Tuesday Forecast

144 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
A rapidly-moving low pressure area soaks the region through midday today, then a dry-out process begins as the low pulls away. As the low pressure area passes across the region, quite the variety of wind will occur, with winds ranging from light northerly in central MA and southwestern NH to light variable around Boston, and southwesterly all the way up to 40-60 MPH in gusts across Cape Cod and Nantucket, but as the low pulls away, a moderate and gusty northwesterly air flow overtakes the entire region. A quick temperature drop will cause rainwater to freeze up, but on many surfaces it should be able to dry before this happens. But be careful in areas that it does not this evening and tonight as the temperature drops. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the season so far, along with a gusty wind. High pressure moves overhead for a quick drop off of the wind at night and a tranquil Thursday, though high clouds will arrive ahead of our next storm system, which starts as snow/mix later Thursday night before going to rain as milder ocean air overtakes the lower atmosphere Friday. This system will begin to pull away later Friday and set up a return to dry and chilly weather for the start of the weekend. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with rain, heavy at times through midday. Lingering drizzle and lighter rain early afternoon ending mid to late afternoon as clouds break. Highs 45-52 except 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH southern NH and central MA, light variable east central MA to northern RI, SE to SW 10-25 MPH southern RI across southeastern MA except 25-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH Cape Cod and Islands, shifting to NW all areas late in the day 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Watch for icing up of lingering wet ground in areas north and west of Boston. Lows 25-33. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-26. Diminishing NW wind.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 37-43. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Pre-dawn snow/mix interior and mix/rain coast arriving then rain likely, tapering off late-day or nighttime. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Sun/clouds. Slight risk of a rain shower early. Breezy. Lows from the middle to upper 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Disturbance brings late-day rain/snow shower risk November 18. Front may bring a rain shower at some point around November 20 and weak disturbance may arrive with a rain or snow shower by the end of the period, otherwise a largely dry period of weather with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Dry start and end to this period. A period of wet weather possible in between. Temperatures will likely be close to seasonal averages.

144 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Interesting 2nd storm this week ……

    Pros and cons for inland winter precip type

    Pros :

    quite cold airmass and likely associated temp/dewpoint depressions

    nearby retreating polar high to briefly maintain cold in the interior

    Cons :

    nearby, retreating high with low to the south means onshore boundary layer wind off of 52F ocean

    inland low at sfc and aloft may send northward thin, mild layer of warmth aloft to quickly change snow to sleet

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Thanks also for your pros and cons, Tom.

    0.96 rain and counting since precip began just after midnight. Lowest temp was 37.3.

  5. Good morning…
    Thanks as always, TK…

    I put “November Rain” on iTunes during the commute in this morning.
    I think Mother Nature has “November Rain” on repeat mode on her iTunes!! 🙂

  6. Thank you, TK.

    I’m doing a lot of running in place indoors these days. In lieu of a treadmill, I just run in place in my living room. I’d prefer the outdoors, but with the rain that’s been a periodic problem lately.

    It seems that interest in UFOs is cyclical, and peaks every 40 years or so. Judging from recent reports, including the link below, it feels like we’re back in the 1970s again.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46181662

    1. Cool article. I like how we always try to explain away these occurrences. IMO only, I think we are silly to believe we are the only life forms out there.

    2. 99+ % of UFO reports are hoaxes or totally explained, however, there is a very very small percentage that are well let’s just say unexplained. Fascinating to say the least.

      There is no way we are alone in the universe. Just no way, so who knows
      what advanced technologies might be out there. Just something to think
      about.

      And no, I am not a kook, just being real and keeping an open mind.

      1. I agree. But I wonder if a small part of that 99 is just our way of keeping our heads in the sand. Quite a while ago I read a book on Roswell by an Army Colonel ….I may see if I still have it and if not repurchase.

        I’d be curious to know how many believe there is other life. I’d guess a higher percentage than those who do not.

            1. I think in a housing cleaning flurry, I tossed all of those books. I forget the title
              of the one I liked best. I “think” it was this one????

              https://www.amazon.com/Ufo-Crash-Roswell-Kevin-Randle/dp/0380761963/ref=pd_sim_14_4?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0380761963&pd_rd_r=b0fc0b94-e753-11e8-a4b3-157b285f81d6&pd_rd_w=0Dsep&pd_rd_wg=ruEFE&pf_rd_i=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_p=18bb0b78-4200-49b9-ac91-f141d61a1780&pf_rd_r=FAS33HQ3HXKZZDRQH3TZ&pf_rd_s=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_t=40701&psc=1&refRID=FAS33HQ3HXKZZDRQH3TZ

    2. The sun. The creator of our weather and by far the largest driving force in weather and climate. We are at its mercy.

      1. Wait …. mother nature doesn’t create our weather. Well, there goes my day right down the drain 😉 😉

        We sure are at its mercy and the earth is at ours. Interesting circle.

  9. Thank you TK for the nice detailed forecast.

    Some snow totals from the models.

    6Z GFS Kuchera

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111306/096/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z GFS-FV3 Kuchera

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018111300/102/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    0Z CMC Kuchera

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018111300/102/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z NAM

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111300/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    0Z Euro (Proprietary Method similar to Kuchera)

    https://imgur.com/a/KDtrxkl

    Based on the low track, which takes into account Tom’s Discussion above, I think
    the GFS-FV3 is OUT TO LUNCH. Some combo of the Euro, regular GFS is most
    likely more in line with what shakes out with this next system.

    Not sure Boston sees it’s first inch. May fall short at something like 1/2 inch or so, if that. The neighborhoods may see an inch while Logan may struggle to do so.

    Just my thoughts at the moment.

    I can easily see inland areas outside say 495 easily picking up something like
    1-3 or 2-4 inches before changing over, but NOT at the coast.

    Winds are progged to be East to even SE at the onset of the event. NO WAY
    that supports snow at the coast this time of year, even difficult in the dead of Winter.
    This storm is NOT taking a decent track for snow at the coast. We would need
    it more like a benchmark track to get those winds to stay NE to N. Ocean
    is just TOO WARM!!!

    Current Boston Buoy temp is sitting at 51.8 degrees which is “about:” 1.7 degrees
    above average for this date.

    1. JPDave I hope you are right about the lack of accumulation at Logan Friday morning as we have a 7:40 flight to London for a much anticipated vacation!

      1. I’m sure TK will give you much better information, but
        I’d bet anything you will be fine.

        It would take a change in the track and a sudden infusion of
        colder air aloft and at the surface to cause any problems
        Friday AM.

        We have seen the 12Z NAM, now waiting of the rest of the runs.

        The current theme calls for any snow to be on the front end, ie
        Thursday evening, with a change to rain overnight such
        that it is raining Friday AM.

        Even the fairly robust NAM has it raining in Boston certainly by 1AM Friday, if not well before that.

        http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111312/066/refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png

    1. Still wants to deliver 3-4 inches right into Boston.
      I think that is Unrealistic. Perhaps an inch or 2 at most, if that.

  12. Thanks TK. A soaker out there in SNE this morning, but some decent snows to the north. Also, it is snowing in Shreveport, LA this morning!

  13. Thanks TK
    At the moment looking like a 1-3 inch snowfall for SNE. After seeing the first flakes of the season on Saturday lets see if I see my first accumulation coming Thurs evening.

  16. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Here’s a look at European model probabilities for 1″, 3″, and 6″ of snow Thursday night. These seem reasonable to me. Odds of 1″+ are quite high, 3″+ are closer to 50/50, and odds of 6″+ are quite low outside of the NW Hills.

    1. THINK SSTS for this one at the coast.

      I would think that the probability for 1 inch at Logan is quite low, no matter
      what the model says. For Worcester, virtually a sure bet.

  17. NWS discussion (excerpts)

    As the high crosses northern New England Thursday, winds shift
    around to E-SE during the day.

    The H5 cutoff low slowly moves E-NE across the mid Atlc states
    Thu night but, as the high to the NE slowly moving to the
    Maritimes, increasing easterly flow will help feed in moisture
    which should allow precip to spread across the region. Big
    question will be PTYPEs as the onset of the precip. Have a mixed
    bag of precip moving in even along the coast to start, but
    should change over to rain with a slow temp rise with the
    onshore flow off the milder waters.

    The Norton NWS completely understands the meaning of that 52 ocean out there, while it appears that sometimes the models do not or do not factor it in enough.

    Even if the temperature aloft supports snow for several hours into the storm, the
    boundary layer may not (will not), especially the closer to the coast one is located.

    IF we had a NE to N wind instead of E to SE, then there would be a greater chance for more prolonged snow.

    I am predicting that Boston (Logan) does NOT receive an inch of snow with this
    event. Is it possible? Yes it is, but I don’t think it happens.

    I may see the 1 inch at my location, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that and it wouldn’t surprise me if I didn’t even see that much.

    We shall see.

    If this thing turns more to the East earlier, than perhaps things might be
    different.

  21. I am not going to really think to much on numbers until this storm we are in now, moves north, we want to see what this storm does before we really put any numbers to it.

    3. that is tropicaltidbits version which to be honest when it comes to snowfall maps suck.
      I use pivotalweather or weathermodels.com which is showing true snowfall.
      in terms of snowfall lets say here in Billerica with 10-1 maps
      Canadian 6.5 inches
      EURO last run showed 4 inches, don’t have the 12z yet.
      FV3 GFS 4.2
      GFS 1 inch on pivotal map, 2 inches weathermodels.com
      Nam 1.8
      In this you can see the FV3 is actually closer to the EURO than the GFS operational. Its something wrong with tropical tidbits maps as tropical tidbits includes any frozen liquid in it which is wrong since it takes longer for sleet to accumulate.

  23. Since the beginning of October, it seems as if it has rained every other day if not more…ENOUGH! Maybe a few inches of snow will take the edge off all the rain. 🙂

  26. 1.58 so far today and still raining. Temp is 51.

    37.12 inches since June 18 in Sutton. I’m expecting the sink hole in my front yard to now become a geyser. I have to think of a name for it.

  27. OK, I need some help in regard to Friday’s event. Regardless of the type of precipitation, can someone please give me a precipitation start time?

  29. that is tropicaltidbits version which to be honest when it comes to snowfall maps suck.
    I use pivotalweather or weathermodels.com which is showing true snowfall.
    in terms of snowfall lets say here in Billerica with 10-1 maps
    Canadian 6.5 inches
    EURO last run showed 4 inches, don’t have the 12z yet.
    FV3 GFS 4.2
    GFS 1 inch on pivotal map, 2 inches weathermodels.com
    Nam 1.8
    In this you can see the FV3 is actually closer to the EURO than the GFS operational. Its something wrong with tropical tidbits maps as tropical tidbits includes any frozen liquid in it which is wrong since it takes longer for sleet to accumulate.

  31. I’m trying to understand if the low seen on the EURO that JpDave posted above and a similar looking one on the GFS, is the “second” part of this system, when the western piece, accompanied by a strong 500mb feature makes it to the coastline.

    This second feature, if you will, with its mild 850 mb temps and warming boundary layer definitely feature rain a good distance inland from the coastline.

    Its whether there is an initial bout of precip way out in advance of this feature, caused by decent warm air advection over the retreating cold, polar high. Thats the piece that could feature the front end fall of frozen stuff.

    I think the models showing that much snow from this front end piece are way, way, way to high. Too early in the season and the actual precip amount from the lead piece won’t be that great.

  32. What cities are we using for the snow fall contest? These are the ones that I used last year on my blog. I believe on here we did Boston, Worcester, Hartford, Providence if I am not mistaking.
    Boston
    Gloucester MA
    Lowell Ma
    Worcester
    Fitchburg
    Hyannis: 
    Providence RI
    Hartford(Bradly) CT 
    concord NH
    Burlington VT 
    Portland Maine

  35. Forget the the “snowstorm”

    GFS / NAM MOS temps in the CT River Valley Thursday morning? 3-6 F!

    Now that is a anomalous, intreating weather….

  38. From Eric Fisher. Next period to watch after late week.
    The last few Euro runs…woof city. I’m actually a little leery of something popping up in the Monday PM time-frame as well. A period to keep tabs on.

    1. The Gulf is shut off at that point. There will be a northern stream disturbance moving rather quickly, should turn Sunday somewhat unsettled. I alluded to this potential a few days ago then backed off it for a bit only to re-introduce it today.

  39. 18Z NAM Kuchera (Instant Weather Maps)

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018111318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

    18Z 12KM NAM 10:1 snow

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018111318/namconus_asnow_neus_28.png

    18Z NAM Kuchera Snow (Pivotal Weather)

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111318/081/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    18Z NAM 10:1 Snow, Pivotal Weather

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111318/081/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

  40. I didn’t see anybody mention it, but there has been a pretty impressive boundary set up across the region today. This AM, it was MILD – 55 degrees when I left my house in Coventry, CT. Drove 9 miles west to work in Manchester, got out of the car and it was 40, chilly and raw. Big drop over a short distance.

    Easy to see where that boundary is now…still sitting at 61 in New Bedford while it is only 40 at Worcester.

    1. I noticed that as well. At noon I left Andover MA and it was 54 and my garage windows were fogged up. By the time I hit the rt 3/ I93 interchange about 10 miles to the west, it was 43. Also it was pouring from here to were the temp dropped. It reminded me of the coastal front setups in winter where the whiteouts occur.

  41. Probably because there was no frozen precip on the cold side of the boundary, so
    since it’s all rain on either side, no one cared to mention it. Just a guess.

  42. Also -at the time I left for work this AM, we had recorded 1.25″ of rain and it was still raining. Just shy of 6″ on the month now and only Nov. 13. Sixth straight month of 5″+ of rain and this month will mark the third of those six with 7″ or more of rain.

    Now over 40″ since June 1! That is incredible. Nearly a years supply just since then.

    If we keep this pattern going much longer, with all the cold air to the north, winter could get off to a busy start here (as it already has in northern New England).

  43. Sunday River reported another 8″ of new snow from the storm today on the heels of the 6″ they got Friday/Saturday. Another 6-12″ possible Friday. Cold temps and some more snow possible next week?

    This is shaping up to be one of the best Thanksgiving ski weeks in years.

  44. I just saw from Ryan Hanrahan 2-4 inches most of CT. I’ll take that for the first snowfall of the season. Too bad it is washed down the drain with rain.

  45. Hmmm,
    perusing the 18Z NAMs and the 18Z Gfs, I see a trend of the low center passing
    a bit more South and East of the area. This may not help the coast, but inland
    “should” see a reasonable accumulation for the first measurable snow of the year.

    We need to watch this trend.

    Also worth noting on the GFS, the High is NOT as far East as previous runs.

    1. Also, there appears to be some room for back end shenanigans. 😀
      Even Harvey mentioned this last night at Eleven.

  46. Here is the 18Z Kuchera snow map from Instant Weather Maps. I believe this
    run more accurately accounts for the boundary layer issues along the coast.
    Kudos to the GFS.

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018111318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=081

    Pivotal Weather Kuchera

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111318/078/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Pivotal Weather 10:1

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111318/078/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    Tropical Tidbits 10:1

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018111318/gfs_asnow_neus_15.png

    This is still an increase in snow from the 12Z run.

    There “appears” to be a bit of a trend.

  47. Has the parting of today’s storm already affected the outcome of Thursday night’s event?
    I am wondering if the next event doesn’t pass closer to the benchmark than
    previously modeled.

  49. Model snowfall #’s on TV broadcasts. Not pleased. But not surprised either. Looks like the same old crap will be permeating media yet again this winter – again no surprise.

    1. Well, the network is requesting it; and unless the viewer is oblivious, he/she knows it is still three days away. That said, I feel it is irresponsible to wait until the day before. So whats the happy medium.

      1. I don’t think model #’s should be on TV at all. Period.

        It should be forecast maps made by the meteorologist. We’ve already seen proof that model #’s on TV confuse people more than help them.

        1. That confuses me. I think of the models as a guide. I listened to Eric. Is he uneducated enough to just parrot “model numbers” without any thoughts.

          1. I’m talking about the general viewer. See my comment below. They do NOT need to be posting 5 different model forecasts. I am extremely against it.

            1. Eric posted a snow map. It may end up not being accurate. However, he has a responsibility to post to the best of his ability three days out. If the general viewer is foolish enough to think that three days ahead is the final word, then whose fault is it? This simply isn’t making sense to me.

              Also, you and I both know that five general viewers can look at a forecast and come away with five different views of what they saw. 2-4 means 4 …no questions asked. 6-12 means 12 throughout the state….no questions asked.

              1. Yes, I agree with all of that. Eric is excellent at explaining and I think he’s very responsible, given that he has to still appease his bosses.

      2. The happy medium is the producers getting their ratings-hungry heads out of the clouds and realizing this doesn’t help anything from a practical information standpoint. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.

        1. It isn’t. I cannot tell you how many times Pete mentioned it bothering him. But it is the game of top management in far too many other areas. And it is sad.

  50. Friday’s system will be the last in the series. New pattern after that. Polar jet dominated for a while, much quieter overall.

      1. Ugh, Philip. I hope so too.

        Hopefully, the sink hole on my front lawn will not erupt. I haven’t checked it in the last two days.

  51. NO SOONER did I post my comment when I get a message on Facebook from a friend in the Lakes Region of NH who was obviously watching somebody who posted the model #’s from FV3 (or one of the over-inflated models) and they said “Hey the tv weather person just told me I’m getting a foot of snow on Friday. Is this true?” …

    I rest my case.

    1. Did he say where it was from? I am not good with vague comments. Many people take predictions out of context.

      1. She did not, other than it was a “futurecast” type thing. It’s a model. Those are all models. My point here is that they don’t need to be putting model #’s up. They show one map that gives 6 inches. Another map that shows 3. Another that shows 12. All models.

        Whatever happened to a “forecast” made by the met using (or not using) the guidance. The TV viewer does not need to be inundated with various guidance. It does not help a thing!

          1. We’ll never know. She was “flicking through the channels”. Oh well. I’m moving on from it. They’re not going to stop anyway. 🙂

  53. I’m not going to bother tossing down TV stations for posting models anymore. It’s a waste of time. It’s not going to stop. It’s a lost cause. Rating$ are too important. Real information is not. I’m not going to ever change my stance on this, but repeating myself about it is getting old. People can buy whatever they wanna buy. I’ll continue to do this my way. So be it. 🙂

  54. The use of model snow totals by TV stations baffles me as well, for a lot of reasons. Using a “futurecast” type product with simulated radar is fine, but why show model numbers when you could just make a map yourself? You’re job is under constant siege from technology anyways (via crap apps), why even go into work if you’re only going to use model forecasts and not even market your own forecast? Not to mention the fact that model snow maps are garbage to begin with.

    I do think it’s perfectly reasonable to begin putting numbers on things at this stage, but it should be your own forecast, not a model or a set of models.

      1. Making their own forecast you mean? Yes, most of them usually do, especially within 36-48 hours of the event. The thing with using the model maps is that, outside of ~72 hours, they aren’t worth showing because the accuracy is too low, and inside of that they aren’t worth showing because by then you should have your own numbers. And like TK says, even when a “responsible” met shows the model maps, that’s probably often coming from management pressure, not by their choice.

        In the Boston area, WCVB has been a big offender in recent years with model maps. I know I’ve seen NECN/NBC Boston do it as well. There could certainly be others, I don’t see the Boston newscasts anymore.

        1. I will toss a kudos to Ch 25. Their social media page has Kevin’s actual forecast map up, instead of one of the models, which we have seen media do on their social media pages many times. It just so happens that my early idea of this system matches what Kevin has issued.

        2. I focus more here than anywhere. I am a huge fan of Eric’s and always have been of Pete’s although I cannot find him much any more.

          My point, which I have not done well expressing, is that I understand it exists. But ….and I have said this many times 😉 ….if there is a problem, go to the source.

          Also, if mentioned here, may be a negative could be a positive. Mention the mets you think are best to follow.

          Saying model numbers confused me so it will confuse the average person (if one considers me average). I wasn’t sure who was and who was not doing that. I talked to TK offline and understand better, but it is my nature to turn a negative to a positive.

          And WCVB? Isn’t that Harvey??

  55. Only thing I would say at the moment is that a light snowfall is likely west of 128 with marginally moderate snowfall possible along and north of rt2. I use to see alot more maps of light, moderate, heavy etc 3 days out from a system.

  56. I do love winter storm forecasting… it’s just a lot of fun, very challenging but it allows for a lot of human input to the short and medium range forecast that you don’t really get with a lot of other situations.

    2. For southern New England (mass, ct, ri), they are all too high.

      I agree there will be frozen precip at the start where you see the snow contours on the map.

      However, sleet will invade quickly (each model run has the 500 mb feature and associated warm air advection stronger than the previous run).

      Also going with climatology, ocean temp and to get 2-3 inches of snow would require .2 to .3 melted prior to any changeover. I’m skeptical …..

    4. These are generally decent. NWS may be a tad high compared to my thought process on this, but leaning toward the lower side of that pretty much takes care of it.

    5. Hey I just realized that according to Ch 10’s map, nobody can get between 2 and 3 inches. Only up to 2, or 3 or greater. 😉

  58. Ha …..

    I’m playing around with the 750 mb and 800 mb temps around hr 51 for the 00z NAM
    and it looks to me like there are 0 to +2C contours over southern New England at 800 mb and it’s still accumulating snow ??????

    1. The NAM’s high #’s are because it seems to be wanting to accumulate snow while it’s already raining. 😉

  60. Parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic (IE interior North Carolina up through western Virginia state and eastern West Virginia possibly up into Pennsylvania.
    Also from Eric on twiiter
    “Either way I’d chuck the model snow maps (good idea 100% of the time) since sleet is absolutely a player Thursday night into Friday morning. Warm nose pokes in around 750mb and we start to dry out the snow growth zone on top of that.” #TweetForScientists

      1. Correct. I still think he is too high though. We are only going to have a few hours window to snow before the changeover. We’d have to thump pretty good at an inch per hour rate to get 4 or 5″.

        What are your thoughts on the SREF? He seems to be putting quite a bit of stock into it.

        1. I’m not a huge fan of the SREF. It will nail something, then blow a bunch of things. I haven’t been able to figure out what it excels on yet. Will pay more attention this season.

  62. FV3-GFS drops 7 inches of snow over a 6 hour period in a section of Middlesex County while all the while depicting the precipitation as liquid rain. Remember the comment I made the other day about disregarding snowfall information from that model right now? Yeah.

    1. I am getting the impression that these FV3 models are aggressively high on snowfall. Does this mean #s are always going to be too high regardless of the intensity (or lack thereof) of any snow event?

      1. They are not done adjusting things on that model. It’s still in its experimental stage. It becomes the new GFS, replacing the current one, on January 24. In theory the major “bugs” should be out by then.

      2. Cant speak for TK but so far from what I have seen, yes. However they are making adjustments to the model algorithms before it goes live in January and replaces the current GFS so hopefully those issues will be corrected by then.

    1. Seems like many factors have to go right in order for Boston or even Boston’s suburbs to get 3″. I would say odds are heavily against such an accumulation.

  66. A heavy coating- probably more like 0.5″- of snow on the ground here in Albany this morning associated with a snow squall. We’re seeing the use of the new operational snow squall warnings from the NWS. This is the first time I’ve seen one issued, and I really like the look of it. Here’s an excerpt:

    The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

    * Snow Squall Warning for…
    Southwestern Berkshire County in western Massachusetts…
    Columbia County in east central New York…
    Southwestern Albany County in east central New York…
    Greene County in east central New York…
    Southern Schoharie County in east central New York…

    * Until 715 AM EST.

    * At 629 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
    extending from near North Blenheim to near Austerlitz, moving
    southeast at 40 mph.

    HAZARD…Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind
    gusts up to 30 mph. Flash freeze resulting in icy
    conditions.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Dangerous life-threatening travel.

    * This includes Interstate 87 between exits 21 and 21B.

    This snow squall will be near…
    Austerlitz around 635 AM EST.
    Great Barrington and Housatonic around 645 AM EST.
    Sheffield around 650 AM EST.
    Windham around 655 AM EST.
    Hunter around 700 AM EST.
    Sandisfield around 705 AM EST.
    Tolland and North-South Lake Campground around 715 AM EST.

    1. I do think they should add an expected snowfall duration and/or accumulation. But this is definitely a step forward.

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