6:54AM
DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
Low pressure will approach from the southwest today then intensify while crossing the region tonight, bringing a good slug of rainfall with it. Though the heaviest of this rain will have exited by dawn Saturday, the day will start out murky as low pressure will be just departing with lots of trapped low level moisture before the drier air arrives. Once it does, it will clear and dry out but get quite windy Saturday. A gusty breeze will continue into Sunday as well but will decrease quite a bit compared to Saturday afternoon, although it will be cooler Sunday, still a very nice Veterans Day. For the observed holiday on Monday it will be dry though clouds will advance ahead of the next system in a series. That one is expected to also bring a good slug of rain to the region Tuesday, that could start as a brief mix if precipitation arrives quickly enough Monday night (long shot chance). Forecast details…
TODAY: Early sun then clouding over. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusty late in the day.
TONIGHT: Overcast with rain and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast, shifting to N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of drizzle and a chance of rain through mid morning., then a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures steady 47-54 early then falling slowly through the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of rain at night that may start as mix/snow. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Windy and colder with a few snow showers possible otherwise dry November 14. Dry and cold but more tranquil November 15 under high pressure. Weak system brings a risk of a few rain/snow showers at some point between later November 16 and early November 17 followed by dry and seasonably chilly weather to end the period.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
This is Thanksgiving week and so far the early look is for mainly dry weather to start and end it with a front passing by about mid week with a risk of rain showers. Temperatures closer to seasonal averages overall.
Thanks Tk
Thanks TK !
TK–do you still think Boston sees its first inch of snow in November?
I’m not sure what TK’s opinion is, but I say Not. 😀
I bet that Boston doesn’t even see its first flakes, let alone an inch.
Good morning and thank you TK.
And the beat goes on. How many more times
is it going to rain, rain, rain and rain some more…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB8JXBTmHXY
Flash Flood Watch
https://www.weather.gov/box/
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch
the snow chance for around here within the next week, probably next to no chance in terms of accumulation. Watch for something sneaky around the 20th to 23
I’ll believe that when I look out my window and see it.
ALL I see are Inside runners and Lakes Cutters cluttering up the
model charts.
12Z 3KM NAM is calling for up to 30 inches Kuchera snow in the high whites of
New Hampshire.
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018110912/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png
I love the term, high whites
Thank you, TK
Hmmm
12Z GFS shows the next System for Tuesday, less of an inside runner
than previously.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png
If you have Netflix Outlaw King starts tonight. Robert the Bruce was Macs 20 times great grandfather. Not through the Bruce line but through the Stratton’s of Lauriston line.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlaw_King
Fascinating. I saw that this morning and Chris Pine jumped out.
We’ll probably watch it.
Thanks
I will also. He was not portrayed well in braveheart but I tend to think it was for effect….Hollywood style
Thanks TK.
Worth noting that the HRRR shows quite a bit less rain tonight than most of the other guidance. 0.5-1″ as opposed to 1-2″ on most of the other guidance. We’ll see how that verifies. Most of the rain should come in a 2-3 hour window.
So in other words, the flash flood watch “may” be unwarranted once again.
In fairness it is a watch , not a warning, and could be lifted should things change.
I saw a forecast this morning of as much as 3”.
12Z ICON for the 16th
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2018110912/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_58.png
ICON smoking the good stuff I see.
Thanks TK.
Also here’s the 7 days from around the dial; https://i.imgur.com/PBn63Py.jpg
Radar capturing what is likely a “firenado” associated with the wildfire near Malibu, CA. Strong velocity couplet in the smoke detected by radar. Reflectivity spike also indicates a good chance this was lofting debris as well. Just imagine that, a damaging tornado-esque vortex in the middle of a wall of fire.
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1060987484656619522
WOW! Thanks. Truly amazing and scary as hell.
19z HRRR has much of the “Woods Hill Weather area” at or even below 0.5″ rain from this event with higher amounts north and south. That may be out to lunch based on radar though.
20Z HRRR still shows that rain hole
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018110920/hrrr_apcpn_neus_18.png
Radar “may” say otherwise here as WxWatcher indicated.
https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=20&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25696677&lat=0&lon=0&label=you
the fires over in California, are awful, they are so dry over there. They could really use snow in the MTNS and have what we been having, Long period of rain, but not all at once.
Snowing in Bartlett.
https://imgur.com/gallery/I2eKDF1
Beautiful. I’d love to be sitting out there. Enjoy.
Just arrived in Jackson, NH. 32 degrees with heavy wet snow! Everything is covered and roads are slushy. We flipped to snow about 10 miles south of Conway but wasn’t really accumulating until we got a few miles from Jackson. Elevation makes a big difference.
Here’s a shot at the Wentworth Inn:
https://i.postimg.cc/1RM9zfNn/D5455004-4-ED6-4-C32-A101-4-AF997871-A34.jpg
And another of Route 16B:
https://i.postimg.cc/Rhb5LJcg/C775-F32-F-C3-A5-461-F-AC2-B-6-C6-A0-B3-BCC49.jpg
Very nice, Mark. It’s probably snowing in Bethlehem, NH, too.
Thank you for sharing these. Just perfect.
We arrived around 730 which was about the time it changed from a mix to all snow.
More picks from about a hour ago.
https://imgur.com/gallery/4jKRigN
Nice, Coastal.
I wish the rain we’re getting was snow in Boston. Oh well.
Give it time. We will be complaining about the snow before you know it! 🙂
1,43 so far
One thousand forty-three!!! WOW!
We have 1.22 inch so far and still raining.
So much for the piece of shit HRRR!!!!
Hahaha!
Hahahahahaha. I’ve been saying we have had a lot of rain. Finally, someone listened 😉
HRRR actually has nailed almost every event. It’s far from a piece of shit. It just missed this one.
Ha Ha Ha…..Ya, I know. Just piss-poor performance
yesterday. 😀 😀 😀
We ended up with 1.65
1.72 inches here.
Resetting something then going back to admin account to update…
New post! Sorry for the delay…