Thursday Forecast

43 Comments

8:34AM

Happy Thanksgiving to all! I am thankful to have so many people reading and commenting on my blog every day! I truly enjoy writing it. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Short and sweet today, just a quick update. Y’all know it’s one of the coldest Thanksgivings on record, but at least there is no storminess to deal with. The edge comes off the cold for Black Friday as the wind is absent underneath high pressure. High pressure moves off to the east and low pressure approaches from the west Saturday, and by the time its precipitation arrives it will have warmed enough so we’re only talking about rain, which tapers off early Sunday then returns with the arrival of a second low pressure system from west to east Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times especially morning.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arrives at night. Temperatures rise to the 40s. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. AM fog, PM rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Broad low pressure stretches out north of the region then drifts away as it turns colder and breezy with a few rain to snow showers November 27-28. High pressure should keep the region generally dry and seasonably chilly for the last couple days of November. Low pressure approaching will bring some unsettled weather to the region by December 1 based on current timing, though this does not look like a major storm at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Minor storm system expected to bring unsettled weather to start the period followed by mainly fair and colder weather. Watch for another system late in the period with a precipitation threat. Temperatures near to below normal.

43 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK and Happy Thanksgiving everyone. nice write up for the winter outlook. I am hoping for more snow than your calling for. Hartford only needs 22.1 more inches of snow to reach the low end of your range.

  5. Thankful for you, TK, your work on this blog and the WHW family.
    This is a fun and great place to hang out!

    Wishing you all a special day today with family and friends, great fun, food, football and fellowship!

  6. Off to the Woburn / Winchester Thanksgiving Day football game!

    Woburn is hosting! Nate & I are walking down – very short walk.

  7. Happy Thanksgiving to All!

    And when I got up it was 13 F but I think I am up to 15 now. Might make it to 20 around 2 PM.

  9. Morning low in NYC was 19 which ties for second coldest Thanksgiving morning on record. The coldest Thanksgiving morning in NYC history 15 in 1871.

  10. Happy Thanksgiving everyone and thanks TK. Great discussion on the winter weather forecast as always. Still think February has some decent potential depending on the strength and positioning of the blocking. Getting a couple coastal storms up here vs being shunted out to our south will probably be the difference between an above normal winter and below normal winter here. A couple questions:

    1. BDL is already sitting at 8” on the month. I think Worcester got similar. Is that factored into your 30-40” prediction for Hartford? If it is, I would be surprised if we only received another 22-32” of snow the rest of the winter. If it isn’t, the additional 30-40” would put us in the normal range for the winter which seems more reasonable to me.

    2. What do you think this northern jet stream dominated pattern means for the ski areas of northern New England? Cold temps and good snowmaking weather for sure, but are they bone dry or do they capitalize on any clipper type systems or upsloping snows?

    Thanks!

  12. Just a tad nippy today. Just reached 20 here after an overnight low of 12.

    Of course it will be wasted cold to say the least. Just a nuisance.

    The only good I can see in this cold is the ability of ski areas to lay down a ton
    of snow.

    But for me, If it isn’t going to snow, then I’d rather it be 60 degrees this
    Thanksgiving.

    Looking for snow in ye old crystal ball, keeps coming up Empty.
    I just don’t like what I see. Of course it isn’t Winter yet, so we shall see.

  13. My accurite says 22. Surrounding wunder stations range 16-18. This is when I prefer to go with them. I think the fan on the system works well in full sun but is not perfect. When there is no sun, my system is in line with the closest.

  14. The parade was wonderful as always. Only rhe grinch misbehaved and it wouldn’t be the holidays if he didn’t.

    I was a bit dismayed to find out I am older than the pillsbury dough boy. But it was being older than snoopy that threw me 😉

  15. Temp has started out at 1 and now is at 9 in Bartlett, NH. We split two cord of woood but had to take breaks inside. Very cold day.

  16. And so it goes…12Z Euro shows 3 storms in the next 10 days,

    1. coastal running into very mild air
    2. Inside runner
    3. Lakes Cutter

    No snow with 1, and varying amounts up North only with 2 & 3.

    Shows no storms running out South of us.

    And shows plenty wet coming up.

  18. Mark…
    To answer your questions, my snowfall amount does factor in what already fell. If I’m going to be incorrect anyplace it’s probably further south rather than North. The pattern that I expect would be a good pattern for the ski areas. Abundant snowmaking. Frequent snow events even if light will keep topping off the snow.

      1. We did – first time that we hosted the day and my husband made the best turkey any of us have ever eaten. Of course I’m sure getting his Masters in France in Food didn’t hurt his chances at hitting it out of the park on the first turkey. But we’ve been married since 2001 so now the family knows what kind of talent we left on the bench these past 17 years – lol!

  20. I’m just in from a peaceful few moments on the deck. And I do mean a few. I’ll need to find more than a tee and sweatshirt for 10 degrees. But even seven minutes was lovely

    I hope everyone had a wonderful day and found a few moments to enjoy their peace.

  22. Good morning,

    I hope all had a great Thanksgiving day. I am in the office this morning
    as I swapped today with Wednesday as I needed Wed off more than I needed
    today off.

    Yes, it was chilly this morning (and yesterday AM), but invigorating. Not bad at all. The only difference yesterday and today was that we had to throw on a heavier coat and slip on a pair of gloves. Other than that NOTHING changed. No big deal. We all did what we wanted to do and go where we wanted to go. I think the only challenge was for those poor folks with no heat in the Lawrence area and the homeless on the streets of Boston. For those, the cold really mattered. To the rest of us, a shrug of the shoulder and carry on.

  23. re: upcoming weather
    Of course a model run doesn’t necessarily equate to reality, but based on what I
    am seeing, it surely doesn’t look dry ahead. In fact it looks nearly as wet as it has been.
    And regarding snow chances? hardy har har ha ha ha….Yeah right.

    Let’s see, a coastal with ZERO cold air And 2 cutters with some sort of coastal development too little,too late for SNE, perhaps providing decent snows to the Ski Areas and a “slight” chance for some back end snows in SNE with one of them. 😀 😀
    Of course, subject to change as usual.

    Is this going to be the WINTER of the CUTTER?????????????????????

    I am NOT liking what I see so far. This pattern blows chunks.

    1. If you take the 06z GFS, for example, Boston’s total precip through 384 hours is barely over 1 inch. That is definitely not as wet as it has been. 🙂 And I think that model may actually be depicting too much southern moisture being involved.

  24. JPD does accurite measure sleet or wet snow as precip? I noticed I had something like .60 last Thursday but we never really had rain or sleet. Of course it could have been after I fell asleep. I wondered if that was from wet snow?

    1. Not sure how that thing gets tripped during Winter events.I presume sleet and/or snow can clog it up? I see 2 possible scenarios or a combination of both:

      1. The snow or sleet trips it at whatever it thinks is 0.01 inch, but sooner or later it would get clogged.
      2. It actually get clogged up and then it won’t measure anything until a melt and then will only measure what is in there.

      bottom line, there is NO accuracy in the precipitation measurements
      for Snow/Sleet. For that snow event last week, my Accurite ended up measuring 1.3 inches. SO I think snow blew in there and piled up, then
      melted resulting in more qpf than actually fell. I think any way. 😀

      1. You need a far more expensive model that has a heated collector
        such that frozen precip is instantly melted and measure
        appropriately.

        OR you do it the old fashion way by taking a regular rain
        gauge and melting the collected snow and pouring it back
        into the rain gauge to see what it measures.

  25. Interesting tweet for NYC from Judah Cohen
    #NewYorkCity has three famous outdoor events each year. The two cold season events-New Year’s eve and the Macy’s Day Parade had their coldest events ever in the same calendar year of 2018. Coincidence, maybe but the physical mechanism is the same:

  26. Looking at the image of the 0z EURO Ed Vallee tweeted for early next week. Too bad that snow area can’t shift a little bit further south and east. VT, NH, ME, and the Berkshires looks to get in on the snow. I hate being so close yet so far from snow.

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