Wednesday Forecast

40 Comments

7:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
Departing low pressure and approaching high pressure will result in an increasing breeze but dry and fairly mild weather during today. Cooler air arrives with high pressure Thursday, which will be a nice day. A chilly night as high pressure is overhead Thursday night but this high quickly departs Friday as low pressure approaches from the southwest in a pattern somewhat similar to late last week, with a period of wet weather, followed by a weekend that is damp turning dry and windy Saturday and fair and more tranquil Sunday, which is Veterans Day. Though some areas hold their observances the next day, there are some cities and towns doing it on the Sunday, including Woburn, and the conditions will be dry but chilly for those ceremonies. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind light NW to light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-36. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Early sun then clouding over. Chance of rain by late afternoon and night. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusty late in the day.
SATURDAY: Early rain shower possible otherwise sun/clouds, becoming windy. Temperatures steady in the 40s through day falling to 30s night.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
The next in a series of storm systems will impact the region late November 12 to November 14, with a risk of snow/mix/rain from the night of November 12 into November 13. It’s very early but any mix/snow would favor the interior if it were to occur with rain more likely closer to the coast. A much colder air mass arrives as the system departs with snow showers possible November 14 then fair weather November 15. Weaker system may bring rain/snow showers by November 16 but timing uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
A less stormy pattern here, with dry weather to start and end the period and a minor system with light precipitation mid period. Temperatures below normal.

40 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. JJ regarding the post you made this morning, I could see a scenario in which some measurable snow makes it to the coast. I don’t think that storm is going to be as potent as depicted on the FV3, and forget those snow maps. Even the ECMWF snow maps, which generally suck, are better than FV3 at the moment. They need major tweaking.

  4. The trees looked absolutely spectacular just after sunrise this morning. I heard that the colors in NNE last month were quite dull. In past years it is usually the opposite.

    1. I thought NH looked very colorful from pictures. I always thought NH had the most vibrant colors in autumn….my bias perhaps. York, Maine, not so much. VT areas my son was in from Stowe to Bennington and around were not great either.

  7. Thanks TK.

    12z GFS showing a loaded system for the Nor’easter Tuesday/Wednesday. Storm bombs out from 989mb east of Boston to 960mb in New Brunswick! Verbatim would be heavy rain ending as some snow showers in SNE but significant snows further inland across Upstate NY and NNE.

    Surface Map at 1PM Tuesday:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018110712&fh=150

    Snowmap at 10:1 ratios:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018110712&fh=186

  10. Foliage:

    It was variable everywhere. Very limited areas were truly dull. What really happened was that the peak was spread into 2 or 3 peaks due to trees’ reaction to past and current conditions. This stuff is right up my alley as an agricultural meteorologist.

  11. 62.1 by my station but others around are a degree or two lower. Mine is in direct sun.

    We had a stretch like this three years ago that I remember well. With my ever presence happy tears, I recall Tom had commented that he was ready for cold. I commented that we’d moved a chair to the front lawn where Mac could sit in the sun. Tom, you then said, if it helped Mac….you wished for warm weather to stay 🙂 Rainshine, you said the very same thing a bit later ……

    WHW is indeed a family.

  14. For the 3rd run in a row, the 12Z Euro advertising a RAINORAMA all over
    New England on the 13th, despite what any other model indicates.

    2. It’s way west of all the other guidance. Low tracks up the spine of the Appalachians.

      It does look like it is gearing up for something along the east coast at hour 240 though…

      1. Yes, it certainly does. 500 and 300 mb winds look favorable, however, for SNE, 850mb temps are marginal at best and combined with the usual boundary layer issues this time of year, me thinks it would primarily be inland and/or NNE snows.

        But it is 10 days out. Worth watching for sure.

        This one will probably end up OTS as a precursor to what
        we’ll experience most of the Winter.

        1. Just keep in mind this is November, not January or February. We may have had some cold already and some more coming, but the water is still warm.

          1. Was that meant to be addressed to Me? Curious as
            I stated above: 850mb temps are marginal at best and combined with the usual boundary layer issues this time of year, me thinks it would primarily be inland and/or NNE snows.

            Right now the SST off of our coast is running
            2 degrees above average.

            https://imgur.com/a/Xlyr9Aw

    1. I like them because I love frontal passages. Something about the edges of air masses…………….. One of my favorite things about weather. Boundaries have always fascinated me.

  16. I suspect you all know that this is an extra special Veterans Day. This year the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month will commemorate the 100th anniversary of WWI

    Churches and individuals are being asked to ring bells 21 times at 11:00 Sunday. The first link is the explanation. The second a link to the app that will automatically toll 21 times at 11:00 am

    https://www.worldwar1centennial.org/index.php/communicate/press-media/wwi-centennial-news/4668-wwi-commission-announces-bells-of-peace-on-armistice-centennial.html

    Below is a link to download the bells of peace app. Under the screen shots are links to the app specific to your device.

    https://www.worldwar1centennial.org/commemorate/event-map-system/ace-smartphone-app.html

    1. Woburn will be taking part in this with all the bells in the city ringing at that time. The bell at the church my mom goes to (very close to the location of the ceremony) was just fixed and is operational for the first time in a long time. That bell will be joining the others.

      1. We will in Sutton also. Uxbridge is as well. I’d be surprised if most towns are not participating. I know they are in other parts of the country.

  17. the storm for next week, there seems to be the main low that comes out of the Gulf of Mexico, and would probably just go out to sea, but due to a disturbance that comes from Canada, this low is dragged north with the EURO showing the interaction happening the earliest, sending the low well to our west giving us rain. GFS and Canadian are slow and allows the main low to move off the SE coast and the interaction between the disturbance that moves into the Lakes and the Low forms a coastal low with the development of this low not known either. So many pieces, so much fun just to track and put the puzzle together. With that said, ski country looks to win big within the next 10 days. especially in northern NH and Interior Maine.

    1. There will be more than 2 days not too long from now, but 2 more storm systems to go before the pattern changes.

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