Sunday Forecast

51 Comments

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
Veterans Day 2018, bright, chilly, and breezy, but at least it’s not wet, and that’s lucky given the frequency of wet days this autumn. That pattern will continue with the next wet weather system Tuesday and perhaps another threat late in the week which I’ll discuss in the second section of the blog. No big changes to anything I said yesterday. The track of Tuesday’s low may be just a touch further southeast but that won’t really have much of an impact on what was going to happen anyway, and that is another good slug of soaking rain. Before the storm’s arrival, it’s interesting to note that smoke from California’s wildfires may give the sky a hazy appearance even before the high cloudiness increases on Monday. Still expecting the coldest air of the season so far to follow Tuesday’s storm. Forecast details…
TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below freezing morning, 30s afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26 interior, 27-34 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY OBSERVED): Smoke-filtered sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain starts pre-dawn, perhaps as a brief mix Worcester Hills and Monadnock region. Lows 32-38. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, tapering to lighter rain/drizzle late. Areas of fog. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
WEDNESDAY: Windy. Sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a passing snow shower. Temperatures fall into 30s day, 20s night.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
Storm threat exists for November 16 but at the moment I’m leaning toward an incomplete connection between the polar and subtropical jet streams with the mean burst of energy missing this area to the southeast and just some rain/snow showers around, fair weather following although breezy and chilly on November 17, then clouds and a risk of light precipitation (possibly mix to rain) November 18 as a disturbance not really seen by guidance yet moves into the region. Fair and slightly milder weather to end the period as the jet stream relaxes and a flat ridge overtakes the East.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Currently expecting important travel/holiday/shopping time to be a fairly quiet stretch of weather with perhaps a weak system bringing light rain at some point around November 23 or 24. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

51 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Posted this on the previous blog but figured I would post it here as well: According to the HRRR we might experience some smoke from the California wildfires here in New England. Here’s the HRRR: https://i.imgur.com/x65jPwI.mp4

    How crazy is that? Shows just how powerful nature is both in fire and atmosphere.

    1. Yes indeed! I actually put that in my forecast for Monday. Mid and upper level winds bring it right in.

      1. I noticed you did that. You’re officially the first forecaster mentioning it that I’ve seen. lol

        It’s like a version of when the volcano in Eyjafjallajökull Iceland erupted and the smoke plume made its way to England and other European territories.

        1. I started watching the visible yesterday and based on upper winds figured we’d get into the smoke plume.

  2. Thank you TK.

    Thank you to our veterans for all you have done and continue to do in order to keep our freedoms set by a group of amazing individuals so long ago. May God Bless you.

    1. Going to Veterans Day parades in Boston as a kid, I remember the days just like this, crisp and cool with a moderate breeze. 🙂

      1. Just had time to read back. I remember them as well. Any time an flag bearer marched by my mom made us put our hands over our hearts. I would cross my arms to hide that I was doing it because as kids can be, I was embarrassed. No one else did it. Ted W caught me at the one parade he attended with us. It was the only time he took me aside and gave me a well deserved lecture about what our flag stands for. I not only never did it again but I stood taller every time ….and I still do

  5. I have a suggestion regarding the wildfires. What about watering the ground in advance, even if it’s just twice a month? I certainly don’t expect every square inch but perhaps even a relatively small area could make a huge difference? The last I heard the death toll was up to 23, many in cars.

    1. The areas where wildfires are fall under D2 level drought zones. See here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

      To cover any land even a random ten square miles would take up tonnes of water to be at all effective for that area of land. And you would need to do it often. And you would have to gamble that the area would catch fire. Otherwise you are just wasting millions upon millions of precious water resources and not to mention millions of dollars on a workforce to distribute it. I could go on but I think you have an idea on why the idea would be crazy.

  6. The fact that we will be able to see smoke from the wildfires, am I correct that our upper level pattern will be a zonal flow for a while?

  9. I’m sick of this already. The 16th event now looks to be another facata inside runner!!
    Hope it doesn’t happen ALL Winter.
    And, yes, I am fully aware that it is not Winter.

  12. Thanks TK, and thank you to all the veterans who have served this country.

    Models generally trending down on QPF for the next system. We’ll get some rain and Tuesday still looks pretty much washed out save for maybe late in the day, but doesn’t look like any significant flooding concerns.

    The 15th-16th is a very low confidence forecast. Just look at the latest runs of the GFS vs. the FV3-GFS. I wouldn’t rule out TK’s scenario in which that storm never really comes together. It’s worth watching if it does come together though, because coming in behind what will be a very cold air mass, you do the run the risk of a burst of snow/mix on the leading edge.

    1. the FV3 as sucked, I put no weight into it at the moment, its performing worst than the operational. doing better yes, still garbage though.

  14. 1 on the wild fires in California. These areas have been experiencing drought for a while, which increases the likely hood of fires. Death Toll is at 24 last time I heard. Fires have always happened on the west coast, but because of the drought conditions they are more easily started and spread much quicker. There is a reason why there are such things as control fires, something that Africa countries do very good at in the Savannah to protect their land. Trees will grow back if the conditions are good, there are also fire resistant trees out west also. With that said, many of the newly developed areas in California have sprinkler systems that are solely used for forest fire season. I believe there is a requirement in Certain areas of California that requires an outdoor sprinkler system which includes sprinklers on the house itself.

    1. You may have unintentionally answered my question about the fires above, Matt. Thanks!

      I also would be curious if the early settlers following the gold rush of 1849 had to eventually deal with frequent wildfires or if this is mostly a late 20th/early 21st century occurrence.

    2. From the NYT article I posted a link to yesterday. They gave four reasons…fire suppression is one. Climate change, people and the santa Anna’s are the other three.

      Fire suppression

      It’s counterintuitive, but the United States’ history of suppressing wildfires has actually made present-day wildfires worse.

      For the last century we fought fire, and we did pretty well at it across all of the Western United States,” Dr. Williams said. “And every time we fought a fire successfully, that means that a bunch of stuff that would have burned didn’t burn. And so over the last hundred years we’ve had an accumulation of plants in a lot of areas.

      “And so in a lot of California now when fires start, those fires are burning through places that have a lot more plants to burn than they would have if we had been allowing fires to burn for the last hundred years.”

      In recent years, the United States Forest Service has been trying to rectify the previous practice through the use of prescribed or “controlled” burns.

      1. I’d think sprinklers without controlled burns would exacerbate the problem by helping the stuff grow that needs to burn but doesn’t Maybe that is an incorrect assumption.

  16. The 2018 Pats are a team that doesn’t play well on the road and doesn’t play well from behind. They’re doing both today. They’ll have to learn, quickly, how to do both those things if they want any chance of a playoff run this year.

  17. Don’t get sucked into thinking this team can win it all. This is the same old same old defense. It will let you down in the end.

    Offense can’t win EVERY game.

        1. It is and I hope all is well with you. I was worried about you but folks here said you’d be back in winter. I’m glad they were right

  20. The patriots are banged up today, the Offense was missing major pieces of the puzzle that no one really realizes. The defensive front was doing ok but if the backfield can not do anything, it does not matter how good the pressure is. Special teams were sloppy. Defense also got tired. today’s loss was all on the offense and the backfield of the defense. I bet Logan Ryan and Butler were pretty happy but are not saying much, but Lewis sure is and all three should rightfully be proud of what they did. All three deserved to still be with the patriots but the patriots were to cheap and our secondary will have an overhaul in the off season as it will be the part that blows the playoffs.

    1. the team I can see them loosing too are the Rams, but I am not sure as the Rams defense is not that good in the secondary.

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