one. Probably should have realized it was a 6z run when it was showing that amount of snow.

  13. 12z regular GFS though is back with a vengeance showing a major coastal storm Tues-Wed (after showing a complete miss at 0z). Too warm for SNE but heavy snow for portions of upstate NY and NNE:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018110612&fh=174

    Very curious to see the 12z FV3 GFS run after the 6z run showed this…..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018110606&fh=192

    TK has noted that the FV3 has been performing better.

    1. it has but we also have to remember how tropicaltidbits includes sleet. When comparing these maps to the other program I have, it shows much less snow.

      1. Not expecting big snow here but liking the potential at least for the first accumulating snow of the season.

  14. John Kassell‏ @JPKassell

    The UKMET seasonal ensemble prediction system is sharing similar insights with the EMCWF seasonal package focusing on a backloaded winter, with above average snowfall across the lower Plains to the Great Lakes/Northeast during the Jan-Feb period. Maps: @BenNollWeather

    https://twitter.com/JPKassell/status/1059603565377859584

    Here is a direct link to the UKMET snow anomaly maps by month:
    https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet

    Taken verbatim, the UKMET has for the New England:

    December – above normal snow
    January – below normal snow
    February – well above normal snow
    March – below normal snow

    Seems February could be our month to really cash in this winter? Eric F. was alluding to this as well.

    1. IF and BIG IF the UKMENT verifies snowfall to me should not be too far from normal if not a bit above.

  16. For those worried the UKMET is showing a much more favorable pattern for us and blend it with the what the EURO is showing and thats some what what I think is going to happen this winter.

  17. Remember – a cold and dry pattern does not mean a snowless pattern. You can end up with an average or even above average winter snowfall with overall below normal precip.

    We could have a 12-18″ powder bomb with only 0.75″ melted equivalent precip. It only takes a couple of those and you are well on your way to a normal snow winter.

    2. So far every parameter I’ve seen (and have confidence in) tells me even with cold the snowfall will not be above normal anywhere around here.

      1. Of course and why would it be any other way.

        Will we make 30 inches? 😀 😀 😀 😀

        Probably NOT!

    1. The rain cleared out the fairly dense fog here. Temp went up a couple of degrees also. We have had 0.26 inch of rain today. I’m afraid to check the hole in our lawn.

  19. 12Z Euro has a BIG storm system on the 13th. Only problem is, it’s an INSIDE RUNNER(*!&@*#^!&*@#T^&*!^@&#%^!@%#!@&#%!#%!@&#

    1. One would think that with a snow pack like that, some of the cold air
      would spill down into New England?????????????

      1. Absolutely. Our problem this winter (if there is one) will not be cold air availability, it will be getting those southern stream systems up the coast.

      2. We’ll have no problem getting cold air into New England. We already did it in Oct, and we’ll be doing it again next week. But you can’t do it in a transitional pattern when the ridge is just off the East Coast as we have now. That will change in several days.

  25. Below average temps yes
    below average precip possibly
    below average snowfall/ice. no.

    Also, the EPS has any where from 0 to 12 inches of snow fall on us. so need to get closer to the event.. This weekend is step one and areas of northern New England could see a decent moderate snowfall.

  26. 2018-2019 Winter Forecast from John Bagioni. He is a local independent meteorologist here in CT with a number of private clients

    https://yourfuelsolution.com/winter-weather-forecast-2018-2019/

    I share the following excerpts:

    Bagioni notes that weak Modoki El Niños are famously likely to produce very active storm seasons. “I would bet on more than normal nor’easters,” he says, “which implies at least normal snow amounts, if not above normal snowfall.”

    Bagioni explains, “If we do see a negative NAO winter, we could see a couple of slow-moving powerful nor’easters with significant disruptive effects especially from the Mid-Atlantic northward into the NYC to Hartford to Boston corridor.”

    “Given the fact that history indicates high latitude blocking and a negative NAO are more likely during Modoki El Niño events, we will have to be on the lookout for such extremes, but will not likely see them coming until within about three weeks of the occurrence,” Bagioni cautions.

    1. Of course, these are pretty generic statements. Too strong a -NAO and we are cold and dry, kiss ’em goodbye while the mid-Atlantic gets pummeled.

      It seems the state of the NAO will play a big part in the sensible weather outcomes this winter. Whether or not we have one, it’s strength, placement, etc will play a role and we just won’t know until a few weeks in advance. Hence the wildcard when it comes to snowfall amounts. I am happy at least we should have the cold air around to work with. That’s half the equation.

      1. I was there this Past Sunday to pick up my pass. Think I will bring my ski’s this weekend just in case.

  29. So, perception example. Think Boston was wet in October? They ranked 3rd in the # of days with rain, but their precipitation total for the month was actually BELOW average by 0.16 inch. 😉

    1. I think people think it was wet because of how it was distributed by the days. Not so much that it rained a bunch of inches.

      1. That’s exactly the case, although we do have quite a contrast from a surplus closer to the South Coast to a major drought in northern VT.

  30. EURO

    UKMET was already rather similar to the euro and CANIPS seasonal outputs shifted to the EURO thoughts.

    it seems like its american vs international weather models at it again……

      1. of course and the next week or so will be big like we talked about, but the CANIPS was very close to the CFS, it made a huge change, which has my eye.

    1. Could be, although that would be almost monsoon like.

      No matter what, it’s been a wet period. Also very gray and dismal at times. I’m disappointed as the season I look forward to the most – autumn – has produced some nice days, but a whole lot of blah and rain. I don’t mind if it’s cold and dry this winter and doesn’t snow much, so long as it doesn’t continue to rain every other day. It’s worse than Seattle at this point, because the rain we’re getting has been heavy, doesn’t let up for hours and seems to be a recurring theme over and over and over again.

    2. Vicki, I have had over 35″ since June 1. Sounds right to me. We are well on our way towards our 6th straight month of well above normal rainfall.

  34. I would not worry much about the seasonal snow forecast. IMO it’s still totally up in the air. There’s never been much confidence in this winter forecast, and seasonal snow forecasts are usually low-skilled anyways. If I had to guess for this year I would say near average snow but roughly equal chances of below, near normal, or above.

    1. Thank you. That is my mindset. I like to enjoy the day, have fun thinking about the future but it is what it is.

    1. Saw that. The FV3 puts the Euro fantasy snowmaps to shame! Going to have to remember that this winter. I am not sure what is skewing the totals so badly…perhaps the 10:1 ratios? factoring in sleet? convective feedback? Not sure.

      1. Its a mix of all three, the FV3 might perform better in some marks but in terms of those three, I feel like its much worse

  39. From Ben Noll
    As for the ECMWF-EPS, there is quite a bit of ensemble spread on the right side of the forecast mean track next Tue-Wed … a track farther offshore could allow more cold air to wrap into the system (like FV3-GFS).
    ECMWF ensemble snowfall: many members are dropping a few inches across the interior Northeast, a handful have snow to the coast.
    Next week will be interesting!

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