Wednesday Forecast

114 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Before we get to the relatively minor, albeit first general measurable snowfall of the season, there is actually weather occurring before that, which I will not skip talking about. That is a blustery northwesterly air flow transporting cold air into the region. In fact a strip of snow showers has made it all the way from the Great Lakes into Massachusetts as of dawn. But that snow won’t be the story today, just the breeze, chill, and plenty of sun. The cold really settles in tonight as high pressure builds in, then this high will slowly retreat during Thursday toward the Maritimes of Canada as our next storm system approaches from the southwest. This system be in the process of maturing and redeveloping just east of itself as it passes through the region during Friday. In advance of it, moisture arriving with cold air in place means snow for most areas at first, though it may start mixed on Cape Cod before going right to rain. The rain will also overtake the immediate coast rather quickly as the water temperatures are still quite mild and the wind will be coming off of it. A little further inland a lighter northerly air flow will keep cold air in longer, allowing a little more accumulation of snowfall. See the detailed forecast below for expected amounts. During Friday, other than a period of freezing rain interior valleys and higher elevations, we’ll see rain expand west and north and overtake the region before tapering off later in the day. Behind this departing system will come another episode of gusty wind, not as strong as the one that rattled your windows overnight. The air mass behind that system is also not as chilly as the one entering the region at this time, although it will be a pretty chilly weekend regardless. By Sunday, a disturbance will approach, bringing cloudiness and eventually some rain or snow showers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy into mid morning with a few light snow showers south central MA into northern RI and interior southeastern MA, then sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH higher elevations, gusts 25-40 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior, 23-30 coast and urban centers. Wind diminishing to calm.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except mix/rain Cape Cod, developing south to north evening and continuing overnight, changing to rain by dawn except pockets of freezing rain central MA and southern NH away from the coast. Snow accumulation before changeover under 1 inch coastline and Cape Cod through Plymouth County of MA, 1-3 inches most areas, except 3-5 inches higher elevations northern I-495 belt northwestward. Lows 22-30 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light N interior areas, E 5-15 MPH elsewhere evening, E 10-20 MPH all areas overnight.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain, pockets of freezing rain valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH early. Rain tapering off late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, shifting to N 10-20 MPH during the day.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain/snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Big 5 days here with pre-Thanksgiving travel weather November 19-21 to take place under generally favorable conditions with a departing disturbance to bring a rain/snow shower early November 19 and a quick frontal passage late November 20 or early November 21 with a few rain/snow showers, otherwise generally dry weather with no major storminess. High pressure should dominate Thanksgiving and “Black Friday” with dry and cool weather for the day of football and food and milder weather for the day of shopping (or avoiding it).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Watch for a wet weather event, likely rain as we’ll be milder in the region, most likely occurring between late November 25 and early November 27.

114 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK.

    I’m actually tempted to go higher than most on snowfall totals for parts of SNE tomorrow night. Reasons being, front-end QPF looks impressive and the low level cold is pretty stout (especially for November) and will not scour out easily. My main concern for not going too high is the potential warm air aloft leading to sleet/freezing rain mixing. Right along the ocean will struggle with boundary layer issues of course, but it will be interesting to see what happens in interior SNE (central MA, northern RI, much of CT, etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised if many of those locations see 3-6″. In other words, I think the main “risk” with this forecast is places get more snow than expected, especially away from the water. But even if not, there will be a lot of sleet/ice in those areas, several hours worth. So it’s a true winter storm, and the impacts will be significant, though the timing may work out so that things are starting to improve by commute time on Friday.

    2. Keep an eye on the NAM’s precip in relation to that convection to the south. I see signs of a bit of CF there.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    After looking over the models, I believe that the GFS and Euro have the best handle
    on this. Keep in mind the ocean temperature is 51.3 (Boston buoy) and the winds will
    be 10-20 mph from the E to ESE. That spells rain fairly quickly along the coast and
    a fair distance inland a bit later.

    My Logan guess is 0.5 inch. I am guessing 1 inch at my house and it goes up some as
    you go inland.

    I am really interested in this one as the snow maps are all over the place.

    My experience with an East wind, even in the dead of Winter, brings a changeover
    fairly quickly. The only caveat is that the retreating High is a pretty cold one, especially for this time of year and that “may” slow the changeover some. Still,
    I don’t think there will be much of an accumulation right along the coast.

  9. im going to go out on a limb here but it looks like the heaviest precipitation is Thursday night to early morning rush, then tapering off to more showery like come mid morning. Just something I am looking at

  10. For the Connecticut folks can I get a start & finish time for Avon & the suspected range of snow accumulation. Thank you

  11. South Shore Kid Snow comes in late afternoon 4-5 pm there and current thinking is 2-4 inches of snow before going to a mix late Thursday night.

  12. Yes for Avon CT. PM commute looks to be slippery in CT tomorrow. Certainly not a lot of snow but the timing is not good.

  15. GFS to me looks like takes the low just south of Long Island then towards the Cape. This is not an all snow track for SNE.

  20. Wow, looking at all the latest models runs across the board (GFS, euro, NAM, ICON, CMC, RGEM, HRDPS), decided uptick in the snow totals with 6z and now 12z runs.

    This looks like a good up front thump of snow.

    I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches being hoisted by the NWS this PM for Worcester County and points west. Perhaps even NW CT.

  21. For inland CT we average 2 inches of snow for November. I think there is a pretty good shot will have above normal snowfall for November.

  23. Jp. Dave when the 12z euro comes out can you post your program’s snow map, I want to compare it to the one I have. the 00z run on mine was showing 9 inches of snow in my area with a 10-1 ratio. If its way off I am going to talk to them about it because they said it was true snow

  29. Saw about 10 snowflakes around 9ish here in Middleborough.
    Kids are already hinting at a no-school, snow day Friday!!!! 🙂

  31. Is the EURO on to something or out to lunch?
    Tweet from Northeastweatherwx
    EURO remains one of the colder solutions. Less ice and sleet, more snow.

  34. On the EURO, I’d sure like to know WHEN the bulk of that snow falls.

    Is it with this initial thrust of the intense frontogenesis John Homenuk mentions above?

    Or is the majority coming when the 500 mb feature catches up to and intensifies the low down by NYC and subsequently provides enough cold air aloft to have the second batch of precip fall as snow.

    Then, the initial cold at the surface might be marginal, even if the column is cold enough from the 500 mb feature. So, you might have elevation dependent, accumulating wet snow on the backside that doesn’t come close to verifying these amounts.

    I remain skeptical.

    1. For SNE, it’s gonna be all about that leading Fgen band. That’s the band I’m concerned is going to over-produce and drop 3-6″ even in SNE. Further inland you’ll get the leading band plus the developing wrap-around comma head which should combine for some double digit totals, but that second batch likely won’t produce much if at all in SNE.

        1. Back from the coast. Not downtown Boston or Medical center. Medical center may get 2 inches or a bit more, maybe If the Euro is correct. Else less.

  35. The Euro clearly takes the low South of SNE and stays off shore some while most
    other models bring right over the center of SNE.

    A bit more South and East and much of SNE will get a pretty decent snowfall (save for immediate coast).

    This is getting interestinger and interestinger.

    18Z NAM coming out now.

    1. There is precedent for decent snows for Boston in November if winds are due N or NNE. Straight NE wouldn’t quite do it with that blowtorch ocean (51) though.

      Frankly I’m surprised the ocean is even that cool considering the well above normal temps over the summer (74F?).

      1. The water temps don’t surprise me at all right now. There is more to changing those temps than weather. Currents drive a lot of it.

  36. Tweets from Ryan Hanrahan:

    With a large area near 32F above our heads tomorrow night we should see a period of giant snow flakes that accumulate readily. Sleet will follow along with a light glaze of icing especially around Hartford. Nasty storm. #nbcct

    Really cold tonight ahead of tomorrow’s storm. Record cold possible in some areas. #nbcct
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1062793628131774466

    Tomorrow’s evening commute looks challenging with heavy snow developing SW to NE across the state. Plenty cold to accumulate on all surfaces. #nbcct

  37. While the winds at 500 MB want to be the system NE or NNE, the winds
    at 200 and 300 mb take a sharp RIGHT hand turn just South of New England.
    That “should” cause the low to slide out just underneath us, perhaps keeping
    the snow going longer over inland locations. OR sleet if the warm nose at
    700mb or so makes it up here as some models project.

  38. Winter Weather Advisories up for southern CT and I would expect them to expand to include more of SNE.

      2. I guess later tonight and tomorrow morning, it will be interesting to see which, if any of these snow projections begin to verify to our south and west.

        Perhaps that will be helpful in assessing if these will be accurate in new england tomorrow night.

        1. for instance, for the top one to verify, it looks like St Louis should be getting 4 to 5 inches.

          For the bottom one, some parts of the appalachians should be getting crushed by morning.

  41. Ok, I can see raising my expectations some for western MA, north-central MA and into the Merrimack Valley.

    I’d still keep them tempered for the north shore, Boston and its suburbs …. and certainly, southeast Mass, otherwise, it may be disappointment city if your expecting a few or more inches of snow.

    1. Sorry for the busted link.

      They have 2-5″ of snow in the WSW area plus a few tenths of an inch of ice on top of that.

      Advisories for the rest of eastern MA and RI outside of the Cape for 1-3″

  48. I am surprised NWS Albany NY has not put Litchfield County in CT under some sort of winter weather alert. One thing about Albany office they either are first to issue a winter weather alert or the last to.

    1. Sure looks like they are dead last today. I would assume they have collaborated with Norton and will put the WSW up for Litchfield County as well.

      1. They didn’t have to rush to put anything out. There are often staffing issues and collaborations to be done. Plenty of time.

  49. There is no reason to me Litchfield County should not be under some sort of winter weather alert. Reading the advisory and watch statements and the snow amounts Norton and Upton not biting on the EURO.

    1. WSW’s are up now for the entire NWS Albany forecast area. 2-5″ plus ice for Litchfield County and 4-6″ further NW.

  51. Just a note for Tropical Tidbits users…

    Nov 14: Scheduled server maintenance between 3pm EST Nov. 17 and 3am EST Nov. 18 may result in delayed model products during that time.

    1. Hey TK…I assume this won’t be around Friday (the snow) or am I wrong? Like is this 1-3″ then washes away?

      1. I’m not sure it washes away so easily, because the precip may actually shut off early. It will, however, largely melt off pavement. Yes it’s cold ahead of this but it hasn’t been cold long enough.

  55. Harvey upped his map for Boston at 1-2”. Previous maps showed 0-1”.

    So Logan may get its first inch yet…and perhaps a teeny bit more. We will see. 🙂

    I “think” the average first inch is around Dec. 7th or so?

  59. As TK indicated, the 10:1 snow maps are polluted by sleet. They just don’t take that into account. Thus the Kuchera maps, although are not perfect, are far superior.

    For example some 10:1 maps have nearly 10 inches for boston, when an inch or 2 is far more realistic. Kuchera maps are generally 1-3 inches for boston. far more realistic.

  63. This is a set up that I probably would go on the higher end of the ranges vs lower. Tough to accomplish that this time of the year but sure looks that way.

    1. I hope it does for you, JpDave, JJ, Mark and all others hoping for it !!

      I look at the 00z NAM and see the big gradient along east coastal MA. Also, the NAM is usually over inflated on snowfall projections.

      I look at the 00z GFS and that snowfall projection looks comparatively depressing. And yes, it seems the last few years, the GFS has run too mild.

      Onto the Euro, I guess.

      I hope folks aren’t setting themselves up for early season disappointment 🙂

  64. I was going in with the mind set this was not going to be a big snowfall thinking 1-3 inches. More than that I will be very happy.

  65. Yawn and good morning….

    Not sure what to make of all of the models. My Euro service has the Nam, GFS and CMC and uses their own Proprietary snow algorithm for them.

    With those 3 plus the Euro, they all have 1.3 to 1.8 inches for Boston and even that “may” be high. We shall see.

    Kuchera snows are about 1 to 4 inches for Boston across models.

    FWIW, the SREF has member mean of 2.92 inches for Boston with members ranging from just above 1/2 inch to nearly 8 inches.

    Will be watching the northward progression of snow followed by change over and then have to watch changeover coming in from the East as well.

      1. Low temps this morning are about 2 to 4 degrees milder than my predicted values. Still plenty cold though!

  66. New post! I really haven’t made any changes to my #’s. I’m not biting on high model #’s that we’ve seen go too high time and time again, especially when sleet is involved. So far, none of my colleagues I’ve chatted with buy them either. Although I wouldn’t be blown away if a couple 6 inch amounts come in, I think most of them will be 5 or lower, basically as outlined yesterday.

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