Thursday Forecast

53 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
No big changes for this update, just some fine-tuning in the short term. High pressure arrives today and hangs on until early Friday with fair weather, then a low pressure area advances rapidly into the region by late Friday producing a quick but strong pulse of wet weather Friday night ending very early Saturday. Winds pick up Saturday behind this departing storm system as it intensifies and another area of high pressure approaches. This high will bring fair weather for the balance of the weekend including into Monday which is an observed Veterans Day holiday for some after the actual holiday on Sunday. Dry but chilly weather will be in place for observances on either day. By late Monday, however, clouds will arrived in advance of the next storm system as the active weather pattern continues. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind light NW to light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-36. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Early sun then clouding over. Chance of rain by late afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusty late in the day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast, shifting to N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of drizzle and a chance of rain early morning, then a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures falling slowly through the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of rain at night that may start as mix/snow. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Storm system impacts the region Tuesday looking like mainly a rain event but have to watch interior higher elevations for mix/snow possibility. Cold air arrives November 14 with a risk of a few snow showers otherwise dry/windy. Dry/cold but tranquil November 15. Minor system may produce a few rain/snow showers later November 16 to early November 17 with only slight moderation in temperature.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
This currently looks like a fairly dry period with more seasonable temperatures, just a frontal passage around November 21 with a few rain showers.

53 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another nice day on tap today. It is very nice out there now.

    We shall see how things shape up, but the Tuesday event looks to travel too far West.
    I need to closely examine the Euro, but on 1st glance, it looks like the 0Z run
    came a bit more East than previous runs. Let’s hope at least enough to give NNE
    ski areas a net gain of snow even if it switches to rain. NO hope down here at all.

    Very tough to get a “snow storm” here this time of year. Best chance is to have coastal
    with enough cold air in place and winds backing to the North while there is still
    precipitation available. OR having an anomalous Frigid Arctic air mass in place, which is very rare around these parts at least till the end of the month.

  6. Thanks TK
    6 years ago yesterday a good chunk of CT had 6-10 inches of snow with some spots coming in with a foot of snow. This happened a week after Sandy. Even NYC ended up with around 4 inches of snow.

  8. From Judah:

    Are you a #winter weather enthusiast anywhere in the Eastern US, Europe or East Asia? Then this GFS forecast of the Northern Hemisphere circulation for late November should have you excited. #WinterIsComing, no for real.

  10. Repost from yesterday

    I suspect you all know that this is an extra special Veterans Day. This year the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month will commemorate the 100th anniversary of WWI

    Churches and individuals are being asked to ring bells 21 times at 11:00 Sunday. The first link is the explanation. The second a link to the app that will automatically toll 21 times at 11:00 am

    https://www.worldwar1centennial.org/index.php/communicate/press-media/wwi-centennial-news/4668-wwi-commission-announces-bells-of-peace-on-armistice-centennial.html

    Below is a link to download the bells of peace app. Under the screen shots are links to the app specific to your device.

    https://www.worldwar1centennial.org/commemorate/event-map-system/ace-smartphone-app.html

  11. I’ll be very interested to see what happens with the storm system tomorrow night in northern New England as I will be in Jackson, NH for the weekend (actually Coastal will be up in that area as well). Primary storm is tracking well west but will be transferring its energy to a developing storm off the New England coast so there is definitely a cold air damming signature in place for northern NH and western Maine.

    Coastal, I think we are going to be in for some wintery weather up there tomorrow night into Saturday. Maybe not much in the way of accumulation for Bartlett, Jackson, and North Conway but I don’t think you are going to need to go up in elevation much to see several inches of snow. And it looks like all out blizzard conditions in the higher summits of the Presidentials on Saturday.

    I’ll report from up there this weekend and perhaps send a few photos!

    1. I will look forward to seeing information and photos. I hope you and Coastal and your families have a great weekend!

    2. Mark, looking forward to our first snow event. I told the kids and they are very excited. I have been memorizing my location on theses maps so I know what to expect for snow fall. I am located 4 miles east of the lower end of Harts Location. When counties are shown on these maps I can easily zero into my area.

      I heard Wildcat is open on Monday? I will be bring my gear just in case. I have 8 lights to install, 5 line voltage switches, two wifi / rf switches and I need to wire a new heat pump system this weekend. Its a working weekend but hope to finish up to enjoy the stick season up there.

      1. I think I am going to bring the skis as well. Looks like brutal hiking weather with the wind chills and probable ice on the trails. The Wildcat website says they are open all weekend as well as Monday for Veterans Day. They also say they are expecting up to 8-12″ of snow but I think that is aggressive. regardless, even last weekend they had 5 trails open and top to bottom skiing….most vertical open right now in the East (2000′).

        I’ll let you know how it is if we go. Good luck with your house projects!

        1. It broke my heart that they did away with the ski mobile. In summer, my brother and I thought we were big shots because we were so familiar with it from skiing. I still remember the day I graduated to the second level to ski

    2. AHH brings back memories.

      Once a looooong time ago, My Dad drove the whole family up that way
      to go leaf peeping. We pulled into Cranmore and the Ski Mobile was operating, so he purchased tickets for us all and up we went to the summit. I’ll never forget.

      Funny, something sticks in my mind and that was a ski trail off to the side of
      the summit serviced by a J-bar lift. I just found that to be fascinating.
      I was maybe 9 or 10 at the time, so it was in the mid to late 50s or so.

      Oh and after that, he was going to drive us up to the summit of Mt. Washington. 2 things prevented us from doing so:

      1. It was too much money
      2. The car was so crappy, the engine compression was not good enough to make it up there.

      Oh well, the summit of Cranmore was good enough for me.

      1. Thank you. I found it years ago on ebay after Mac and I had been to North Conway. I was trying to explain to my kids what the skimobile was. I sadly don’t have anything of my own left from that time. I just looked. There are a ton of postcards on ebay and also the buttons that both my brother and I used to have. I bet you could make a fascinating collage.

  14. I’d take the bullseye but I think that will actually be right over Mount Washington. NWS Gray thinks a few sloppy inches in the lower elevations trending up to 6″ as you go higher up. The NAM and GFS are holding onto the low level cold pretty well but with the SW flow aloft, it is likely going to warm the mid levels quickly, resulting in a changeover to sleet/frz rain.

    Regardless, should be my first taste of winter weather this year and I’m excited for it!

      1. Oh don’t worry, I don’t count on anything that shows up
        10 days out. Just thought that it was interesting is all.

        If it gets much weaker, it simply won’t exist. 😀 😀 😀

  16. So based on yesterday’s models and snow maps, big snows were a certainty to some fake weather outfits out there on the net. I saw a few, had a good laugh, and moved on. Meanwhile their followers are convinced Boston and Providence get substantial snow Monday through Wednesday next week, well, because the models said so, as did the non-met page operator, because, well, they are “always spot on”, “never wrong”, “always better and can forecast sooner than the TV people”, and “way better than the NWS because they suck”, just to paraphrase a few comments I read. And when the forecast is wrong they will justify it with a “well, can’t get them all right”. Yes, the same people who a few days before told them they are never wrong. And then the cycle will begin anew when the next one shows up on the models days in advance. They never learn.

    1. We had a bunch of calls from people wondering about road work, and when it was going to get finished, because we were getting 5-8″ of snow next Wednesday. I just sat there chuckling over the commotion.

      1. Exactly what I mean. More and more the word of the fakers is being taken as the real deal. It’s bad enough that it’s not only an insult to my profession, but someday somebody is going to be badly injured, or worse, because of a decision based on uneducated “wishcasting”.

    2. I call it the Television Psychic Phenomenon (TPP). When a television psychic does cold readings of the audience they get a lot wrong. The audience doesn’t care about that and are only listening for hits. When the television psychic hits something even remotely close like the initials of a long lost relative they are then considered a source to the afterlife that is beyond reproach.

      So the same works for non mets sharing maps without any caveats and presenting them as gospel. When they don’t wind up being true they can handwave and blame everyone but themselves. On the very rare occasion they are right they take the credit and improve their image.

      I shared the first showing of snow on a model to a group I’m a part of recently but with caveats like “this will never happen”. It was just fun to share because at the time it was the first sign of a predicted snow in many months.

  19. the MTNS look to have a good chance of seeing 5 to 10 inches with 0-5 in the valleys of northern New England

    1. If not more, but how much rain/sleet gets involved and what is the net gain?

      It may snow a foot, but would be left with 6 inches of mushy snow that will harden like a rock. AND that is fine as it creates a nice solid base that isn’t going anywhere.

      1. the thing, is that they are going to be able to also make man made snow, which they will groom and mix in with the natural stuff, which will mix the water content around and it won’t be as bad.

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