Monday Forecast

68 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
High pressure over the region this morning, starting the day bright and cold, retreats to the northeast during the day as low pressure approaches from the southwest, and the day ends on the greyer side. We may also see some haziness in the sky due to smoke from California wildfires that has traveled across the country in the mid and upper level winds. The low pressure area represents our next slug of solid rainfall which will cross the region Tuesday before exiting to allow a shot of cold air in for Wednesday, but with the arrival of this cold air we’ll have to watch for any puddles and areas of wet pavement to ice up Tuesday night especially north and west of Boston. High pressure will move overhead and quickly settle the winds down Wednesday night and set up a cold Thursday morning but a dry and tranquil daytime. Another low pressure area will already be approaching from the south southwest at that time, hopefully the last in the series, and will bring more wet weather Friday, though this system may have some mix/snow involved at the outset in a larger portion of the region – details to be worked out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine through midday, some smoke in mid to high altitudes, and increasing cloudiness during the afternoon. Highs 42-48. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight, may begin as brief mix/snow from northern Worcester Hills of MA to Monadnock region of NH. Lows 34-41. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times through midday. Drizzle and areas of lighter rain later in the day. Highs 45-52 except 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, may shift briefly to SW Cape Cod, shifting to NE then N all areas late-day.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy start, then partial clearing. Watch for icing up of lingering wet ground in areas north and west of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Pre-dawn snow/mix/rain arriving then rain likely, tapering off late-day or nighttime. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Weekend of November 17-18 will feature sun/clouds, 40s, and a possible rain shower Saturday followed by lots of clouds, 30s, and a possible snow shower Sunday, along with plenty of wind as a strong northwesterly flow dominates and an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Look for milder and more tranquil weather November 19-20 although a cold front may bring a brief rain shower sometime on November 20 based on current timing. This would return seasonably chilly air to the region by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Very preliminary but Thanksgiving (November 22) and Black Friday (November 23) as well as the start of the weekend look dry at this point with a chance of more wet weather by the end of the period. Temperatures will likely be close to seasonal averages.

68 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank You T.

    Got down to 24.2 here this morning, coldest of the season so far.

    Perhaps the Thursday system turns out a little bit interesting, although it
    is a total rain maker in SNE according to the Euro.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Models have ticked back up a bit with tomorrow’s rain totals, but again it won’t make much of a difference on the outcome. A wet day with likely another 1-1.5″ rain for many. No significant flooding concerns and mainly nuisance-level wind issues both during and behind the storm. Still watching Thursday night into Friday with some wintry outcomes still on the table there but continued low confidence. And then it looks like we finally do quiet down for a more extended period which should take us right through Thanksgiving. Early indications for the holiday are dry. Things may turn stormy again by month’s end with the AO and NAO set to nosedive.

  8. Temp was an even 20 at 6:45 am. I’m hearing some areas in Sutton and other surrounding towns salted a few areas yesterday and today. Water table sure is high.

  9. Massbay hope you have fun at Killington, I usually have done my own skis with the machine I have down in the basement, but many of the materials needed I have ran out of, so I am waiting to go to wachusett since I know the guy personally, who can wax and get my skis ready for early season skiing. I also got free tickets to Wachusett. I usually do not go before Christmas unless at least 50% of the terrain is open

    1. I am a season pass holder at Wachu. Love that place. Very well run, imho. Senior season passes are a great deal. I will be there asap after they open. You’ll have to let me know when you start to go there.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    While it’s very unlikely we break a record for the wettest year, we’re inching closer to record territory with every inch of rain we get, which seems to happen every 2 or 3 days. My guess is that Boston sees another 2 inches of rain or more between now and Friday. We’d still be 11 or 12 inches away from the record, but the rest of November could easily produce another couple of inches of rain (qpf), and then December could drop another 4 or 5 inches of rain (qpf). This would get us to within 5 inches of the record. All in all, this year’s been on the wet and gray side.

    1. Too many “ifs” and “coulds” for my taste. I was hoping he would give a solid prediction for this upcoming winter and get it over with.

    2. it was not his own forecast, he was talking about different parameters, he was not even talking about how some of them will actually influence the weather.

  12. In the something to keep an eye on. Tweet from Meteorologist John Homenuk
    The long awaited November warmup is on life support in the Northeast states. Ensemble guidance with a growing signal for a behemoth Scandinavian ridge with N Atlantic wave break and ridging progressing toward Greenland. -NAO development is not out of the question.

  14. Thanks TK. It was a chilly 20 degrees in Coventry Ct this morning. Coldest of the season thus far.

    Had a good weekend in the White Mountains. Certainly looked and felt like full fledged winter up there. We had about 3″ of snow in Jackson before a changeover to some sleet and rain. Then it flipped back to snow showers Saturday PM. There was 6″+ though in the higher elevations.

    We ended up traveling north to ski at Sunday River Saturday. They had received 6″ of new snow and were skiing off a couple trails near the top. Ski conditions were not bad considering it was only Nov. 10 and the coverage on the open terrain was good. But my goodness did it get extremely windy and cold in the PM. Felt like Jan 10!

    Here are a few pictures:

    https://i.postimg.cc/j2PxtBVf/IMG-8960.jpg

    https://i.postimg.cc/FH16S3RW/IMG-8964.jpg

    I took that second picture after the clouds finally broke in the PM and a view emerged but we were pretty socked in with clouds, snowshowers, and blowing snow just before that.

  15. That was not Dave Epstein’s official forecast. that was Dave Epstein’s discussion about the winter and some of the things that may happen. Somebody who was in charge of writing the story decided it was his winter forecast.

    You all know that Epstein would not short change his audience.

  16. Also hiked Kearsarge North just outside of North Conway yesterday. Most of the trail was covered in snow and ice. It was patchy near the bottom but increased to about 6″ near the top (3300 foot elevation). Needed the micro-spikes as it was very icy in spots. It was windy and cold near the top but great visibility with the sunny skies. A couple shots….

    Trail:
    https://i.postimg.cc/CMrLkysw/IMG-8981.jpg

    View looking west from the summit and the trees ensconced in ice:
    https://i.postimg.cc/k557BfR2/IMG-8988.jpg

    View looking north towards Mt Washington:
    https://i.postimg.cc/LsJGc7Z3/IMG-8998.jpg

    1. The majority of that snow in SNE falls Thurs night/Friday. Keeping in mind those are 10:1 ratios and also include sleet.

  19. 12z Euro shows a pretty potent Inside Runner for Thursday/Friday.
    Starting with a touch of snow, but primarily a soaker.

  20. Tweet from Ed Vallee for Thursday night into Friday
    The European suggests folks even close to the coast need to pay attention for the first impactful winter event of the season.

  22. I have bat houses in my back yard, my grandparents who had this house had bat houses here as well, the area has always been full of bats, but from 2012 to 2016 the numbers here went down and went down quickly, we were lucky to have 3 or 4 bats by 2016, but last summer and especially this summer the population rebounded. I asked my neibor who worked with bats her entire life is the population coming back? It indeed is, I guess an advantage to the warming climate is that not all bats are going back to the wintering home where the white nose fungus were killing them so their populations are rebounding.

    2. Those are common especially in autumn when the early cold air masses cross the still-warm waters.

      We have a local pond that gets them. I got some small ones on video last autumn. Most of them were about 3 to 4 feet high but there were dozens.

      1. That’s really cool. Wind was essentially dead calm this morning! Can’t say I have ever seen one of those before.

    1. Happy to share, it was truly beautiful up there this weekend….at least for those of us who like winter 🙂

  27. Judah Cohen updated his blog today….
    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

    A couple things I took from this:

    -Negative AO and trending negative NAO over the next two weeks

    -will favor near to below normal temps east of the Rockies in the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods

    -Canadian snow cover advancing at a “blistering rate” and near decadal highs could favor an early start to the winter across the northern US.

    -Eurasian snow cover which had been near decadal lows has expanded and is now near seasonal average.

    -He ran some regression patterns that he feels supports “the physical connection between snow cover advance in October, the northwestward expansion of the Siberian high in November and more active vertical energy transfer in December”. This would then lead to a sudden stratospheric warming/weakened polar vortex most likely in January and eventually a negative AO/NAO and widespread severe winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere.

    Of course, he runs through other scenarios that could result in different outcomes but concludes his Impacts section by saying:

    “It seems to me that the models will likely struggle with the placement of the blocking in the North Atlantic. This needs to be watched carefully with different scenarios possible based on the exact location of the blocking, but high latitude blocking on either side of the North Atlantic raises the risk of severe winter weather for both the Eastern US and northern Eurasia including Europe.”

    1. And it’s important to keep in mind “Eastern US” does not automatically translate to New England.

        1. What other areas can “Eastern U.S.” translate to? We are as far “east” as one can get before hitting the Atlantic Ocean.

    2. The statement about struggling with placement of blocking is KEY. More on that around the time I issue my winter outlook.

    2. That map has the Pioneer Valley and NYC metro area getting a 5-8″ jackpot while the Berkshires and Worcester hills get virtually nothing. LMAO!

  29. I think Logan has a decent chance at its first inch with the late week storm. Hard not to see a front end thump of snow/mix, though there’s still a lot of details to iron out.

    1. I have noticed the models have been trending further south and east with the storm track. We are getting close to a benchmark system. Not that that will guarantee we all get significant snow (after all it is still November) but it sure is looking more likely that we see accumulating snow to the coast and plowable snow inland.

  30. FWIW, this is the 12z Euro snowmap for the late week system:

    https://i.postimg.cc/ydxWLTN2/Capture.png

    All that snow in SNE is from the late week storm. The stuff in NNE is combined from tomorrow’s storm and the late week storm.

    It keeps the low track off shore but still a pretty quick changeover to rain near the coast. Shows 0.6″ for Boston and 6″+ in the Berkshires.

  31. Tweets from Ryan Hanrahan:

    Snow > Mix > Rain seems like the most likely scenario Thursday night. That said, some models like the FV3 are way more bullish on the snow chances. This model would be a legit snowstorm. We’re watching it and I’ll have a lot more at 11.

    Unseasonably cold air and an offshore nor’easter Thursday evening & night will lead to a period of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. I don’t know how much accumulation yet but a few inches is not out of the realm of possibility.

  32. Tweets from Eric Fisher:

    Mega-Scandinavian block developing may throw a wrench in December. If this retrogrades into a strong -NAO then could be a much more interesting/cold month. Time will tell but it’s a feature to watch.

    And here’s a look at the Nov-Mar composite anomalies at 500mb for big winters vs dud winters. Can infer strong polar vortex in the dud winters. +PNA signal in the bigger winters. This upcoming season looks to favor the latter.
    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1062165754261524483

    Or look at it another way…jet stream level wind anomalies. Big winters show active subtropical jet while dud winters keep a tight strong polar flow
    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1062167533225160704

    Tomorrow should bring us up to 3rd wettest fall on record @bhobservatory. Maybe getting to the top spot before the week ends? #wbz

    All of these years (and a few more near the top) featured near or below average snowfall, but none of them were weak El Nino winters. Mostly La Nina or neutral conditions.
    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1062185549149208577

    Hmm, I wonder which way Eric is leaning for his winter forecast this year? It’s airing on Thursday night.

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