Monday Forecast

74 Comments

6:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)
The transitional pattern is ahead of schedule and nearly complete and the expected turn to a predominately colder/drier pattern arrives this week, but not before a start to the week that will hold both a reminder of recent weather, as the early hours of Monday are damp and grey, and a brief treat as the day turns out quite nice before the cold front arrives that introduces the feel of the upcoming pattern. After this, the polar jet stream becomes the dominant steering influence for systems impacting southeastern New England weather this week, keeping a southern jet stream system well to the south at midweek. Our precipitation threats will be minimal this week, being in the form of patchy drizzle to start today, a possible rain shower a couple times during today, and possible snow showers with a late-week trough. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle as well as isolated rain showers into mid morning then a sun/cloud mix with a passing rain shower possible late morning on. Highs 49-56. Wind light variable early, then SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower coastal areas and rain or snow shower interior, then clearing before dawn. Temperatures fall to the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening, high clouds arrive overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun filtered through high cloudiness. Highs 34-41. Wind light N becoming light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)
Fair/cold weekend of December 8-9. Will watch a storm passing south of the region December 10 in case it ends up far enough north to bring snow/mix to the region. Fair, chilly December 11-12 though clouds may return to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)
A milder trend expected for much of this period with dry weather for a lot of it, then some wet weather may occur just before a flip back to colder weather at the end of the period.

74 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK and SAK !

    Looking forward to a largely precip free stretch !

    I saw a tweet over the weekend (can’t verify its accuracy) about a stratopheric warming event about to take place over the arctic the next 7 to 10 days.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Not excited about anything weatherwise. BORING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Last night’s Euro brought the 12/9-10 much closer then did the 12Z run, but still
    a miss. CMC has a hit and the 2 GFS models show a big miss well suppressed.

    I don’t think we can write it off just yet.

    I remember a several years back there was a similar situation (I can’t remember how close to the same set up except to say up to the day before, models were calling for
    a suppressed system). Retrac and I were the only ones on the blog at the time when
    the 12Z GFS came in showing a big hit like the models turned on a dime and changed.
    We got clobbered. That was fun!!

    Deja Vu all over again????

    Who knows, but good enough reason to watch this closely.

    Let’s see if the Euro does the windshield routine? If so, it should show it completely suppressed again. IF not, then it should show it a tad closer. We shall see.

    Best I can tell, the energy is still in the Eastern Pacific, about where I have circled:

    https://imgur.com/a/vK0Ef5R

    Not very well sampled out there. Along about Thursday, it should be on shore
    somewhere in California. I am “presuming” models will have a better handle come
    then.

  5. TK has said I could post a few seasonal quizzes. I thought I’d start with Hanukkah.

    Hanukkah lasts for:

    a: 8 days and 8 nights
    b: 7 days and 8 nights
    c: 8 nights and 7 days
    d: 8 nights and 9 days

    Answer later

    1. And right off the bat, I made an error. Sorry about that.

      These are the choices:

      a: 8 nights and 8 days
      b: 7 night and 8 days
      c: 8 nights and 7 days
      d: 8 nights and 9 days

  7. Not for nothing, but the 0Z Euro ensemble mean, takes the system even closer
    than the operational run for the 12/9 system. It’s not over yet. I mean it could be, but
    we can’t declare it dead just yet. It could just as easily be a big hit.

  9. Thanks TK
    Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    We continue to monitor a winter storm threat next Sunday-Monday. Currently, data favors a more southern solution, bringing snow and ice to the Carolinas and Virginia. Some data suggest areas in the Mid-Atlantic and New England should monitor this system!

  11. Thanks TK. Today is definitely a transition day. 50F and bright sunshine right now in Albany making it feel downright balmy. Into a much drier pattern we go for the first time in a long time. Likely a two-phase dry pattern, with a cool and dry stretch for the next 7-10 days then a warmer and likely mainly dry stretch for a similar length after that. Only wildcard in the 12/9-12/11 storm threat, which is certainly still on the table. I think we see the battle SNE will be fighting to get snow much of this winter though. These systems are going to want to be suppressed south. That’s largely El Nino at work. To have a shot at near normal snowfall, one or two of these will have to find a way to phase and move up the coast.

  14. euro ensembles
    outside the bench mark 35
    Bench Mark 7
    inside 3
    many of the ones outside the bench mark do give precip to some portion of the region. Only about 7 of the ensembles still have the system off the southeast US coast. Most have the system going off the Mid-atlantic area.

    Out to sea no precipitation 24
    Fringe impacts for south shore/cape and islands 8
    Southeast new england( IE areas east of I95 and south of pike) 7
    regional event 10
    rain/snow hit 2
    out of all of these 8 of them are decent hits. With a low pressure of around 980 or lower. Within or near the bench mark.
    some of the ensembles have the main storm well out ot sea and a secondary low forming along the coast. Some of these in the process of developing as they pass the region.
    The ensemble mean for the euro sends it off the mid-atlantic
    EPS has a 30ish percent chance of at least an inch which is better than the 5% from yesterday.
    On the city charts that I have, the eps shows any where from 2 to 14 inches. so wide spread.
    The 12z gfs shows what some of the euro ensembles are showing, the main low going out to sea with a secondary low forming off the coast some of them moving up the east coast and impacting us while others have it go out to sea.
    Lots of different possibilities.

    1. Thanks Dr. S! I notice that Ch. 7 is the only one not totally writing off the storm just yet. Accuweather on WBZ radio this morning mentioned the possibility as well.

  17. Sure hoping those two dry days for the weekend will hold . These one day work weekends have been tough especially when the phone is ringing non stop with potential work .

    1. Tom – sorry – I do have yours. I’d jotted them on a piece of paper and they are now added to the spreadsheet

      Logan : 64.7 inches
      JpDave : 65.9 inches

  19. re: 12Z Euro

    !@+()#&**(!&@*(#&!*()@#&*(!@#*()!&@*(#&!*(@^#)&*!^@*()#^!*(@#&*(!&@#*(&!(@*#*(@#&*(!@&#*(!&@*(#&!(*@&#*(!&@#*(&!@*(#&!*(@&#*(!&@#*(&!@#*()&!_@)#*()!&@#*(&!*()@#&*(!&@#*(&!@*(#!*(@&#*(!&@#*(!&@*(#&!*(@&#*(!

    Need I say more?????

  20. Check out those 850mb temps at day 10 on the Euro. Could see a round of near record warmth in the mid-month period. It’s certainly moving the energy markets today.

      1. I don’t think so. I think we’re going to go from cool and dry to warm and dry, with that 12/9/12/11 threat being the divider, whether it actually hits us or not. What’s remarkable about the long range warmth on the Euro is that it’s not really being driven by a storm cutting to our west like it often is in winter, at least not initially.

        1. Even with the 12/9-12/11 threat, should it actually materialize, it may be too warm for snow anyway as
          the cold high is retreating to the East.

        1. SM

          Hmm, don’t think I recognize that handle.
          Are you new? Changed your handle? I’m out to lunch?

          Thanks

          1. New – daily reader of the blog and comments, but only 2nd time commenting. I generally keep quiet because I have no scientific training, and my tendency to complain about warm weather would probably bother most people if I indulged it regularly.

            1. Plenty of people post here that have zero scientific training (myself included.) and I complain about cold weather. lol

            2. If I never welcomed you, I am so sorry.

              Please accept a hardy welcome…

              And not to worry. We all complain all of the time. Some complain about cold, some about snow others about rain and still others about HHH weather.

  21. Hi folks….Weatherbee2, the professional lurker here.
    I am trying to find the link to the contest page, but no luck.
    HELP!

      1. Hi TK. Last entry on that contest page was in 2014.
        So, if Vicki picks this up, I am guessing 74.5 at JPDave’s and 63 at logan

        1. I have it

          If you look at the top of this page, you’ll see a tab for contests. But I just made a note to myself to record yours in the morning. No worries.

  25. I still won’t trust any of the models past Thursday…… Ensembles are still all over the place, I will do what I did with this mornings runs with tomorrow morning runs as well. 12z had more ensemble runs that gave 6+ inches for the area. As well as more that were fringe inmpacts and more north.

  26. JPD…If that 27F from Fairbanks Alaska is considered “above” normal, then I don’t want to know what the “normal” is. 😉

    YIKES!!!! The polar bears must be in seventh heaven up there. 🙂

    1. Philip,

      Funny you should mention…

      The average High for 12/3 is 7 and average low is -8

      Have a look

      https://imgur.com/a/g3Wa28T

      So, as you can see a high today of 27 or 28 is like 20 degrees F above
      average. I would say that qualifies and anomalously warm, no? 😀

      1. The way the atmosphere and earth are built, anomalies are much larger close to the poles than they are the equator.

        How often do you see a +20 or -20 anomaly at the Equator?

        1. Um, probably never or practically so.

          I understand that, but the point was our warm up
          will have its origin in Alaska.

          I just wanted to show Philip how cold it is on average up
          that way. 😀

          1. Oh absolutely. I was just adding a bit of education.

            Another one that I will bring up again, in Mid Latitudes, we normally have more days of above average temperature than below normal (over the long term). The positive anomalies are longer-lived but close to normal, while the negative anomalies tend to be shorter-lived by further from normal. Warmer: Lengthy, duller. Colder: Shorter, sharper.

      2. Absolutely never ever. I wouldn’t even want to visit there. I don’t even want to see it in a picture.

  29. Accuweather forecast for North Conway does not have any precip falling until new years eve with seasonal to below seasonal temperatures.

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