Cool & Unsettled Through Midweek

57 Comments

4:06PM

We’ll be stuck in this pattern for a couple more days, through Thursday, as a frontal system oscillates back and forth in the region and areas of moisture move along it from the south. Much of the time the Boston area will be on the cooler side of the front with clouds, periods of rain and drizzle, and a wind off the ocean. For a time on Wednesday to early Thursday this front may push just far enough northwestward to get Metro Boston and at least southeastern MA into the warmer air on the other side. This would just increase the humidity and the chance of thunderstorms, however. Complete clearing is not expected until as last as Friday night, as some trapped low level moisture and instability may hold the clouds in during Friday.

Hurricane Katia will make its turn to the north and northeast during the next few days, passing between Bermuda and the US East Coast, generally a safe distance from both, but again, as mentioned before, close enough to cause rough surf along the coast later this week. This will result in some minor splashover flooding and dangerous rip currents.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: Generally cloudy. Some breaks may occur especially from Metro Boston southward on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Episodes of mostly light rain and drizzle. Pockets of heavier showers cannot be ruled out. Slight risk of thunderstorms especially Wednesday evening. Steadiest rain tonight, least chance of rain Thursday. Temperature generally in the 60s but may warm to the lower 70s for a time Wednesday especially Metro Boston southward. Wind mostly NE-E up to 10 MPH but shifting to SE for a while Metro Boston southward during Wednesday.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 72-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 78.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Low 62. High 86.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 62. High 79.

57 thoughts on “Cool & Unsettled Through Midweek”

  1. Thanks for the update TK !!

    Glad to see Vermont not getting much rain and hope that continues.

    Fairly steady rain going south of Boston. Will gladly trade upcoming weekend sunshine for a few cloudy, damp days.

  2. We now have a T.D. 14, soon to become a tropical storm.
    Extreme Northern Maine may have their first light frost tonight.

    1. Yes and it looks like it could threaten some of the islands. Meanwhile Katia comes close enough for me. Not going to be at the 40/70 line but maybe at the 40/65 mark.

  3. T.D. #14 (soon to be “Maria”) is going to have to be watched once again as far as the east coast is concerned. Henry Margusity this morning stated that if a trough sets up near the Tennesse Valley, then Maria will be pushed OTS (like Katia) but if the trough sets up near the Mississippi Valley, then we could have problems yet again…ugh!

    Obviously, scenario #1 is what we want.

    1. Also of note, today’s 14-day CPC outlook continues to show above normal rainfall for the entire east coast…suggesting to me at least that we will likely be suseptable to “tropical” activity for the foreseeable future.

  5. Fairly off topic, but, the dew points in Texas are unbelievable. 42F in Houston, TX with 16 percent relative humidity. While its 88 to 94F in most areas, once the sun sets tonight, the temps should be off to the races downward. Maybe some record lows with 50s and lower 60s…….

    1. Interesting stats Tom…who would have thought that Texans would have much better sleeping conditions than we had this past weekend?

      I also just heard on CBS Evening News that no rain is expected in Texas for 10 days or longer……sad. 🙁

  7. I wish we could send some of this rain down to them, but on the other hand Michelle Bachman thinks we are all being punished:) hope it’s ok to infuse some politics in my weather thoughts!!

  8. I hope everybody has a great day today, rain and more rain oh well. Heading out to the mug with my wife. We are married 9 happy years today.

  9. TK any thoughts if you think rain will be here tomorrow. Have a company event on Thompson island and from what I am seeing it looks very iffy.

      1. I hope We escape rain here tomorrow. The pool cover is in and they wanted to come tomorrow. Problem is the pool is not yet cleaned from the storm. They will be coming Friday in which case I need to get It done tomorrow, rain or no rain- YIKES.

  10. We have Maria as of 11AM. This is forecasted to remain a tropical storm as of the 11AM advisory and looks to track a little further south than Katia. It looks like from the cone of uncertainty a northward turn is going to take place early next week. The big question is when does that happen and what kind of impacts will there be to the U.S. Hopefully a trough is set up because that will protect the east coast.

  11. With Maria’s more “southerly” track, the SE coast is more vulnerable than with Katia, but hopefully she remains a tropical storm. With the passing of Irene and Katia, the Carribean waters should be considerably cooler…we will see.

  13. Well, today has reminded me of some winter storms, after all the heavy precip has ended, but the NE flow continues and there’s moisture coming off the ocean for another day. Persistent thick drizzle all day, although now, there’s a few heavy showers coming through.

  14. I was thinking the same thing Philip. To me the only thing good about November is Thanksgiving. Once the leaves are all of the trees and I am done raking them I am ready for the first snow of the season. My favorite part of the fall season is mid September through the end of October.

  15. Don’t be surprised if Maria ends up further away from the East Coast than Katia will be. Looks like it may encounter some very weak steering NE of the Caribbean and may sit, then get picked up by a trough and pulled over or even east of Bermuda in the days ahead. Many things have to fall into place before we know the eventual track for sure.

    I think we’ll have Nate buried deep in the Gulf of Mexico shortly, and that one may be primed for rapid strengthening. May even head toward upper Mexico or even Texas. Something to watch.

  17. From the weather is upside down department…….

    Winnipeg, Canada is 86F….Pensacola, FL is 79F…..

    In spite of our cool weather, most of the southern half of western and central Canada is quite warm….even Churchill, Canada near Hudson Bay is almost 70F.

    1. According to Brett Anderson of AccuWeather, much of southern Canada will be above normal this fall…interesting.

      1. Hi Philip.

        Yes, I saw that too. It also caught my attention that he predicts northern Canada to be colder than normal, which I think would imply less negative NAO, which would be opposite of last winter during December and January, when we got all the snow.

  18. As most of you know, I’m not a big fan of TWC any more. I used to be, but I think the emphasis is on all the wrong things in their programming. Just my opinion. I do have many fond memories of the local forecast music, and especially WeatherScan (the 24 hour non-human version from TWC). For several years, they featured the music of Trammell Starks, who composed and recorded about 40 songs for the channel. This is one of my favorites. Some of you may know it…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ig0Lr7zOwxE

    1. I saw that as well Jimmy…also the 14-day CPC outlook continues to show above normal rainfall which leads me to believe that our “tropical” connection will continue, next up probably Maria and/or Nate.

  21. It will be interesting to see around the 15th of this month if the EURO model Brett Anderson’s uses in his blog changes from last month with the winter outlook. Back then it was calling for normal temps and below normal precipitation.

    1. I can hardly wait to see it…hopefully it will help with my snowfall prediction. Right now I don’t have much confidence either way other than that I really doubt Boston will see anywhere near 80″+ of snow. 🙂

    1. I think the rain chances drop off rapidly after noon. Even the morning should not be as wet as this morning was.

  23. Hey Philip… I highly doubt this upcoming winter will be anything like last winter. I said no more than 50 inches for Boston last month but that could change. From things I am looking at no one is calling for below normal temps and as far as snowfall I have not seeing anyone saying below normal snowfall. I take from that a winter with near normal to slightly above normal snowfall and the same thing with the temperature department.
    For the Farmers’ Almanac readers. Old Farmers’ calling for a big snowstorm the end of January and Farmers’ Almanac calling for a big snowstorm between Feb 20th -23rd.
    I hope we get a few good Noreaster’s.

  24. I feel boston will end up with near 90 inches this winter but it will fall between mid Nov to second week of January. I think it will be similar to what we experienced but the lighter, fluffier snow (colder temps during storms). From then to the spring, cool and slightly damp.

  25. Hopefully that happens with the snowfall this winter.
    As long as we get a few good Noreaster’s I will be happy. I don’t want a winter like 01-02 or 06-07. I believe the 06-07 winter Boston was below 20 inches in the snowfall department.

      1. The 01-02 was easy to get over because of the Pats. The 06-07 was harder to take but I feel we were all optimistic because of the Beckett/Lowell trade.

      2. Thanks Philip with those numbers. Those winter’s stunk if you are a snowlover. I know 06-07 was an El Nino
        Winter but I am not sure if 01-02 was an El Nino Winter.

        1. Hmmm…I am pretty sure 01-02 was an El Nino winter as well. I may be wrong, but I can’t conceive a La Nina winter with so little snowfall plus mild temps to boot.

      3. good grief those numbers are just plain depressing.

        I seem to remember at this time last year on the BZ weather blog that many thought it was going to be a low snow winter. Is my memory playing tricks??

        I’m thinking the magic number is 67 inches for Boston. But would love Coastal’s 90 !!!

        1. As long as we do not have a repeat of last winter. Remember all that snow last winter caused some folks many problems. I think the winter scene from last winter was people with snow rakes cleaning off there roofs, that is if you could find a snow rake. I think one noreaster would be good and than smaller fluffy storms. But the way the weather has been who knows.

  26. Just looked at latest satellite loop. Katia looks to be heading straight north. When does she start curving east?

  28. There have got to be flash flood warnings coming soon for southeast Mass…..it is dark with continuous torrential rains.

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