Monday Forecast

102 Comments

6:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
A busy week has arrived, busy in terms of shopping, travel, holiday gatherings, and oh yes, weather! And since the latter affects all listed before it, let’s focus on what is expected from it. We start the week with 2 relatively minor low pressure waves coming through. The first one brings a very light snow/rain event this morning, with only minor snow accumulation in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH while it winds down as patchy light rain elsewhere due to an advance of milder air in the early morning hours. Between waves clouds hang tough and there is no real delivery of cold air, so for the second wave coming in later tonight into Tuesday we will still see marginal temperatures across the region with a rain/snow line expected to be in the I-95 belt from the NH Seacoast area through northeastern MA and then generally along I-90 (Mass Pike) in areas to the south. However this second wave will carry a bit more punch and as low pressure starts to gather strength as it moves offshore, it will drag a little more cold air into the region, and areas that were raining may end as mix and snow. This system will produce generally light snowfall accumulations from Boston north and west, with a few locally moderate amounts in areas that saw the lighter snow this morning, and that is the north central MA and southwestern NH higher elevations. When we get to Wednesday, a strong arctic cold front will be approaching, and while the daytime will be tolerable though chilly and breezy, a shot of unseasonably cold air will be arriving in the evening, just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, which will be one of the coldest we’ve seen, along with some wind. A few snow showers or snow squalls are possible as this air mass arrives Wednesday evening, but the holiday itself will be dry and bright despite the chilling cold. High pressure will move right overhead Friday which will be a cold/dry day. If you are planning to be one of those overnight / early morning Black Friday shoppers, you had better be prepared for air that would be colder than normal in January, let alone November. You have been warned! Onto the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow/mix southern NH and north central MA with accumulation of 1 inch or less and light rain/mix elsewhere morning. Isolated light rain showers afternoon. Highs 37-44 except 45-52 southern RI through Cape Cod. Wind light variable except S up to 15 MPH South Coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Developing snow/mix central MA and southern NH, mix I-95 belt northwest of Boston, rain to the south and east. Lows 30-36. Wind light NE to N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow north and west, rain south and east changing to mix/snow. Precipitation ending west to east during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches higher elevations north central MA and southern NH, coating to 2 inches elsewhere except little or nothing southeastern MA and RI. Highs 36-43 morning-midday, falling slightly thereafter. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of passing snow showers/squalls evening. Highs 33-39. Rapid temperature drop at night. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NNW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s. Very cold wind chills.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Less wind. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Temperatures moderate November 24-26 with a dry start to the period then increased rain chances as 1 or 2 low pressure areas impact the region. Turning colder with a few rain to snow showers otherwise a drying trend November 27-28.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Overall pattern looks polar jet stream dominated while moisture from the southern jet stream is kept at bay to the south, leaving this area cold and mainly dry with a couple minor precipitation episodes possible.

102 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. The 00z ECMWF, sped up ever-so-slightly, is the most likely general scenario for the next 200+ hours.

  8. Also thanks TK. I used to do black friday shopping like eight years ago because the deals were insane and you had to go that day. Now every place does their black friday sales throughout the entire month and the deals are next to nothing to write home about. So staying warm that day.

    1. I haven’t done Black Friday in 40 years and won’t start back again now.
      In fact, I am thinking of working Friday and taking Wednesday off instead.
      Friday is a skeleton day here, so someone has to work Friday.

      1. Awesome! Do either of you have a specific item you are hunting down? I haven’t seen any big deals this year enough to make me go “time to stand outside in below zero temps!” lol

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A tad bit more precipitation today than I expected. Did NOT expect any snow in the city.

    re: Tomorrow
    IF Boston gets any snow, it will be on the back end as somewhat colder air works in. Frankly, I am not expecting any accumulation in the City.

    Beyond tomorrow, other than the cold for T-day, I dunno. Will wait and watch.

  11. 0Z Euro has RAINORAMAS for 11/26 and again on 11/27!!

    Nice! That should seal the deal for Wettest Autumn on record or damn close to it.

    1. Indeed. Now that we’re in pretty much perpetual precipitation mode (I cannot recall the last 3 day stretch without precipitation), let’s seal the deal. My goodness, it’s been dreary and wet. Even the ducks are saying, “enough is enough.”

    1. It is pretty amazing. Last time this happened was in the 60s, I believe.
      I actually skiied Mt. Snow under ideal full blown Winter conditions
      on Veteran’s Day, 11/11.

      There was a series of 3 Snow storms, ALL delivering well over a foot
      to the Ski areas ( all rain in Boston). I went skiing after event #2 and before
      event #3. So much snow it was unbelievable and Mt. Snow was inundated
      with skiers. Way more than they expected, so they had to open additional
      lifts that were not planned to be opened.

      Sad that it turned out to be the best skiing of the season as the rest
      of the Winter turned out to be a COLOSSAL DUD! Hope that doesn’t
      happen this year.

  13. Thanks TK. Luckily tomorrow’s system has sped up a bit and shifted far enough north that I don’t think the travel will be too bad, at least in the highly populated areas. Could be a different story to the north. That air mass coming in for Thursday-Friday is remarkable. We don’t see cold like that often at any time of year, much less in November.

  14. Not to say the exact details will verify, but I think TK would be in agreement with the long range pattern on the 12z GFS. It’s that classic split-jet look with the storminess in the southern stream held at bay to our south and us in the polar jet mainly cool and dry. Exactly what he talks about in the 11-15 day above. That sort of pattern may feature heavily this winter.

      1. My fear is that whenever the jet streams do merge, warm air will get injected in advance or later and SNE ends up with quick snows to rainoramas or straight rainoramas. It is just a bad feeling that has happened in similar cold & dry winters. Maybe I’m mistaken.

    2. The FV-3 does not look like the regular GFS with respect to the split flow setup, except near the tail end. It is advertising storms on 11/27 and 12/2.

  15. JP Dave, as you may know I talk to ducks and geese regularly on my morning jogs in the Esplanade Park and along the banks of the Charles. I sort of feel they know me, or at least recognize me. I realize I’m attributing far too much intelligence to these creatures. But, in anthropomorphizing them I’ve learned to interpret (i.e., imagine) their views on the weather. Right now, the prevailing view among the anitidae: Two quacks or honks = “weather sucks.” Later this week, I’ll probably hear five loud quacks or honks = “what’s preventing us from migrating to Mexico?”

    2. Wonderful. I think I actually understand what you are saying.
      Not unlike the way a dog makes sounds are shows a facial expression that
      you know means something. 😀

  16. In terms of the models, I do not trust any of after Thanksgiving, heck the cape has a slight chance of ocean snow showers Friday

  18. 12z Euro has back to back coastal storms on Sunday 11/25 and Tuesday 11/27. Both are soakers for SNE. Another 3″ of rain total through hour 240 – that would put many areas at 9-10″ by month’s end.

  19. Twice, once in the snowstorm late last week and this coming Thursday, the arctic will have been tapped, sending impressive cold air masses into New England.

    At least on the EURO, seems in the long term that while there will be episodes of chilly weather, that the polar or arctic airmasses will retreat back north to the arctic circle.

    Perhaps to re-load and be tapped again in early December ……

    1. So let me see IF I have this straight.
      On the current run, FV3 sees things better than regular GFS, HOWEVER.
      it is still not fixed?

      Did I interpret you cryptic message properly or am I still out to lunch and haven’t returned yet?

      1. I really only meant it as that it is better than it was, but not good enough. It is back and forth in comparison to the GFS. Sometimes better (rarely), most of the time not quite as good. It occasional has been getting the large scale pattern more accurate than the current GFS, but with nothing close to consistency, hence the need for further tweaking.

  21. So let me see IF I have this straight.
    On the current run, FV3 sees things better than regular GFS, HOWEVER.
    it is still not fixed?

    Did I interpret you cryptic message properly or am I still out to lunch and haven’t returned yet?

    1. huh what??? Word Press is whacked out today. I got an error message saying I was trying to post a duplicate post. So I hit enter again and you see what happened.

    1. I expect those and I expect some of them to be potent. The good news is that the Wednesday evening commute is a shadow of the Tuesday one as that trend has shifted to Tuesday being the busiest road travel rush hour evening on Thanksgiving Week, even though year after year the media insist it’s Wednesday. 🙂

  23. Latest guidance still keeps Snow to our North and West tomorrow. I suppose things “could” change, but not looking like any snow in the City.

  24. JP Dave I replied to one of your messages about FV3 up there.

    Dr. Stupid, so you don’t have to scroll back to find my reply, regarding the Black Friday shopping. Neither of us are looking for anything specific. In fact I am only going in a support role and maybe for the 2AM snack at the Burlington Mall food court. 😉 She may have something specific in mind but I’m not sure yet.

    As far as bitter cold. I’m fine with that. My boots, hat, and layers that I use have protected me easily in recent temps up to -12 (without wind chill factored in). Any time outside will be minimal.

  25. as of today we are on route to being 7th warmest on record in Boston. 4 of the top 5 warmest have happened in the last decade……….

      1. I’d lean toward the mid 20s versus the upper 10s because I think the core of the cold may pass by a little more quickly than modeled. Small consolation but a few degrees anyway. 😉

  27. Thank you, TK. I forgot to thank you earlier today.

    Matt, this year began with anomalous cold the first week of January, and at least in late November and perhaps most of December will end on several anomalous cold notes. Yet, in between is where we saw several very warm bursts. I’d say the most surprising was not the highs this past summer, but the prolonged stretch in which the lows did not get below 70F.

    Vicki, thanks for sending me the man and goose story. That was very interesting.

  28. Been reading this blog for a few months (thanks to the author!) as a very recent transplant to New England from the upper Midwest. I enjoy following the weather at a level deeper than TV forecasters provide, though I have no scientific training. I enjoy reading the discussions here – I learn a lot. So thanks to all who contribute. I also love snow and cold, so I welcomed the dumping last week.

    I’m really surprised (unpleasantly so!) that the forecast cold for later this week is so anomalous. I’ve always thought of New England winters as being similar to those of Wisconsin, where I grew up. There, highs in the teens or twenties on Thanksgiving are below normal, but certainly not surprising. Subzero lows in late November happen every few years. I remember ice skating on the local pond on Thanksgiving a few times as a kid. Sub freezing highs and sustained snow cover are the norm basically from December 1 onward into March. So it’s surprising to me how much attention these cold temperatures are getting here.

    Are sub freezing highs really that rare around here this time of year? Have I been oversold on New England winters?

    1. Welcome! And yes, sub-freezing high temps are not too common around here in November. They have happened, but not often. 🙂

    2. Welcome, SM.

      My brother lived in Wisconsin for many years. Indeed, he spoke of quite a number of bone-chilling late Novembers, as did my daughter who went to college in Minnesota.

      Boston and vicinity generally do not see harsh cold (say, teens and below) until December. Also, in winter the cold itself is generally: a. not as persistent as it is in Wisconsin; b. not quite as `Arctic.’ Record lows in Green Bay, for example, are lower than record lows in Boston, on any given day in winter. This said, the snows that fall here in winter are different from the Upper Midwest and are sometimes more impactful and more dramatic, due to their moisture-laden nature.

      New England is a large region, with significant variation (even more than the large state of Wisconsin). The variation is due in part to the proximity of the ocean. So, even when it may feel `mild’ by comparison in SNE, Northern Maine can be brutally cold. It seems that Northern Maine never escapes winter, even when SNE does. I believe Northern Wisconsin and Northern Maine share this in common.

    3. Welcome. It is always fun to have a new family member join us. New England winters are not quite as cold as they once were. But I think you’ll love this part of the country.

    4. Welcome SM!

      The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
      And a wave broke over the railing
      And every man knew, as the captain did too,
      T’was the witch of November come stealin’

      (from “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald”)

  29. SM welcome to the blog. I also enjoy cold and snow like you do and it was a nice start to the snow season last Thursday.

  30. Thanks all! I likely will not post much as I have neither the knowledge nor local experience to contribute a great deal. But I will be reading and chiming in occasionally – I’ve followed a couple other daily weather blogs that went into similar detail in other places I’ve lived, but none had comments sections with such educated and kind spirited discussion. It’s nice to have a place where someone like me can learn about weather from people who really know their stuff, and ask questions where appropriate.

    At the very least, I’m glad to be living somewhere with four distinct seasons, even if the best of the cold is not as regular/intense.

    1. Welcome SM! I’m willing to bet your base of knowledge is broader than mine but I have always been welcomed here with open arms. I do try very hard to absorb as much of the science as possible, but mine is completely a social sciences mind I’m afraid! However no matter the depth of your technical expertise you will find a great family here at WHW!

  31. Welcome SM. I’m coming out of my summer “hibernation” and lack of postings. I spent four years in Chicago and one Easter in the Wisconsin Dells — one I will always remember for a great hike and a chilly canoe down a farmland stream. I look forward to winter’s arrival now that my rail fence repairs were completed on Saturday. Again, welcome aboard…hopefully NOT the wreck of the EF.

    1. Awesome to see you here also. How can you not LOVE winter. So many family members return to the blog and new ones arrive. Arod will be here soon too.

  32. You don’t see a shot like this in Virginia very often in Mid-November.

    Ryan Hanrahan Retweeted
    ShenandoahNPS‏Verified account @ShenandoahNPS · Nov 18

    Views from the Skyline Drive yesterday. The entire length of the Drive is still closed as crews continue to clear trees and ice. For the most up-to-date status, please call 540-999-3500 (select option 1, then option 1).

    https://twitter.com/ShenandoahNPS/status/1064278115009118210

  34. Eric Fisher‏ tweet:

    Because we (and DPW crews) don’t have enough to keep our eyes on…as the low departs Tuesday evening winds go NW and temps fall near/below freezing. A quick freeze-up is possible on roads and sidewalks 5-8pm.

    1. Yikes. I haven’t checked my sink hole lately because I don’t want to 🙁 And too many have far worse problem

  38. What is the wettest November on record for Boston? I thought I heard Eric say that the wet pattern will continue into December as well. I was under the impression that we would get a dry stretch soon but it appears more rain next week as well.

    1. I have been talking about the threat for early next week for quite a while. The overall pattern is already drier. These systems are starting to produce less precipitation. The next 4 weeks will be drier than normal, but it doesn’t mean we can’t get precipitation. 🙂

  39. Not sure on the annual rainfall record for Boston. As wet as it has been, I would think that is not in jeopardy but might be getting close on the Autumn record before long.

    It certainly does appear that the wet pattern is going to continue for awhile longer, at least in the short to mid range. Persistence.

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