Friday Forecast

85 Comments

3:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
The winter storm before winter, producing its mid winter type snowfall and ending with sleet and rain, moves out quickly during today. Behind this comes a more tranquil weather pattern. Although we hang onto clouds and damp air as the storm departs today, it will dry out for a good part of the weekend, although a disturbance much weaker than our departing storm will send clouds and light rain/snow back into the region later Sunday into Monday. Behind this comes another surge of cold air. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with areas of rain/drizzle which may mix with or turn back to snow briefly in areas northwest of Boston before ending. Breaking clouds late. Highs 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, shifting to NW during the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: AM mix/rain showers. PM clearing. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Cold/dry for pre-Thanksgiving travel November 21. Cool/dry Thanksgiving November 22 as high pressure dominates. Generally dry with moderating temperatures thereafter, but lower confidence as to whether or not we make it to the very end of the period without the return of some wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Should start wet and milder then turn dry with near to below normal temperatures for the balance of the period.

85 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    Please take it easy out there shoveling! We are no good without our fearless leader. And stay safe on the roads everyone!

  6. Good morning and thank you TK. Enjoy the shows. Who are you seeing?

    Great storm, most especially for this time of year.

    I was expecting 3 inches at my house, and we got just about 5 inches. Looks like Logan got just about 3 and that in itself is impressive with the ocean nearly 52 degrees. Goes to show how bitterly cold that air mass was. I underestimated that effect.

    that was Awesome. Even got to drive in some of it.

    Ok, when is the next one?????

    I want more. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Well the snow may have exceeded my ranges in most of the region, but remember last week when I said Logan would have its first measurable snow in November? 😉 At least I got that right.

      I am seeing Alan Parsons Project this evening in Medford, and Toto on Saturday evening in Lynn.

      1. Thanks, TK.

        Have been reading the blog. Impressive storm. Sudbury got about 6 inches.

        Please take it easy out there. And I ENVY you! Enjoy the concerts! I love Alan Parsons Project and you know I love Toto.

      3. Excellent. You have a wide range in musical taste. Wish I did, but I don’t. My loss.

        YES you did say Boston would receive its first inch mid November.
        I certainly do remember that. 😀

  8. Thanks, TK…
    Enjoy the shows! “Africa” by Toto had a summer resurrection because of Weezer’s cover.
    One of my favorite songs/bands of the 80s…

    Roads are in good shape here in the Taunton/Middleborough area. Lots of mashed potatoes.

    Enjoy the day!

  9. Not sure what we got in Woburn as the rain had compressed some to cement but it sucked moving it and I admit I wasn’t prepared for that amount. Raining good now, hoping my shoveling wasn’t in vain ha.

  10. Thank you. Doing something now, but I’m too lazy to stick my head out the door to find out if it is light rain (which I suspect) or light snow.

    Seems the forecasts pretty much verified for Sutton; and after all, isn’t it all about Sutton? 😉 Seriously, though, it does seem as if the forecasts were very close for the central part of MA. I have to go back to see about CT. Mark?? JJ?? It was east of 495/95 that seems to have pulled a bit of a prank.

    We had a tick under 9 inches. Son in law didn’t shovel until early this am and said it was heaviest he had shoveled which is going some since we have had a few far deeper and very heavy.

    1. Vicki, I didn’t see any forecasts that had widespread 7-9″ across the region although some of the short range models were spitting out amounts like that.

  11. Mark…Thanks for the great tweets yesterday. One was from Scott Nogueira who is a former student of mine! I have a number of former students who chose Meteorology as a career.

    2. A thank you from me also. And to everyone for the great discussion. JPD – your links tell a great story.

      Captain…how justifiably proud you must be.

    3. Wow, small world! His tweet was right on the mark too.

      My pleasure on the posts. It’s fun though I am paying for it at work today…way behind!

  12. Thanks TK
    One last gasp with this storm where I am as I am getting a change back to snow. Nothing major for accumulation. 9 inches of snow I measured before going to sleet.

  13. Good morning again. Just arrived at the office.

    Some morning observations in no particular order:

    Where I measured 3 inches on my sidewalk last night at 11:15, there was nothing or thin slush at 8AM today.

    Where I measured nearly 5 inches on my lawn last night, was a mere 3 inches this
    morning. Some good melting/compression overnight.

    My street needed to be plowed and was.

    Our parking lot at work was plowed out. Seems strange seeing snow banks on
    11/16, but such is life in New England. What do they say? Variety is the spice of life.

    A nasty/thick drizzle falling now in the city. Would much rather snow
    falling.

    And finally to reiterate:

    I am astonished that Logan received as much snow as it did. I saw a report of
    2.7 inches and that was a little before any changeover. For the sake of argument,
    let’s call it 3 inches at Logan on 11/15 with an EAST wind with the Water temperature
    51 degrees!! That is Mighty impressive. Would not have happened without that
    brutally cold air mass out there. IMPRESSIVE!!!

      1. Agreed. It was definitely crazy by around 11ish. Snow gripped the trees but was randomly falling off in clumps. It sounds like there were creatures running around on the roof.

  17. I have a feeling that 2.7 inches for Boston is NOT for Logan. On the NWS website that amount is listed as “General Public”. We may have to wait later for a confirmation from the Airport itself.

    It may very well be accurate but I personally have a bad feeling that Logan is going to be considerably less than the rest of the city. We will see.

  18. On twitter I heard Logan got 1.3 inches Around here in Billerica at about 12:30 the snow changed to all sleet, I then went to bed, but
    before I went to bed, I measured 9.4 inches of snow with some sleet mixed in. Also last night prior to the sleet, I saw lightning and heard a loud clap of thunder. TK, Is there any relationship of snow changing to sleet in which could make it wipe for thunder and lightning? As of now, here in Billerica the rain is starting to change back to snow/sleet or at least trying to.

    Also here is my thought on Winter, I have maps, and stuff and regional predictions for the country. The Northeast is towards the bottom. https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/seasonal-outlooks-3-months-unofficial-fall-2018/

    1. Well often there is a zone of rapid temperature change over short distance near changeover and if there happens to be strong lift there that would result in lightning.

    2. Thanks Matt. I figured that 2.7” was too good to be true even though most neighborhoods including my own would make sense. 😉

      If that 1.3” is correct, that would be average for Logan in November anyway.

        1. What is the criteria to meet nor’easter classification? There are clearly defined blizzard criteria but I’ve not seen nor’easter criteria.

  20. Article in NYT re New York and NJ. A lot of blame. Could it be that, even underforecast, that it hit at the very worst time to areas that, in the best of conditions, are horrific to navigate at rush hour? And truly…..if you know it is going to snow, you…the individual….is the one who makes the final decision. Some self reflection might go a long way.

  21. These are the snow totals from the NWS:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    Didn’t see a report from Logan yet. I had 8.5″ of snow and a bit of sleet, before the change to light rain. It was compacted/melted pretty good this morning down to 4-5″. Glad I did the driveway last night during the changeover to sleet.

    Had a nice little ending burst of snow here this AM and now some peaks of sun are emerging. Great little storm to start the season!

    Vicki and Captain – I responded to your posts above.

  22. 12z GFS, FV-3, CMC, and ICON all advertising the next significant storm around 11/25-26. Looks warmer and wet, although the CMC starts it out as snow while the GFS stalls the storm out of the over the ocean, wraps colder in, and ends it as snow.

  23. Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 3h3 hours ago

    The official record books will show a ‘trace’ of snow in Boston for this one. Lol the Logan snow measurement hijinks. In the city I’d say we got about 2″ before it melted.

    JPDave – you can start your rant now……………

    1. May I start first? When I get home from work later, I may have to shovel that “trace” from my sidewalk and front streps. 😉

  24. Reposting this from the end of the last blog for those that didn’t see it………

    Eric Fisher’s Winter Forecast:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/boston.cbslocal.com/2018/11/15/winter-weather-forecast-snowfall-prediction-boston-massachusetts-new-england-eric-fisher-wbz-tv/amp/

    Colder and snowier than average with prime time for cold and snow chances in February and March, and a possible reprieve in January. 55-65” at Logan with more inland. He does mention the chance of the block setting up in February becoming too strong and shunting storms south a la 2010.

  25. Thanks TK, and thanks to everyone for a lot of good discussion and observation the past couple days. 6″ of snow here in Albany last night, which was actually a bit of an under-performance, although it’s quite common for the city to end up with significantly less than surrounding areas. Lot of terrain impacts here.

    Pattern stays cold relative to normal for the next several days. Wednesday morning in particular looks to have bitter cold potential. Mainly dry. A couple polar disturbances passing through Sunday-Tuesday could mean scattered rain or snow showers, but nothing much. Good weather for pre-Thanksgiving travel. I’m not sold on any significant storm potential for late next week. The big picture pattern is not very supportive, and any precip in that period would be heavily favored to fall as rain. Still watching for a renewed uptick in storminess potential by the very end of the month into early December. But the worst is over for now when it comes to storms, and we will finally get a meaningful period of drying out.

  26. Good afternoon,

    A while ago while out at lunch, there was a very light snow falling upon the city.

    Damn cold out there! Didn’t exactly expect that.

  27. WxWatcher, I meant to say this earlier and not sure anyone mentioned it, but
    kudos to you for picking up on the idea of this event over-achieving. You nailed it.

    2. Thank you. I tried to focus a little more on impact messaging as opposed to exact #’s, which is something I hope to do more of going forward. Even had more of that snow fallen as sleet/freezing rain, it still would’ve been quite a mess.

  28. Re : Logan ….

    same thing seen in Marshfield this morning. At my house, close to the ocean, after receiving an inch last night, it was all melted.

    Drove a few miles west on Rte 139 and went up 20 to 30 ft in elevation, I’m guessing they had received 2-4 inches, a majority of which was still covering all of the ground.

    That has since melted, as we experienced close to 50F for a few hours this morning.

    We might need to take into account the snow cover to our west and north now when taking into account temps the next few days. I would think they underacheive against model predictions.

    1. Whoever wrote that tweet should be ashamed of themselves! I know several of the people who replied and they basically said what I would have.

      1. I am not a fan of finger pointing…which I think everyone is painfully aware of. Criticism of others on any public forum is both inexcusable and of control. I think NY and NJ are ridiculous. Blaming the mayors….pahleezzz. To me, this is even worse. Who in heavens name ever thought forecasts are a perfect science and mets doing their job the best they can are infallible. This is yet another indication that people need to learn to take person responsibility.

  33. So basically this one over-performed in CT and RI, good portions of MA, and under-performed in points north. HRRR had the right idea but did not end up with high enough #’s in the over-performing areas.

    I checked the Ferrier on the 3km NAM off and on during this thing and it was HORRENDOUS. It had basically 2 or 3 inches of snow everywhere. And I mean everywhere, like Cape Cod, CT, the Berkshires, and my mom’s spice rack. 😛 I’m disappointed in that tool which is proving unusable.

    1. Did you have to shovel out your Mom’s spice rack? 😀

      I think tis time to Abandon the facata Ferrier method. I think the Kuchera
      will suffice for now. With the Kuchera and a little bit of experience and thought, one can get a handle on accumulations. Throw in qpf and decent ratio guidance.

      1. The spicy spices took care of it. Throwing heat! 😉

        Kuchera is not perfect but it’s far better than Ferrier where applicable.

        I’m looking back at model performance on this to try to gain some insight on which did the best and which did not, and see if there are differences regionally.

        Ironically the NWS was mentioning 2 model camps regarding the banding energy, the GFS/ECMWF were agreeing on less holding together while the NAM and other short range was stronger. In theory these models built for short range should have had it better, and they did. But I can recall a case (though can’t recall the date) where we had a similar model split last season and it was the GFS/ECMWF that prevailed. So there are clearly complexities with how models handle things with respect to specifics.

        1. Thank you for those details. Certainly not an exact science, that’s for sure. It seems to me that experience is immense
          when it comes to these type of situations. I can’t stand
          the rip and read mets and it seems that these days there
          are just a tad too many of them. (of course you are NOT one of those, thankfully for us)

          I haven’t seen much mention of it, but to me
          that very anomalously cold HIGH over and just to
          the NE of us last evening, had an awful lot to do with holding the snow in here so long despite the warm ocean. And it didn’t hurt that the banding held together pretty much.

  34. For what it’s worth, the CFS has continued its trend to cold/dry on weeklies, even moreso today than yesterday, advertising near to below normal precipitation and below normal temperatures for the next 6 weeks, with the one exception being near to above normal precipitation the last week of November, which is probably due to the model seeing the threat from the Colorado Low we’ve been talking about.

      1. Most likely. It looks like it comes on the heals of a moderation in temperature with not much cold air nearby while it passes. But that would be about 10 days away and if there was trouble forecasting snowfall amounts on the day OF a storm, you know that there can be a world of change between now and then. 🙂

          1. I’m going to assume you’re joking. 🙂

            Making a 45-day deterministic forecast is not something I’m very comfortable with. I’ll leave that for the Accu Weather web page. 😉

  35. Annual outdoor christmas decorations go up the weekend just after Thanksgiving. I hope we do not have heavy rain.

  36. Every one must have been out this Friday evening, including myself.
    Eric said accumulating snow over night Sunday into Monday. He threw out
    something in the order of 1-3 inches. We shall see. Models look a bit confused, but
    primarily are showing rain, so Eric must be onto something.

    Thoughts? comments?

    Cheers and good night.

    1. He was the first tv met to bring up this disturbance a few days ago. This is the same disturbance I’d referenced in the blog about 3 days before that.

      Tomorrow I’ll go back and find exactly where.

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