Tuesday Forecast

100 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
The storm that has been on my “radar” for 2 weeks finally departs today, slowly, kind of. As it lifts to the north and the old primary low elongates as the secondary pulls away toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will set up a broad westerly flow across the region with a slow drying-out process getting underway during the course of the day, though it won’t seem like that at first, starting out with low pressure overhead and plenty of low level moisture. But by this evening, you’ll notice the change, and this will continue through Wednesday, which will still be somewhat unsettled as a broad upper level low pressure area still has to transit the region from west to east, and with colder air incoming, this will result in a few rain and snow showers. We will have 2 fully dry calendar days Thursday and Friday, the first with a gusty northwesterly breeze between broad low pressure to the east and high pressure building in from the west, the second more tranquil with high pressure overhead. A weakening disturbance will be crossing the region early Saturday and may produce brief light rain and/or snow. As much as I’d like to tell you we’re done with the series of storms, we’re not, and another will approach later Saturday, spreading clouds right back into the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of drizzle/fog seacoast NH, eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT while showers of rain and higher elevation snow occur central MA to interior southern NH with minor snow accumulation possible in Worcester Hills of north central MA and Monadnocks of NH. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain/mix shower. Temperatures start the day 34-40 interior higher elevations, 41-47 elsewhere, and very gradually fall. Wind E 5-15 MPH eastern coastal areas, light variable elsewhere through mid morning, then becoming W all areas and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Lows 26-32. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of passing rain and snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain/mix/snow possible early. Rain arriving by late night. Dry most of daytime. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Transitional pattern. December 2 sees rain to start, drying to end. A break December 3. Next system brings rain and/or snow later December 4 into December 5, with colder air coming in during and after its passage.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
Overall colder pattern becomes established as we head into a polar jet stream dominated set-up but cannot rule out at least some moisture from the subtropical jet still becoming involved with a passing northern system. While the overall trend is toward drier, as in less southern jet stream storminess impacting the region, it’s still an active pattern for the polar jet with colder air and so the chance of minor but colder systems increases.

100 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK.

    I think I figured out the reason for all of the rain. So, where would be a spot center to all of the WHW family to build an arc??

    1. I “think” I know what you mean, but I shall remain silent. 😀
      best build it on higher ground, so a couple of suggestions:

      1. A top Blue Hill, elevation 635 feet
      2. Holden, elevation about 900 feet.
      3. A top Mt. Wachusett, elevation 2004 feet.

      Best of luck with that endeavor.

  5. 6Z FV3-GFS has that system TK discussed around the 5th of Dec. As depicted rain
    for coast with back end snow.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018112706/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_33.png

    10:1 snow (for areas well N&W it also shows last night’s but for closer to the coast, mainly the above event)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018112706/fv3p_asnow_neus_36.png

    And for comparison, the regular GFS version:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

    So, the question is: Is the FV3-GFS version fixed enough yet? OR is it still out to lunch?

  6. Wonder what the snow totals look like up North?

    Western Maine and the Whites of NH look like they were hammered and continue
    to be hammered.

  7. Thanks TK. An inch or two of slushy snow here in Albany on the wrap-around last night and this morning. As expected, much more in the higher elevations, and it’s not done yet. Very elevation-dependent storm. I have a little news to share today… another big change on the way for me. I posted this on my FB page a couple days ago and want to pass it on to you guys:

    A number of you know this has been in the works for awhile, but I can finally make it official now! I have accepted a job offer as a meteorologist at the National Weather Service forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ. I’ll be starting there on December 10. Getting into the NWS has been a career goal of mine for a very long time. Basically my entire life’s work so far in terms of education and early career job/internship experience has been to make this a possibility, and now it’s a reality. This does mean I’ve had to make the difficult decision to put grad school on hold for the time being. I’ve enjoyed my short time here in Albany and am glad to have met so many great people, but I cannot resist the opportunity to go and do something I’ve been looking forward to for so long. A huge thank you- especially on this Thanksgiving weekend- to everyone who’s helped me out with advice and support on this decision and this process; this could not have happened on my own! I can’t wait to get started on this new journey, and I’m thrilled to be joining the NWS family!

    Good day all 🙂

    1. WOW!! That is Awesome news! I am so happy for you as you get to do what
      I had always wanted to do, but circumstances just didn’t line up to allow for it.
      I am absolutely thrilled for you! You WILL make them proud!! and then some.

      We have all watched you grow here and it became increasingly more and more
      evident that you had what it takes to become a really fine meteorologist.

      I surely hope that you will at least occasionally stop by here. We would miss you tremendously if you could not drop in.

      And for those that wish to follow WxWatcher on his fantastic journey, here
      are some links to the Mt. Holly NWS office.

      https://www.weather.gov/phi/

      https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=nws&issuedby=phi&product=afd&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    5. WxWatcher….your news literally made my day and undoubtedly many days to come. I cannot think of anyone more deserving. Congratulations to you, but also, congratuations to the NWS for recognizing your gift!!

  8. That is terrific news . Nice job! I don’t comment much here but when I see news like that from a very humble person as you seem to be , that is terrific !! Best of luck to you!

  9. A very big congratulations to WxWatcher. This is so well deserved and I wish you nothing but the best in your new position. They are lucky to have you.

  10. Is Boston #1 in all rain categories by now? If not, I bet they will be by the end of the month. It will also not surprise me if 2018 is the wettest year on record overall.

  12. Barlett,NH in particular my neighborhood was hit pretty hard from this last storm. All roads in my neighborhood are closed due to down tree’s and power lines have been ripped to the ground. Power went out this morning just before 1 am. The plows won’t be able to get in there until its safe. Anyone have a guess on how long until I have to worry about frozen pipes? The temp was 60 when power went off. The water pipes are full with water but the main shut off (after the pump) is off. I have no idea how long I will have.

    1. What is the outside temp? We went for three or four days in Framingham a few times without power. Is your building fairly new?

      1. I txt’d my SIL – the one who has a plumbing business – but not sure if he will see it if he’s working on a job.

    2. Coastal – if it is a newer condo and temps outside stay around freezing (which according to Wunder they are now), he thought pipes would be on interior walls which would give you a couple of days.

      My memory tells me when we had lost power for the longer events in Framingham, it warmed up outside somewhat. But it was something that always worried me.

      1. Thanks Vicki,
        It is a stand alone home,was built in 1985 and had some renovations within the past 5 years. Its fairly well insulated. The power went out 12 hours ago and it was 60 degrees at that time. The forecast is for lows around 30 so I am guessing it might be ok until the power is restored. Though there is no time table yet.

        1. Good luck. I’m assuming 60 inside and not out?? As I said, as much as I enjoy power outages, I worried about pipes.

        2. Coastal, what about the old tried-and-true faucet drip method? We have been through this so many times with power outages and leaving the faucets on a trickle seems to prevent those pipe leaks.

          Posting this late, so not sure if you’ll see it, but here’s hoping your pipes will do ok.

          1. Great suggestions Oceanair, I have read that but the problem is I am 170 miles away at the moment and have no way to open a faucet. I am still trying to find a company for these issues but it’s very hard to find reliable people up north.

            In a any case thank you both!

            Power was restored a hour ago and heat is back on!

    1. FWIW, this looks very much like a repeat of last night. It would HAMMER up
      North yet again.

      The snow banks must be looking mighty impressive, most especially for this
      early in the season.

  15. As for Mt. Holly NJ, I do not know their average snowfall but precipitation overall is 46.21 inches. I believe Boston is around 42 inches.

  16. Congrats WxW! I’ve known for a while that you have what it takes to go anywhere you want in the weather world. Much easier for me to figure that out than forecasting tomorrow’s weather. You are meant to do this. Use your gift wisely, although I know you don’t need that advice. 🙂

    Please stay in touch with us!

    1. Will WxW be able to still post here once he becomes an official employee of the NWS? I believe the local tv mets (including Barry) are not allowed by their employers.

        1. Thanks TK. I hope NWS will allow him to continue posting here. Frankly I don’t understand why some employers have a problem with that.

    1. I was in my mom’s kitchen and she had the radio on and they were talking about music history and someone was talking about the band that Hendrix was in when he called himself JimmyJames. I had to chuckle.

  18. Great news, WxW!
    You’re an extremely intelligent and articulate person! You have a great ability to explain the complicated in easy-to-understand ways (that even I get it!) 🙂

    Best of luck in your new endeavors!

    1. to be honest I know how people been saying its some what better, but in my opinion at least here in New England It has gotten more things wrong that the operational. The Operational is more in line with everything else.

      1. Well, that is clearly what worries me.

        Right now, the GFS_FV3 appears to be a FANTASY model.

        And perhaps the main reason I am DYING to see the EURO!

      1. the weather models are having a hard time pin-pointing the several puzzle pieces. EURO has something around the 2 and around the 2 well to the west and 2 parts that do not meet. One around the great lakes the other goes off the mid-atlantic.

        1. wow terrible, euro has something around dec 2 going to the west. The system that the new gfs shows is in two pieces on the EURO one over the great lakes one slides off the mid-atlantic.

  25. Thank you ALL for the well wishes! I’m very excited to get started in Mt. Holly. It’s a very good office to work at and relative to most of the 120+ NWS offices around the country it’s pretty close to home, and it’s hard to get something like that just because of the way the openings are. I will certainly be keeping in touch with this great community here! Just now instead of being your eyes to the west in Albany I’ll be your eyes to the south in Jersey 😉

      2. I don’t think it’ll be any problem. Obviously I can’t give any “inside” info, but that goes the same as for when I was interning in Taunton. Only limiting factor will be my work schedule!

        1. Makes me smile. Even if you just drop in to say hi as your schedule permits. Does NWS know you already have a huge fan club?

  26. The big thing I take out of the 12z Euro run is that cold, some serious cold, will be returning to this side of the hemisphere in the long term.

    1. To me it looks destined to run up the Hudson as a classic INSIDE RUNNER,
      but this is 10 days out and anything can happen. For now, just something
      to watch.

    2. That model has not been consistent with details the last several runs. I wouldn’t even try to detail a rain/snow scenario that far out. It’s likely to change multiple times again. It’s trying to forecast a transitional pattern, hence the trouble and inconsistency.

    2. That was my proposal. Everybody guesses Logan’s total and JPD’s total, but JPD has to be able to provide us with a seasonal total for that to work. 😉

      1. JPD will do his best. But that doesn’t mean I’ll stay up all night
        in the event of a wee hours changeover. 😀 😀 😀

          1. It was just an idea. We can come up with something else or just use the old way. I was just looking to simplify in terms of the amount of locations, but since the data is easily enough available for the ones we’ve done, we can just stick with them.
            🙂

              1. I will have mine by the 30th, although it may be while I’m recovering from a sedative after a medical procedure. OH boy!

  30. Congratulations Weather Watcher! As some here know I worked for the NWS from 1996-2008 mostly at NCEP MDL in Maryland in between stints at the now absorbed Weather Central. NWS is filled with dedicated, smart and mostly intuitive people who work under evolving pressures that are rarely seen by the public. I had many reasons for leaving, but the broad exposure to forecasting tools and applying them to numerous micro-climates that exist in your forecast area will be experience that will serve you for the enterity of your professional life. And the government pay and benfots are pretty far good in this day and age!

  31. That is awesome news WxWatcher and well deserved. Congratulations! You picked a good time to go as you may very well have a busy winter down there this year!

  32. The ski areas have been absolutely POUNDED. Incredible. It has been a “Snowvember” to remember this year in NNE.

    Sunday River….18″ new and still snowing; 5 FEET so far on the month
    Killington….20″ new with an additional 4-8″ of upslope snow expected tomorrow
    Mount Snow…20″ new
    Stratton….21″ new

    Here’s a shot from Sunday River this PM:
    https://twitter.com/sundayriver/status/1067564877944897538

    And another from Jay Peak, also taken this PM:
    https://jaypeakresort.com/november-never-looked-so-good

  33. 18z GFS and FV-3 drop another 1-2 FEET of snow on the mountains next week. Both models have also trended colder and further southeast with the track for the storm next Tuesday and deliver accumulating snow in SNE.

    Snow through 240 hours (regular GFS):

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018112718&fh=240

    FV-3 as usual is more inflated:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018112718&fh=240

    1. And that is only through 6AM this morning. Many of the higher elevations have added another foot since then, and the upslope snows continue overnight and tomorrow!

    2. This just makes my heart smile. It’s about time the ski areas got walloped. I sure hope it bodes well for a more than successful winter season for them.

  36. Thank you, TK.

    Congratulations, WxWatcher!

    Mark, as I recall you did some spring skiing in April at Killington. I believe they had one of their best spring snow hauls in many years. And 6-7 months later they’re getting pounded with snow again. Hopefully the black bears who live up there fattened up over the summer, because that’s a long period of hibernation.

    I’m off to a more tropical clime early tomorrow morning. Only for a day. And it’s business, not leisure. But, it’ll sure feel different in Miami than it does in Boston. I’m a bit terrified of the presentations I’m doing tomorrow afternoon and evening as they’re on epidemiology, which is NOT my field of expertise. Still, it’ll be a learning experience. And, as Woody Allen once said, 80% of success is showing up.

  37. Yes, it is crazy to think that the New England ski resorts were open 8 out of the 12 months this year. Only in June, July, August, and September were there no mountains open and available for skiing.

    You have a good memory Joshua – I personally skied on my birthday this year – April 19 – at Mount Snow in mid winter conditions and it snowed half the day. First time I have ever skied on my birthday. Also just went skiing at Sunday River on November 10 (again in mid winter conditions) and the earliest I have ever gone skiing. So it will be 6 out of the 12 months this year where I have been fortunate enough to be able to go skiing!

    Have a nice trip to Miami tomorrow and good luck with the presentation. Always more difficult when you don’t the material inside and out, and aren’t as confident but I’m sure you’ll do fine!

  38. 0z GFS advertising two snowstorms in SNE on 12/5 an 12/9.

    The 12/5 storm is now an offshore track and all snow event. Any further out to sea and it would be a miss. FV3 still tracks the storm over us with a change to rain.

    The 12/9 system looks like a full fledged nor’easter as depicted.

    Potentially an interesting start to December….

  40. Good morning,

    re: Possible snow storms

    At least for now, the EURO has the 12/5 event suppressed and OTS, but at least
    it now has it. We’ll wait and see. I will not be on board until the Euro is.
    FWIW, the CMC is not on board either. So far this is a GFS special. 😀

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