Tuesday Forecast

79 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)
High pressure will bring chilly and dry weather to the region for the next few days. A fast-moving cold front will cross the region between late Thursday and early Friday, reinforcing the cold air for the end of the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Clear evening, high clouds arrive overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun filtered through high cloudiness. Highs 32-38. Wind light N becoming light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds and scattered snow showers arrive evening. Highs 34-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)
Dry, cold December 9. Will watch a storm passing south of the region December 10-11 in case it ends up far enough north to bring snow/mix to the region. Fair, moderating temperatures later in the period but some cloudiness may arrive with the moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)
Mild temperatures for the first couple days with some wet weather possible prior to the return of a more seasonable December chill.

79 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. I have a funny meteorological feeling that the temporary flip to ridging further east in North America toward mid month may end up evolving temporarily into a block which may give 1 or 2 shots at pre-Christmas snowfall.

    Don’t take that as “TK said white Christmas” .. just theorizing in typing. 😉

  6. Let’s try the holiday quiz again.

    What chilly song was recorded by Gene Autry in 1951?

    a. Winter wonderland
    b. Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer
    c. Frosty the Snowman
    d. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow

    3. I remember watching Gene Autry on TV all of the time.

      I think TK got the correct answer. We were listening to Christmas music while driving to shopping and His song came on.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    CMC is the outlier in the model mayhem race. Inferior physics?? Inferior logic??
    Just plain ole Inferior??

    Euro – Miss
    GFSs – Miss
    Icon – Miss
    JMA – Miss
    UKMET – Miss
    CMC – HIT

    HA HA HA HA HA

    Wouldn’t it be absolutely hilarious IF the CMC verified.

    1. Well now – that is an interesting thought. Mac’s real name was Charles Malcolm So we have the CM covered 🙂

    1. perhaps it was because I have to prepare for a meeting at 10 and couldn’t
      really dig into it. ??? 😀 😀 😀 Highly likely.

        1. Thank you. That does make me feel a little bit better.

          It kind of, sort of tied into what you were hinting at
          above. Perhaps timing differences?

  11. the euro operational is further north but ensembles have gotten in better agreement that the system will go to our south, Mainly off the mid-atlantic but some off the SE coast with only a few giving someone in Southern new england some precip. No big hits anymore on any of the ensembles. The FV3 gives the south shore/cape some snow showers on the outer fringe of the precip field but the way its depicted will not happen as any precip will be pushed south do to the high pressure.

  12. Although the end result may very well be a miss, until that energy comes ashore,
    we cannot write it off just yet. For sure, it doesn’t look like it at the moment.

    As Eric said last night, “the atmospheric players keep changing”. or something
    like that.

    1. Northern stream is so strong, it actually causes the Southern stream to weaken and thus the system looses some support and becomes not as strong as it
      once was down along the Gulf coast earlier.

  15. TK–I have a professional question that I’d prefer to ask over e-mail–can you either e-mail me or post an e-mail address where I can reach you here?

  16. Meteorologist John Homeneuk agrees with this tweet from Ian Livingston for the system early next week
    Hefty difference on northern reaches of weekend sys between CIPS analog guidance and the op GFS last night. Often this is a signal. Still pretty early… doubt it has found its final outcome. North shift into close still seems kind of likely even if it backed off last night.

    John Homenuk response to the tweet
    Good work here from Ian – at the very least, analog data suggests we be wary of a northward trend in the systems overall impact.

    1. I have seen this many times. Just can’t write it off yet, even if it looks like a miss at the moment.

      A little relaxation in the Northern stream or a little but more Umph from
      the Southern stream or combination of the 2 would easily do the job.

      We shall see.

  17. Were 5 plus days away from this. I have seen so many times people right off a system only to have it trend north. Back in December 2009 I remember the 18z NAM was the first to pick up on the northern movement 48 priors to the storm. The 0z model runs that night started the northern movement and on that Saturday we had accumulating snow.

  20. So many possibilities. Could very well have the main low go out to sea while a secondary coastal low forms to the north of it. Who knows. Like many have said already not all the pieces are past the west coast yet.

  21. Dave I’ll check my email later today. I can’t get to email on my phone until I replace it (soon).

  22. Tweet from Meteorologist John Homenuk
    The latest FV-3 remains much further north than the soon to be retired GFS, with the major difference stemming from a polar disturbance that the GFS says will be suppressing the mid/upper level flow in Southeast Canada.

    1. It also looks to me like the 12Z Euro “may” be a tad more North as well.
      It is only out to 144 hours and is on the NC coast.

  26. Of course, not EVERY system is going to slide out to sea well south of us this year.

    However, I think that the concensus thought for this winter is that the majority will, as a result of a split, non-phasing flow.

    Within 48 hrs of the system, the system tomorrow is really shown to be well south of New England.

    This is the approach I am taking with the system 144 to 192 hrs out. It may have danced back a bit north on today’s projections, however, I am assuming it will trend south again once it enters the short and medium range, as a result of a split flow pattern which should be around for the next few weeks.

      1. and further north could well happen.

        guess I’m going with persistence and relying a bit on the projected winter pattern.

        1. Yup, understood.

          You know the old gambling adage: “Trend is your friend”.

          I just think it will come more Northward.

          Could go either way. We shall see.

  27. Based on the 500 vort I would not be surprised if its further north. I would also not be surprised that at some point later this week we see some snow showers.

  30. Here it is, 5PM and the FV3-GFS is still STUCK at hour 144.
    Sign of things to come with this model??????

    Did it blow up the computer?????????????

        1. who on twitter? Not seeing it, also wondering because my eps control is not showing any blizzard for our area.

  33. I’m still not seeing a whole ton of support for a long lasting warm-up. I do see Arctic air retreating after our Saturday shot, however, for a while. Jury’s out on storm threat next week. The longer that energy waits to get east of our longitude the higher the risk is that something comes further north (boundary of January 12).

  34. Break down of EURO ensembles
    outside bench mark 41
    bench mark 6
    inside bench mark 4
    out of 51
    Out to sea no precip 32
    frindge 7
    regional 7
    SE special 4
    rain/snow 2

    out of the ensembles 13 of them have the main storm and then a secondary low forming with a mix of out comes of where the secondary low goes.
    5 storms of around 980 or low MB around or inside the bench mark.
    9 of the ensembles show a regional 5+ snowfall
    2 shows all snow accumulation interior
    4 shows below pike winter weather

    the ensembles of the EURO have no real clue past Sunday and even then still not a great idea of where the heavy snow will happen in the mid-atlantic.
    Canadian is showing what some of the euro ensembles are seeing main low goes out to sea with secondary low development.
    GFS fv3, well I do not trust the last run since it did not complete
    gfs well is the gfs and I don’t trust it either.

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