Wednesday Forecast

45 Comments

8:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Upper level low pressure crosses the region today, and while not a stormy day, it will be slightly unsettled with a lot of cloudiness and a few rain/snow showers possible. This low departs and a broad northwesterly flow between it and approaching high pressure will bring blustery and chilly weather to the region Thursday, but it will be a dry day, as Friday will be, but more tranquil as high pressure moves over the region. A weakening disturbance may bring brief light rain/snow Saturday, a cloud-dominated day as there will be little break between that system and an approaching larger one from the southwest that will combine with milder air to bring yet another round of rain to the region Saturday night into Sunday. However this system carries much less potential for heavy rainfall as it will be weakening and losing support during its transit across the Northeast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain and snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain/mix/snow possible early. Dry most of daylight and early evening. Rain arriving by late night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely morning. Slight chance of a rain shower afternoon. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Fair, breezy, slightly colder December 3. Next precipitation threat is from a system passing near or south of the region later December 4 through December 5 and this system has a better chance of having snow involved with it should it be far enough north for impact. Fair, colder weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
There is uncertainty in timing of systems, but the overall pattern is transitional between the active southern jet stream dominated pattern we’ve been in to one with less southern jet stream involvement and more polar jet stream domination. These transitions can still be rather unsettled and there will be threats to monitor about every other day.

45 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  6. Thanks TK
    I am looking at some snow flurries right now.
    Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk about potential wintry threats upcoming.
    Vicki your December 9th date is mentioned here
    As blocking builds into the Pacific domain, with ridging from British Columbia into the Arctic, multiple threats for winter weather will emerge in the Great Lakes/Northeast. The first comes next week, with uncertainty as to how this disturbance will evolve across the country.

    To me, the more significant threat within the overall waveguide exists closer to the 12/9 time frame. This is when the potential appears highest for a notable winter weather event in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Analogs have hinted at this time frame for almost two weeks now.

  7. My son and I could only use 2 full days to do outside decorating this season (Sunday of this past weekend and yesterday). Both were fairly damp, drizzle at times, but yesterday dried out nicely though got rather chilly feeling and a little more windy. We made the most of it and completed the task! Inside decorating takes place in stages over the course of about a week and will be completed by Friday evening. This is all ongoing while helping a friend after a hospital visit and also having my own medical test coming up Friday that will take me out of commission for several hours (routine test, nothing serious). 🙂 Not that this is a busy week or anything. 😛

    1. Great progress. Outside has surely been a challenge this year. I am close on inside but started three weeks ago. We had drizzle most of yesterday. Both daughters and one grand started outside today. I hope to do my part tomorrow. Dana meeting tonight and Sutton parade committee tomorrow night. I need to retire from my day job 🙂

      Anyone know of a marching band. We are in search of one for July 4 parade….not on the 4th.

  10. Some accumulating snow for the interior being showing on 12z GFS for middle of next week. The other storm threat around the 10th is a miss but far from the final outcome with both these systems. CMC has the low farther offshore for the middle of next week and a more widespread accumulating snowfall for SNE. In either case not a big storm middle of next week.

  11. It’s funny that the Global models, GFS,CMC, ICON and even the Euro to a lesser extent all show the disturbance for Late Friday into Saturday AM, while the short range NAMS don’t see that at all. Very interesting indeed.

    I wonder if this becomes a real sneaky event that “could” end up more moderate
    than light?????????????????????????

    1. The Global models probably have that system over-forecast. Though a different type of system than today’s, that one should have about the same overall impact, precipitation-wise, as today’s upper low.

  13. the euro has two pieces of energy that never gets together with the southern piece well to the south and the northern piece dying out as it moves SE.

  15. The 12Z EURO has that potential storm for 12/9. At hour 240, it depicts it
    moving NE as mentioned by Matt above. Here are 3 charts from the Euro, surface. 500mb and 300mb.

    https://imgur.com/a/qt0s7Jq

    This is clearly still a split jet situation and this would be a Southern Stream system
    with no phasing. However, it is pretty loaded and would make for a significant storm.
    The question is: what will be the exact path?

    In my mind, it could still hug the coast causing snow to rain, or Move just off the coast
    causing mostly snow but still a possible changeover in the coastal plain or move too
    far off resulting in a miss or a graze. The jury is out on this baby, but exciting to watch just the same.

  16. From Eric Fisher
    The beat goes on. Plenty of clouds and precipitation ahead. Rain Sunday (starts as mix NW Saturday night). Winter storm potential Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another later in the week.

  17. When looking at two wintry threats in less than a week if I get snow out of one of them I will be happy. To get both icing on the cake.

  19. Back in November 2016 Northwest Hills of CT got quite a bit of snow with a storm system that tracked pretty close to this one.

    1. Power was out for 18 hours. Inside temp dropped from 60 to 48 with a outdoor temps around 30-32.

      I am heading up on Friday for final preparations. Our winter rentals start next weekend and are booked every weekend until mid March. We have set aside 4 weekends for ourselves so we will have plenty of time to ski. The conditions last Fri/Sat were amazing at Wildcat.

      1. That’s great!

        Dying to get up north and go skiing. Unfortunately my only day available to potentially go is Sunday. Figures…

          1. Wow, beautiful house and excellent reviews. I can see why you are already booked weekends through the winter. For an old house, sure looks nice and modern inside with all the upgrades you have done. I will definitely keep that in mind for the future!

  23. Not entirely sure what to make of the euro weather map. surface does not match some of the other maps such as the 500 vorticity map that has the energy a bit further north.

  24. 18Z GFS is not quite out far enough, but shows split jet and does NOT look like
    the system for 12/5 can get up here.

  25. Thank you, TK.

    Thankfully, Miami isn’t as warm as it can be. I’d say it barely got to 70F today. I’m not sure, though, as I was inside the conference venue (hotel) most of the time. But, this morning I had to go outside at the airport to get a cab and I was wearing `Boston’ late November clothing. Because it was 58F at 10am in Miami it didn’t feel particularly warm. Even now the temp is around 59F. The hotel room is freezing. I turned the AC and fan off an hour ago and it’s still cold. Imagine that, you to to Miami and you feel cold.

  26. That storm, sitting to our northeast for the past few days, certainly has restrengthened again. Breezy day on tap for us, as a result.

    Nice sunny morning to start.

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