Sunday Forecast

51 Comments

8:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Elongated low pressure from the Great Lakes across New England and beyond into the Canadian Maritimes will send a warm front northward through the region today. A large area of rain will cross the region this morning, moving out at midday, leaving a few rain showers behind, but perhaps some lingering drizzle and fog north of the frontal boundary, which will lift northward allowing the mild air into all areas this evening into Monday before a cold front brings a new chilly air mass into the region Tuesday through midweek. During this time, energy will pass south of the region, not allowing what looked like a possible snow threat to materialize. Some upper level energy may cause a few snow showers to develop Wednesday in a slightly unstable atmosphere.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with rain and areas of fog, but rain tapering off early afternoon rapidly from west to east. Cloudy southern NH and northern MA with patchy drizzle and a chance of rain showers remainder of day while southern MA, eastern CT, and RI are mostly cloudy with a slight risk of rain showers. Highs 42-48 north, 48-55 south. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH in northern areas, SE shifting to SW 10-20 MPH in southern areas.
TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 40-46. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a passing rain shower. Temperatures fall to the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to NW late.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures fall from the 40s to the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)
A disturbance brings a risk of snow showers December 7. Timing of next threat looks a little later so fair weather expected December 8-9 with snow/mix threat later December 10 to early December 11 as a system passes near or south of the region. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Mid month moderation in temperature may come with initial unsettled weather then fair weather to follow.

51 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK

    Yesterday was an absolutely glorious day. I think I spent the lions share of the day and well into the night outdoors.

    Today…well, we are closing in on 0.75 but can’t all be sunny days.

    2. I wasn’t about to be outside as much as I’d have liked but I did take a very nice walk through the woods (short version) in Lexington. You may have seen a few of my photos on FB.

      1. I did indeed. Very nice.

        Sutton had its annual chain of lights event ending with the high school band playing carols, the arrival of Santa and Mrs Santa and then the lighting of the Christmas trees on the common. There is one in Mac’s memory 🙂

  2. Thanks TK !

    Perhaps today’s rain can help the Pats out a bit with the conditions of the field.

    Among the Vikings many strengths, is their excellent 4 man pass rush. Hopefully, a wet field can slow that down by a half second or so, which can make all the difference in the world.

    1. Hopefully no fumbles or dropped passes for the Pats. Those calamities can work both ways. Not to mention just the snap from center.

  3. As mentioned by TK, WxWatcher and others recently, the idea of moderation in the long term.

    It shows up nicely on the 500 mb charts on the 00z Euro.

    Significant arctic cold relocates back to Siberia and Eastern Asia. The jet stream, in turn, increases significantly over the Pacific all the way to the British Columbia coastline.

    It’s a zonal flow, flooding Canada with an above average Pacific Airmass that overtakes a good part of Canada and the US.

    2. I’ll take it. Just drier too please.

      If “winter” with lots of snow and cold doesn’t start until mid-February, I’m good.

  4. Barry mentioned next Sunday (12/9) as well. He had 30 for a high for Saturday so the stage should be set as far as temps go.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Jury is still out for 12/9. Both 6Z GFS models have a complete miss.
    CMC has a system travel right over us with snow to rain.
    Euro has a pretty good glancing blow up to about Boston.

    https://imgur.com/a/OKaWZUH

  6. Wife and I saw Bohemian Rhapsody last evening. WOW! A must see movie.
    The acting and the music was stellar. We loved it.

    Trailer

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP0VHJYFOAU

    Brief online description of the movie:

    Bohemian Rhapsody is a foot-stomping celebration of Queen, their music and their extraordinary lead singer Freddie Mercury. Freddie defied stereotypes and shattered convention to become one of the most beloved entertainers on the planet. The film traces the meteoric rise of the band through their iconic songs and revolutionary sound. They reach unparalleled success, but in an unexpected turn Freddie, surrounded by darker influences, shuns Queen in pursuit of his solo career. Having suffered greatly without the collaboration of Queen, Freddie manages to reunite with his band mates just in time for Live Aid. While bravely facing a recent AIDS diagnosis, Freddie leads the band in one of the greatest performances in the history of rock music. Queen cements a legacy that continues to inspire outsiders, dreamers and music lovers to this day.

  7. With this trend of rain every Sunday, with cold air in place we “should” be all set for the 12/9 (snow) event, correct? 😉

    2. I’m of the school that at the current rate, we’d get 80-100″ of rain in the next 12 months. Since I don’t believe that will happen, I have to believe it’ll have to be “dry” at some point soon to get us back to the mean.

      My over-simplified rationale for a dry winter upcoming.

  9. High confidence: The run of unsettled Tuesdays ends December 4.

    Increasing confidence: The run of unsettled weekends (at least one of 2 days) ends December 8-9. More and more it looks to me like that energy is going to hang back and arrive after next weekend. We’re in for a long dry stretch in comparison to what we’ve seen. In fact, the longest dry stretch since August begins tomorrow. This doesn’t include the risk of a brief passing shower Monday evening and snow flurry pre-dawn Tuesday, as well as a risk of passing snow showers Friday. All 3 of those days will be 99.9% fair weather days.

  10. This is what remains of the snow piles in the Roch Brothers W. Roxbury parking lot
    from the 0.1 inch of snow the city of Boston officially received. HA HA HA HA HA

    https://imgur.com/a/KNXI2E7

    Actually, West Roxbury received a good 5 inches, if not a bit more 😀

    The records being kept at that airport just make no sense whatsoever!

    2. FWIW Worcester’s official records come from a place considerably higher in elevation from the actual city and immediate suburbs. 🙂

      There are many, many official locations that are not representative. Logan is probably not even the biggest offender.

      1. Hard to top 0.1 inch to almost 6 inches just a few miles. I’m guessing 4-5 miles at most between JP and Logan.

      2. Agree that Worcester’s are not representative either. IT is WRONG! no 2 ways about it.

        Just not right.

  11. Still mixed signals with the 12Z runs so far. Waiting on the 12Z Euro run.
    That “should” be interesting,

    1. 51 euro ensembles are still all over the place I broke them in two ways The vast amount is outside the bench mark
      Outside of Bench mark 38
      Bench Mark 6
      Within Bench Mark 6
      Notes on this. About half of the ones outside of the bench mark are close to the benchmark and send precip some where into SNE.
      the other way I split it up
      Out to sea no precip in the region 20
      Fringe for the cape 11
      SE special (areas east of I95 and south of the pike) 9
      regional event ( all snow) besides maybe cape 6
      snow/rain 5

      As you can see such a wide spread.

  17. Thank you, TK.

    As was said by others yesterday was a glorious early winter day. I liked friday, too. Today, not so much. And I will not be thrilled if we get a zonal flow in 10 days time, which often translates into rain showers. 40s and rain or gray is just not fun. I think most can agree with that. We need more days like yesterday, as bright sunshine really does give us all a boost during the darkest days of the year.

  20. I am having issues send you this message, so, if has been posted before, I am sorry!

    Thank you so much, TK!

    Happy Hanukkah to everyone celebrating the holiday that starts in a matter of minutes!!! May the next eight days and nights bring joy to you, your family and friends!!! 🙂

    Today’s rain has broken the all-time, yearly Taunton rainfall record. It also cancelled the annual Taunton Christmas parade, not to be rescheduled. Last night’s 105th annual Taunton Green Lights On party was awesome and crowded.

    I will be posting new rainfall numbers when I get a chance.

    Go Pats!

    2. I’d like to join Captain with his wish of hope, health, happiness, love and light in your celebration of Hanukkah.

  21. Despite the euro showing that suppressed storm to the south only about 4 ensemble members show that, I’ll java break down of the ensembles after the game

  22. 51 euro ensembles are still all over the place I broke them in two ways The vast amount is outside the bench mark
    Outside of Bench mark 41
    Bench Mark 5
    Within Bench Mark 5
    Notes on this. 26 of the outside bench mark members had no precipitation in the region the others showed at least some precipitation making it. Most of the outside bench mark travel off the mid-atlantic coast not off the SE coast like the euro is depicting.
    the other way I split it up
    Out to sea no precip in the region 26
    Fringe for the cape 7
    SE special (areas east of I95 and south of the pike) 5
    regional event ( all snow) besides maybe cape 10
    snow/rain 3
    Unlike the last set though this round of ensembles showed 6 lows that were around or below 980 mb.

    GFS off the SE coast
    GFS ensembles all over the place, has no clue.
    Fv3 gfs off the mid-atlantic precip just misses to the south
    Canadian travels has main low split into two with a major part going out to sea but a secondary low traveling up the coast and giving eastern areas some snow.

    Bunch of possibilities are on the table and I won’t trust anything until at least Thursday. Lets see how the ensembles go. At the moment if I had to make a guess. I would say the main storm will travel out of the mid-atlantic and it could give some fringe impacts to the cape and islands. Ya just need this sucker to go a bit further north than the vast majority of ensembles are showing.

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