Sunday Forecast

50 Comments

7:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
The first of 2 wet weather systems is ongoing but will gradually loosen its grip on the region today as steady rain winds down, some drizzle lingers, and eventually drier air takes over as the low center departs to the southeast and east of New England. The second system will follow a similar track to the first, maybe a bit further north, bringing more wet weather into the region by Monday afternoon/night. As this system departs Tuesday, a drying process will take place but a few rain showers may linger, and these showers may linger into Wednesday but in the form of snow showers as a cold upper level low pressure area swings across the region. A drier northwesterly air flow will take over by Thursday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Rain ending by mid morning. Areas of drizzle and perhaps an isolated rain shower through midday. Highs 41-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod in the morning.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 37-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, light variable, then light E before dawn.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely by afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 40-46. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 36-41 interior MA and southern NH, holding steady 40-46 or even rising slightly to the south. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SE to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers early, then variably cloudy with passing rain showers possible. Highs 42-48 morning, gradually cooling back to the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts in areas to the S, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Transitional pattern during this period so a little lower on confidence with time. Chilly northwest flow may contain a disturbance with snow showers November 30. High pressure with dry weather December 1. Advancing low pressure from west may bring wet weather (favoring rain) later December 2 to early December 4.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Colder weather during this period, a few snow shower threats would be most likely from disturbances in the polar jet stream with less of a chance of any moisture from the subtropical jet stream reaching the region, although can’t rule that out as sometimes medium range guidance does not see them this far in advance and that stream will still be somewhat active.

50 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. According to Barry, so far this month is running -2.5 degrees which by rule means a rough winter.

    Are these prolific 1”+ rains going to be all winter long in between cold & dry times?

    1. In my opinion, they shouldn’t continue all winter. We should be headed into a drier pattern with smaller precip events 1 inch, but the frequency should drop off substantially.

      1. I guess WordPress doesn’t do inequality signs (less than, greater than) and thus, the 2nd part of my response doesn’t make sense. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Thank you, TK.

    0.68 in Back Bay, according to my gauge. Less than I thought would fall. I may even venture out for a run, though I’m sure there will be lot of puddles and mud.

  10. 0.52 Sutton at 11:00. It sure is a cold rain …big, slushy drops

    I’m trying to figure out what possible reason Apple had to put am UNDO bar beside the space bar when you use numbers. I undo my entire comment more often than not

    1. Remember at one point “the models” were showing Christmas 2017 as mild and dry, and what happened? 🙂

      2. Well…Mac happened of course. We had a substantial snowfall on our Dec 9 anniversary and snow was still on the ground for Christmas 🙂

          1. No, it was last year. Although I recall enough of a forecast for 2005 that the day head I chose to attend a meeting by phone and not in person

  12. Mother Nature provided a nice gift to give a White Christmas last year. Hopefully will have a White Christmas two years in a row.

    1. My basement would sure like that as a nice Christmas present. I would be curious though if back-to-back white Christmases have ever occurred in Boston.

  15. I remember that storm Vicki mentioned on December 9th 2005. The storm under went bombogensis and there were hurricane force wind gusts on the Cape. The sun was out where I was and the snow was done so I did not experience that.
    12z GFS does have accumulating snow for December 9th this year.

    1. Last year we had a dec 9 storm. That was the one I meant but was not clear. Sorry. But it was nothing like the 2005….and several others on dec 9 including dec 9, 1978. For 2005 and 1978 we had thunder snow where I was

  16. Thanks TK. 1.12″ was the total in Wrentham before I left earlier, back in Albany now. Higher totals near 2″ to our southwest down near NYC and over much of NJ where there was considerable river flooding. And much less to the west and north. That was a very complex and hard to forecast system, and as I said the other day it’s a very good thing for meteorologists that it didn’t involve snow.

  18. This system for Monday night/Tuesday is so close yet to far to be a snow producer here as the low travels over, but gives ski country some good snow.

  19. 1.26″ last night/early this morning at the National Weather Service office in Norton which puts the 2018 total at 65.85″. That amount breaks the all-time KBOX record of 65.24″ set in 2005. Records were first kept at the office starting in 1996.
    We have had an amazing 26.96″ of precipitation during Meteorological Autumn, most of which has passed through my sump pump!!!

    In fact, the ground is so wet that a few of my Christmas decorations keep toppling over. The 50-foot Christmas tree on the Taunton Green crashed to the ground last week because the ground was so unstable.

    1. Wow. Thanks captain.

      We have not decorated outside. I have some of the teak isle decorations and need to get the metal stakes well into the ground. My daughter in Uxbridge was still pulling carrots from her garden early last week. On thanksgiving day the ground was so frozen, her husband had to use a metal shovel to get them out.

      Looks as if the ground has unfrozen enough. Now if the rain would stop. 🙂

  20. So a little look back at my precip forecast for this event, decent north, not high enough south. I got it half right. 😛 At least in general the timing worked out about as expected.

  22. Good Monday morning to all. Yet another cloudy day in what seems to be an
    endless succession of cloudy days. I wonder what the sun meter is reading.

    My YUCK meter is about to break. Have a look:
    https://imgur.com/a/pQsvgMg

    My overall feelings about upcoming weather….PUKEORAMA! I am sick to death
    of Cutters!*(@#*(!@^&*#^!@#*(&!@*(&#*(!@&#*&!@*(#&!*(@&#*(@

  23. Blog update soon.

    Upcoming pattern holds some hope for snow lovers and may get things rolling toward an above normal snow December for at least parts of the region.

  24. Surprised to see it raining in the city . Is this the same system scheduled for later today/ tonight making an early appearance

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