Friday Forecast

51 Comments

10:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Another quick update today as folks recover from food comas or overnight shopping excursions. I may be doing a bit of both myself! High pressure dominates, cold and dry today. Low pressure approaches Saturday as it warms up, enough so that we’ll see a rain event Saturday night and Sunday morning. A second storm will deliver a similar result Monday before it elongates and lifts north of the region, leaving the area with a few lingering rain/snow showers Tuesday as a drying process begins. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-47. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Rain ending by mid morning. Highs 41-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod in the morning.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Scattered rain showers day. Isolated snow showers evening. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
As low pressure lifts away a gusty wind, colder, and a few possible snow showers November 28. High pressure brings fair and chilly weather November 29-30. Low pressure may bring some unsettled weather to start December but not highly confident on this.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)
A low pressure area may bring unsettled weather early in this period otherwise mainly dry weather expected. Temperatures briefly milder to start the period then trending colder.

51 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thank you for the update.

    You mentioned food coma. Well, I feel like shit. I ate so much, My stomach
    almost blew up, seriously. I had a belly ache all night long. My own damn fault!!!

    Trying to work it off.

    1. I did ok. Paced it. I was up at 6AM and not long after that started with a glass of eggnog (not spiked haha) then a small bowl of cereal shortly after that. Didn’t want to put too much liquid into me knowing I’d be outside at football game for over 2 hours.

      When I got back and could feel my hands enough to pick up food picked on the veggie appetizers, then had the full dinner, and I mean the full dinner, but I did not overdo it. 🙂 Later on in the evening had hot cider, pumpkin pie, and a cannoli followed by tea. That set me up for a late night shopping run (actually just keeping a friend company as I didn’t do any shopping) that took me to Merrimack NH and Burlington MA between midnight and 2:30AM.

      A short nap and I’m ready to go today! Lots on the agenda!

  2. Thanks Tk . Looks like another lost work day Sunday . This has been a terrible fall for me with the rain just about every weekend.

      1. You have mid morning Tk . Landscaping can’t start at 11 it’s a wash . If it’s fine by 8 & can get on the job by 9 than it can be done .

  4. Our Saturday night rain event is going to be losing support as it comes by here. I am thinking under 1/2 inch of rain for the region most of it between 9PM Saturday and 8AM Sunday. Most of Sunday will be rain-free.

      1. So far I think anything steady is gone by then. I have all along. I don’t agree with the forecasts that keep it rainy all day.

    2. I agree on the low rain totals. Last two runs of the 3km NAM basically keep eastern MA dry. That’s probably a little extreme, but I would certainly bet on under 0.5” for most with any steady rain done by mid-morning. Could be some lingering drizzle for much of the day though on an easterly flow with the low levels slow to dry out.

  6. Despite the overall dry pattern it probably won’t feel like it as we have a series of storms still but less precipitation with them. I think it matters more of how many days are cloudy and wet than how much rain we truly get. For people like SSK I bet it does not matter how much rain you actually get but the number of days it rains. Not sure but just a feeling.
    First wave of precipitation could see some pockets of freezing rain, mainly colder locations before changing to all rain as lows look to be right around freezing Saturday night. Most though will see just plain rain.
    Second wave has the ability to put snow in ski country while we get rain but even then its mainly for areas in northern NH and interior Maine.
    Third wave scrap all the models they have no clue in my opinion for the first week of December. Operational gfs has a big area of low pressure over the northern plains/lakes while a weak low travels off the mid-atlantic. The Ensembles of the gfs shows a low traveling south or over SE mass during the same time.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018112306&fh=258

  8. Thanks TK.

    Chilly morning here in Amsterdam NY. We hit 0 for a low! Coldest morning I can remember this early in the season. There is a solid dense snow cover here with about 4” on the ground. Planning on doing some xcountry tomorrow AM up at Lapland Lake in the southern Adirondacks (it’s a Finnish themed Nordic center) before the precip comes in. They depend entirely on natural snow and are nearly 100% open. Might not be the case after the next two storms.

    Vicki – you mentioned your Acurite only recorded 0.6” precip during the snow/mix storm last week. I recorded nearly the exact same amount with mine and am certain it must have gotten clogged. We surely received more rain and melted frozen than that. Even with that skewed measurement, still pushing 7” on the month.

    1. Thank you Mark. It went along with my suspicion but this is my first winter. Truly appreciated. Enjoy your time in NY

    1. @TylerJankoski
      Saranac Lake is at -17!! That smashes the old record low for today, which was -2 in 2000. Records go back to 1903.

      As a point of comparison, the coldest temp in the entire state of Alaska this am was-20 at Arctic Village.

    1. Jason
      @jjoseph19958
      ·
      1h
      Replying to
      @ryanhanrahan
      New CFS says not for long. I know- it’s the CFS. quite possibly the worst model out there

      Ryan Hanrahan
      @ryanhanrahan
      ·
      1h
      December may be a torch

    1. 😀 you made my day. Welcome back JMA, we’ve missed your informative posts.

      Do you have a Winter forecast you can share, or at least an approximate snow amount?

      Many thanks

  15. Tomorrow night’s system is one where we would really be pulling hair out if it were winter. You’ve got guidance spread in QPF from next to nothing up to near 2″. It’s a very complex setup, because as TK said it will be losing support overall, but we may end up right in the teeth of a small but potent low just to our south or almost overhead, like the Euro shows. Or that low may not materialize or end up too far south/east. The hi-res guidance is offering a lot of really interesting and highly varied solutions that you can’t really explain without seeing them.

    15z SREF made a big shift to wetter, so we’ll see if the 18z NAM follows suit. In particular I want to see if the 3km still shows a mainly dry outcome. But it is a very good thing we’re only talking about a rain event over a holiday weekend and not something more consequential.

    1. That’s a more than 2 degree drop in about 48 hrs, I believe. I think it was 51.2 the day before Thanksgiving.

      1. Yup, something like that. I’d say we’re pretty much back to normal as far as SSTs go. However, it will probably go back up
        some after the series of warmer storms. One never knows.

  19. Downright cold today!
    Feeling colder now that the sun is below the treeline.

    We (Taunton/Norton) stand at 64.59″ rainfall for the year. We are so close to
    the “modern day” record of 65.24″ in 2005 measured at KBOX.

    The all-time mark is 67.23″ from 1898 recorded at the Taunton Water Works in the downtown area.

    I was looking at weather records past Thanksgivings. This was harder than I first taught. Thanksgiving has been celebrated from November 22-30. In 1941, some parts of the nation celebrated the holiday on November 20! So it was a tough task trying to find Thanksgiving weather data because it is a “movable feast.”

    I knew that the country changed the date of Thanksgiving in 1939 from the last Thursday to the fourth Thursday of November. What I didn’t know is that, from 1939-1941, half of the country celebrated the holiday on the new early Thursday and the other half celebrated the day on the traditional last Thursday!!!
    I am not going into detail here, but if you’re interested, google “Franksgiving.”

    I try to be a live for the moment, live for the day person, but we are within four minutes and 15 days of the earliest sunset of the year!

  22. According to Barry, 2 inches of rain will fall between now and Tuesday.

    1” + 1” = 2” (each event will bring 1 inch)

    TK – When do we get out of this wet regime?

    1. I’m still not convinced we get that much rain in either system. The pattern is already somewhat different. Trace the origin and make up of these systems and it’s a little different than the October ones. It’s just been a slow transition.

      1. Well, the futurecast radar Dave Epstein had this morning showed lots of yellows and reds for between 3AM-8AM moving through our area. And his model showed 1”+ rains for most!

        Since I have to commute to work as usual, I hope your thoughts verify! 🙂

  23. TK, what are the chances of the weather improving tomorrow afternoon to finish up the fall clean up in my yard?

    1. I think we lose the steady rain sometime in the morning but we may never fully get rid of the drizzle. If you can work in that, you’re probably fine by noon, perhaps even before.

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